Since the Spring Festival in 2021, driven by the bull market of the collective rise of chemical bulk products, the domestic potassium chloride market showed a trend of sharp rise in the first three quarters and wide fluctuation in the fourth quarter. After several rounds of increases in the first three quarters, the ex factory price of potassium chloride in domestic salt lakes finally reached 3270.00 yuan / ton in August, which is the highest point of the year. However, after the state issued the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing price, the price of potassium chloride began to fluctuate widely in mid October, rising and falling at 300 yuan / ton. According to the data monitored by the business society, the ex factory price of potassium chloride at the beginning of the year was 2160.00 yuan / ton, and the price of potassium chloride at the end of the year was 2890.00 yuan / ton, with a total increase of 33.80% during the year. The lowest price in the whole year is in the middle and early ten days of February, and the price is 2140.00 yuan / ton. The highest price in the whole year is in August and September, and the price is 3270.00 yuan / ton, with the maximum amplitude of 52.80% in the year.
From the statistical chart of port potassium chloride price, the port potassium chloride self lifting price in 2021 also showed a trend of sharp increase in the first three quarters and narrow fluctuation in the fourth quarter. The price of 62% white potassium in the port once reached a high of 4300 yuan / ton in the year. According to the statistical chart of potassium chloride import and export quantity, China’s potassium chloride import is about 7.28 million tons by November 2021.
In the first quarter, the potassium chloride market fell first and then rose. January continued the strong trend of December 2020. The domestic trading atmosphere of potassium chloride was general, the downstream demand was insufficient, and there were few new orders. The price of potassium chloride increased from 2160.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 2175.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 0.69% for the whole month. In February, after the Spring Festival, the upstream and downstream enterprises of potassium chloride started one after another, with strong upstream support and good downstream demand. The price of potassium chloride fell slightly, mainly sorting. The price of potassium chloride decreased by 0.92% from 2175.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 2155.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month. In March, the price of potassium chloride rose sharply. With the preparation of spring ploughing all over the country, agricultural fertilizer has entered the peak season. The potassium chloride equipment in the salt lake operates normally, with a daily output of 11000 tons from 6000-8000 tons in early February. However, some large traders stopped selling and were reluctant to sell potassium chloride, resulting in poor spot liquidity, tight overall supply and shortage of individual varieties in some regions, resulting in a large increase in the price of potassium fertilizer. The price of potassium chloride increased from 2155.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 2380.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 10.44%. In the first quarter, the overall price of potassium chloride increased by 10.19%.
The potassium chloride market continued to rise in the second quarter. In April, the price of potassium chloride continued to rise slightly. The price rose from 2380 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 2525.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 6.09%. The domestic potassium chloride plant has not been fully opened since its start-up, and there are many orders to be issued, which are still being shipped. The port stock of imported potassium at the port is about 2.5 million tons, but excluding the 1.5 million tons of national commercial reserves, the available source of imported potassium chloride at the port is even less than 1 million tons. The price of potassium chloride was temporarily stable in May. The national storage time of potash fertilizer is coming to an end, and the market wait-and-see atmosphere is gradually strong. In terms of port potash, the spot circulation is poor, and most of the supply is concentrated in the hands of large traders. In June, the price of potassium chloride continued to rise. The price of potassium chloride increased from 2525.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 2800.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 10.89%. The supply of potash fertilizer in the domestic market is tight, the supply of goods is tight, the price remains strong, and the bidding price of Salt Lake Group’s products has repeatedly reached new highs. In terms of imported potassium, the Hong Kong stock has continued to decline for seven weeks and has dropped to about 2.1 million tons. The circulation of potassium in border trade is small. There is a phenomenon of hoarding goods in the market to rise. The source of goods available for sale is tight. Brokers quote sporadically, with obvious intention to explore the rise. The transaction prices everywhere are chaotic, and most varieties have no obvious mainstream price. In the second quarter, the overall price of potassium chloride increased by 17.65%.
In the third quarter, the potassium chloride market was consolidated at a high level. In July, the price of potassium chloride increased from 2800.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 3270.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 16.79%. 8. In September, the price of potassium chloride remained at a high level of 3270 yuan / ton. In terms of domestic potassium, the start-up in Qinghai is normal, some small factories are overhauled, the spot supply is limited, the shipment is normal, there is a tight supply of marketable goods, the domestic inventory is relatively low, the transaction prices are chaotic, and the transaction negotiation is mainly. In terms of imported potassium, affected by the continuous rise of the international market and the reduction of ship arrivals in the market, the price rose rapidly, and traders were reluctant to sell and wait for rise. In terms of border trade potassium, the circulation of potassium chloride at border trade ports is small, there is a phenomenon of hoarding goods to rise, and the available supply of goods is tight.
The market of potassium chloride fluctuated widely in the fourth quarter. The price of potassium chloride fell sharply in October. The supply of chemical fertilizer remained stable, the domestic leading enterprises of potassium chloride were punished, and the price of potassium chloride fell. The price decreased from 3270.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 2890.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 11.62%. In November, the price of potassium chloride increased slightly, from 2890.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 3190.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 10.38%. The operation of potassium chloride plants in Salt Lake and zangge is OK, but the market supply continues to be tight due to transportation and other reasons. In December, the price of potassium chloride fell to 2890.00 yuan / ton. The downstream compound fertilizer plant promoted the winter storage slowly, the purchase enthusiasm was not high, the market transactions of high priced potassium chloride were limited, the price decline of nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizer became more and more obvious in the last ten days, and the price of potassium chloride also began to fall. The overall price of potassium chloride fell by 11.62% in the fourth quarter
International potash fertilizer consolidation at a high level, downstream procurement enthusiasm is general, and potassium chloride is bullish in the future
In the middle and late January, the market of potassium chloride may rise slightly. The spot CFR price of potassium chloride in Brazil has reached US $800 / ton, US $770 / ton in South Africa, US $730 / ton in Australia and US $620 / ton in Southeast Asia, nearly three times higher than that at the beginning of the year. International potassium chloride support is obvious. Belarus suffered sanctions, sea transportation was closed, and other modes of transportation increased costs, blocked exports and increased prices. At the same time, the rising prices of agricultural products and other commodities have stimulated farmers’ enthusiasm for planting, resulting in a sharp increase in the demand for potassium fertilizer, resulting in a situation of short supply, forming a hot situation of chemical fertilizer this year. In the future, the price of domestic potassium chloride is expected to rise slightly.