The domestic phenol market has a strong focus before the holiday. In the early stage of the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, the atmosphere of the inquiry in the East China region tends to be better. The spot price is tight, and the traders are concentrating on raising prices. The market is expected to increase, but the terminal still purchases on demand, which is obviously inconsistent with the high position. The North China area was parked by Zhongsha No. 3 and is currently under restart. It is expected to be available tomorrow. The offer in South China is firm, and Huizhou Zhongxin is 12,100 yuan / ton, which is in short supply.

Phenol main market offer situation: As of now, the mainstream reference offer in East China is 11,200 yuan / ton, Yanshan area supply is tight, the price continues to be high, the offer is at 11,600 yuan / ton, the Shandong supply is tight, the mainstream offer is 11,400 yuan / ton, Henan The regional offer was 11,500 yuan / ton, and the South China region’s offer rose to 11,700 yuan / ton.

On the whole, the market demand is not good. The phenol analysts of the business community believe that the phenol market in East China is mainly stable in the short term, and the market offer is 11200-11300 yuan/ton.

On September 17, the price of cobalt in the main non-ferrous metal spot market in China remained stable. The average price of cobalt was priced at RMB 49,0250.00/ton, which was stable compared with the previous trading day, up 13.97% year-on-year.

On September 17, the price of metal cobalt in major domestic manufacturers was temporarily stabilized. The average price of cobalt ex-factory was 52,5000.00 yuan/ton, which was stable compared with the previous trading day.

On September 16th, the cobalt commodity index was 176.17, which was the same as yesterday. It was 26.26% lower than the highest point of 238.91 points (2018-04-15) in the cycle, which was 152.25% higher than the lowest point of 69.84 on July 5, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

On September 17, the domestic price of cobalt was temporarily stabilized, and the price of cobalt powder in Shanghai remained stable, and the actual transaction price remained stable. On September 17, the domestic cobalt price of Wuxi Stainless Steel Electronic Trading Center was 476,000-496,000 yuan/ton, and the price of cobalt was stable. On September 17, the stock was 472 tons, and the inventory decreased by 2.25 tons. The supply of cobalt is at a high level, and the cobalt market is in an oversupply state. In terms of demand, the cobalt market has a certain transaction, but the market is still based on on-demand procurement. In the international market, the price of cobalt and MB in the LEM market in London increased, and the domestic market followed suit. However, the overall supply-demand relationship did not change significantly. The high supply and low demand led to the weakening of the cobalt price and the risk of falling. However, due to the high price of the international cobalt mine in the early stage, the import cost of cobalt mine is relatively high, and the space for cobalt price decline is limited.

In terms of market outlook, the increase in international cobalt prices has led to a rise in domestic cobalt prices. However, due to the absence of major changes in the supply and demand of cobalt, the overall supply of cobalt is oversupplied, cobalt prices are difficult to maintain, and domestic cobalt prices are still at risk of decline. It is expected that the price of cobalt will fluctuate and stabilize. The price of cobalt is stable.

On September 13, the price of metallic cobalt in the domestic non-ferrous metal spot market rose, and the average price of cobalt was 48,9750.00 yuan / ton, up 0.67% from the previous trading day.

On September 13, the domestic major manufacturers’ metal cobalt prices were temporarily stabilized. The average price of cobalt ex-factory was 52,5000.00 yuan/ton, which was stable compared with the previous trading day.

On September 12th, the cobalt commodity index was 175.00, which was 2.25 points lower than yesterday, which was 26.75% lower than the highest point of 238.91 points (2018-04-15) in the cycle, which was 150.57 higher than the lowest point of 69.84 on July 5, 2016. %. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

On September 13, the domestic price of cobalt was down, the price of cobalt powder in Shanghai was stable, and the actual transaction price fell. On September 13, the domestic cobalt price of Wuxi Stainless Steel Electronic Trading Center was 472,000-496,000 yuan/ton, the price of cobalt was stable, and the inventory on September 13 was 457.5 tons, and the inventory increased by 12 tons. The supply of cobalt was at a high level, and the sudden drop in cobalt price suddenly stimulated the desire of downstream enterprises to purchase. On the 12th, the turnover of cobalt was increased, but the market still focused on on-demand purchase. The price of cobalt and MB in the international London LEM market rose, and the domestic market followed suit. Rising, but the overall domestic supply and demand relationship has not changed, high supply and low demand led to weak cobalt prices and increased risk of downside. However, due to the high price of the international cobalt mine in the previous period, the import cost of cobalt mine is relatively high, and the space for cobalt price decline is limited.

In terms of market outlook, the increase in international cobalt prices has led to a rise in domestic cobalt prices. However, due to the absence of major changes in the supply and demand of cobalt, the overall supply of cobalt is oversupplied, cobalt prices are difficult to maintain, and domestic cobalt prices are still at risk of decline. It is expected that the price of cobalt will fluctuate and stabilize. The price of cobalt is stable.

On September 12, the price of metallic cobalt in the domestic non-ferrous metal spot market fell, and the average price of cobalt was 48,5600.00 yuan / ton, down 1.27% from the previous trading day.

On September 12th, the price of metal cobalt in major domestic manufacturers was temporarily stabilized. The average price of cobalt ex-factory was 52,5000.00 yuan/ton, which was stable compared with the previous trading day.

On September 11th, the cobalt commodity index was 177.25, which was 1.17 points higher than yesterday, which was 25.81% lower than the highest point of 238.91 points (2018-04-15) in the cycle, which was 153.79 higher than the lowest point of 69.84 on July 5, 2016. %. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

On September 12, the domestic price of cobalt was down, the price of cobalt powder in Shanghai was stable, and the actual transaction price fell. On September 12, the domestic cobalt price of Wuxi Stainless Steel Electronic Trading Center was 472,000-496,000 yuan/ton, the price of cobalt was stable, and the inventory on September 12 was 445.5 tons, and the inventory decreased by 186.5 tons. The supply of cobalt is at a high level, and the downstream enterprises are purchasing on demand, but the market is still dominated by the wait-and-see. The cobalt price in the international market has fallen, causing the domestic market to follow suit. The high supply and low demand have caused the cobalt price to rise and the risk of decline has increased. However, due to the high price of the international cobalt mine in the previous period, the import cost of cobalt mine is relatively high, and the space for cobalt price decline is limited.

In the market outlook, the international cobalt price fell, causing the domestic cobalt price to follow the trend. However, due to the lack of major changes in the supply and demand of the cobalt market, the overall supply of cobalt was oversupplied, the cobalt price was difficult to maintain, and the domestic cobalt price still had a downside risk. It is expected that the cobalt price in the market will fluctuate and stabilize. Cobalt prices have stabilized after falling slightly.

Price trend

On September 10, the metal zinc market in the domestic market fell. The average price of metal zinc in the domestic spot market was 21,783.75 yuan/ton, down by 0.04% from the previous trading day; the average ex-factory price was 22,318.57 yuan/ton, compared with the previous trading day. The price rose by 0.03%.

On September 9th, the zinc (market) commodity index was 124.48, which was the same as yesterday. It was down by 20.09% from the highest point of 155.77 points (2017-10-09) in the cycle, which was 72.22 points higher than the lowest point of 72.28 on November 22, 2015. %. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

On September 10, the price of zinc rose, and the recent zinc price fluctuated. On September 10, domestic zinc prices were mixed, and the price was generally stable. The overall demand of the zinc market has not changed significantly, the market performance is struggling, and the zinc warehouse inventory is at a low level, but the inventory of the Shanghai futures market has increased recently. On September 10, the inventory of zinc ingots in Shanghai futures market was 1,889 tons, and the inventory increased by 176 tons. The market activity of zinc ingots was poor, and the overall transaction volume was low.

Market outlook: After the market outlook, market demand has not improved significantly, and zinc prices have not been able to rise. However, the inventory of futures zinc ingots is at a low level, the market supply has not increased significantly, and the zinc price will not produce a large decline. The zinc price growth in the market is weak, but the supply is limited, and the price is difficult to fall sharply. It is expected that the zinc price in the market will fluctuate.

On Monday, Bahrain and Oman crude oil ministers said that China’s demand for oil has slowed due to the tight international trade situation and has had an impact on oil prices.

Middle East Oil Minister worried that Bahraini crude oil minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Khalifa Al Khalifa said in an interview with CNBC that there are risks in current oil demand:

“Do demand continue to be as strong as before? Obviously, if trade issues continue, it will affect demand in a negative way.”

Oman crude oil minister Mohammed bin Hamad Al Rumhy also mentioned that the current tight trade situation has led to a decline in China’s demand for oil, which has not received sufficient attention from the market. Now, they should not only pay attention to the supply side, but what happens when Iran stops supplying? At the same time, it is also concerned about the demand side, that is, China will reduce the consumption of oil, and what impact will it have?

He added that many people agree with him that oil demand will be affected by trade frictions:

“I think if trade divergence increases, the reduction in demand will not be conducive to oil prices.”

However, Reuters quoted Carsten Fritsch, senior commodities analyst at Commerzbank, as saying that although trade tensions may slow Asian oil demand, a slowdown in demand will easily offset the decline in Iranian crude oil supply.

And some analysts believe that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will continue to adjust the supply of crude oil to ensure the balance of supply and demand in the global oil market.

It is worth noting that oil prices have remained stable over the past two years, with current oil prices ranging from $70 to $80 per barrel, thanks in large part to the production cuts between OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers.

China’s demand for oil slows down In January this year, data from the US Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that China’s average daily crude oil imports in 2017 were 8.4 million barrels per day, surpassing the US’s 7.9 million barrels per day. Become the world’s largest importer of crude oil. Among them, 56% of China’s crude oil imports come from OPEC countries.

According to the 2017 annual report of the Central Bank of Oman, China has been the largest exporter of crude oil in Oman for 10 consecutive years, and its export volume has more than doubled in 10 years.

However, the latest data released by the General Administration of Customs of China in August showed that China’s crude oil import growth rate was 3.68% in July this year, and 11.81% in the same period of last year. From January to July this year, China imported 261 million tons of crude oil, a year-on-year increase of 5.6%. Compared with last year’s increase of 13.6%, the growth rate of China’s crude oil imports has dropped sharply in terms of single or cumulative months.

The International Energy Research Institute had previously predicted that by 2024, India would replace China as the world’s largest demander of crude oil.

Renewable energy is becoming the core of energy transformation OPEC once wrote in the “2040 Global Oil Outlook Report” that China’s energy demand is expected to be lower than previously expected because the Chinese government is taking active measures to accelerate renewable Energy transformation.

At present, China has launched a campaign to close several existing coal mines and restrict the construction of new coal mines. Taking Heilongjiang Province as an example, the province requires that by the end of 2020, the number of coal mines in the province will be greatly reduced, the mine structure will be significantly optimized, and the capacity of large and medium-sized mines will account for more than 60%. In this regard, Heilongjiang Jixi, Hegang, Shuangyashan, Qitaihe four coal mines promised to close more than 100 coal mines by the end of this year.

According to the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration, the “Energy Production and Consumption Revolution Strategy (2016-2030)” was released, and it is promised that by 2030, China’s total energy consumption will be controlled within 6 billion tons of standard coal, and non-fossil energy accounts for The proportion of primary energy consumption is about 20%, and the proportion of natural gas is about 15%. The demand for new energy is mainly met by clean energy.

On August 27th, the PX Commodity Index was 66.60, which was 0.2 points higher than yesterday, which was 34.96% lower than the highest point in the cycle of 102.40 points (2013-02-28), which was 46.21 points higher than the lowest point of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. %. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date)

Recently, the domestic p-xylene market price trend has been temporarily stabilized. The on-site installation of Pengzhou Petrochemical has been overhauled, and the Urumqi petrochemical plant has started 50%. The Tenglong aromatics plant has been in operation, other devices are temporarily operating stably, and the domestic paraxylene market is normal. The operating rate of PX devices in Asia is less than 70%. On August 27th, the closing price of the paraxylene market in Asia increased by USD 24/ton, and the closing price was USD 1251-1253/ton FOB Korea and USD 1270-1272/ton CFR China, USA WTI crude oil futures market price rose in October, reported 68.87 US dollars / barrel, or 0.15 US dollars, Brent crude oil futures prices rose to 76.21 US dollars / barrel, an increase of 0.39 US dollars, the upstream raw material prices rose slightly, coupled with the recent textile The industry’s market remained high and the PX market price rose slightly. The downstream PTA market was affected by the delay in resumption of production due to equipment maintenance. The PTA supply was slightly tight or continued. By the 28th, the domestic PTA operating rate was around 81.6%, the PTA price continued to rise, and the average price of the East China region was 9100-9150 yuan. /Ton the vicinity of the self-raising, coupled with the downstream production and sales maintained relatively high level of smooth operation, PTA is still in a balanced small de-stocking state, it is expected that the PX market price will rise slightly in the later period.

First, the trend analysis

As shown in the above chart, domestic copper prices fell sharply after this week, and the domestic spot copper price was 49572.5 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 48050 yuan/ton at the weekend, down 3.07%.

Second, the market analysis

The Shanghai copper index rose slightly by 49,900 yuan at the beginning of this week. Since then, the price pressure has accelerated to a low of 47,270 yuan. This week, it finally closed at 47,720 yuan, down 1890 yuan, or 3.81%. The index weekly position increased by 26,010 hands to 625,000 hands. This week, the price of copper has weakened sharply. The low position in the middle of the week attracted the downstream replenishment. After the delivery, the market supply was in short supply, and the spot rose to the water. The middle-man traders at the end of the week boosted. According to the survey results of the Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Trading Center, most traders see short-term copper prices stabilized and oscillating, and the premiums will remain high.

On the macro side: Trump’s government practices are radical. China, Russia, Iran and Turkey have been suppressed to varying degrees. This week, the Lira plunged, the Turkish crisis, and the US dollar rose, which constantly triggered market pessimism and put pressure on copper prices. At the end of the week, China and the United States planned to conduct trade consultations. The market sentiment was slightly eased and the copper market rebounded slightly.

On the supply side, this week Chile’s Escondida copper mine reached an agreement to avoid strikes, supply is expected to increase, and copper prices are under pressure.

Third, the outlook outlook

Based on the above situation, the business community’s non-ferrous branch copper analysts believe that this week’s Turkish crisis triggered a wave of asset-selling in the whole market. The strong US dollar caused the non-ferrous metals to fall sharply. In addition, Chile’s Escondida copper mine reached an agreement to avoid strikes, and supply expectations increased. The price of copper has fallen sharply. However, the future depreciation of the RMB and the accelerated infrastructure in the second half of the year will bring good benefits to the copper price. It is expected that the short-term copper price will fluctuate and the price will be around RMB 48,000/ton.

Price trend: As of August 10, the average domestic ex-factory price of naphtha in China is 6,957.50 yuan / ton, up 2.95% from 6408.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and the actual transaction price of ground naphtha is 6900-7200 yuan / Ton.

Industry chain: According to business monitoring, the US WTI crude oil was US$68.96/barrel at the beginning of the week, US$66.81/barrel at the weekend, and the weekly increase was -3.12%. Brent crude oil was US$73.45/barrel at the beginning of the week. At $72.07/barrel, the weekly gains and losses were -1.88%.

Macro: In July 2018, the Business Social Enterprise’s Commodity Supply and Demand Index (BCI) was 0.12, with an increase of 0.59%, reflecting that the manufacturing economy was expanding in the month and the economy was running smoothly.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the 32nd week of 2018 (8.6-8.10), there were 13 kinds of commodities in the energy sector that rose in the energy sector. Among them, one of the products with a price increase of more than 5%, accounting for the monitored products in the sector. 6.3% of the number; the top 3 commodities were dimethyl ether (5.23%), methanol (4.67%) and coke (3.98%). There were 3 kinds of commodities with a decrease in the chain, and 1 product with a drop of more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored products in the sector; the top 3 products were LNG (-5.80%) and WTI crude oil (-3.12). %), Brent crude oil (-1.88%). This week’s average price increase was 1.78%.

Market outlook: Business community energy analysts believe that the international crude oil shocks down, the downstream wait-and-see mood deepens, but the recent repairs in the refining, low naphtha stocks, stable refinery demand, coupled with the rise in the price of naphtha, on the stone brain The oil market has a certain supporting role. It is expected that the recent price of naphtha will rise slightly in the near future, and the average price range may be 6500-6800 yuan/ton.

Under the rotation of commodity style, chemical products futures have recently entered a rebound stage, in which methanol and PTA futures prices are the strongest. As of yesterday’s close, the main contract of methanol futures closed at 3,225 yuan / ton, the highest record since February 2013, the double volume also increased.

Analysts pointed out that the methanol price has been stable and rising since last week. The main contract price exceeded 3,000 yuan / ton. The price was unstoppable. Yesterday, the intraday price hit a high of 3,300 yuan, hitting a new high in five years. Among them, the last three The cumulative increase on the trading day exceeded 10%. From a fundamental point of view, recent exchange rate fluctuations have raised the cost of methanol imports, and port inventories are still at a low level. Overall, the market is generally optimistic about the rising methanol prices.

Low inventory into the main reason for higher prices

In the recent methanol spot market, the logic of the current price rise is that the current port inventory is at a low level, and the short-term low inventory phenomenon is difficult to change due to difficulties in both domestic and foreign purchase routes.

Fundamentally, according to the inventory fluctuations of previous years, it is generally the traditional off-season of the downstream of the methanol industry from July to September of each year until the “Golden September and Silver 10” is consumed again. However, this year’s situation is quite special, and port stocks have not been improved.

Relevant data show that as of August 2, the inventory of Huadong Port was 268,000 tons, and there was no upward trend. The circulation of Jiangsu Province was 52,200 tons, and Zhejiang was only 0.3 million tons. Although the mainland cargo ships have recently arrived in the Ningbo and Zhangpu areas, the speed of unloading in the two places is extremely slow, and some of the goods are still waiting for unloading, but no methanol is expected to be put into storage.

Some industry insiders pointed out that the recent methanol import has not improved. It is estimated that the methanol import in July was 565,500 tons. Although it increased by 106,500 tons compared with June, it still declined compared with the usual. Considering that the current domestic regional prices are still at a low level relative to the global market, the export volume will continue to increase in August, and there is still a lot of uncertainty in the spot price of methanol.

At the same time, exchange rate fluctuations have also raised import costs. At the beginning of June, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar was 6.4, and now it is 6.85, which is equivalent to an increase of 80 yuan per ton. The domestic main port CIF has no advantage over other regions. The Chinese main port price is 402 USD/ton.

Shenyin Wanguo Futures analysis believes that the collective rise of this methanol and other chemical products, mainly due to low inventory, exchange rate fluctuations lead to poor imports, large port arbitrage range, downstream products, and the convergence of nearby delivery and other factors. . The 1809 contract may still have room for growth in the short term, but it is a fishtail market and has a high risk. It is not recommended to continue to pursue more. In the short term, attention should be paid to the follow-up situation and inventory changes in the East China spot market.

Simultaneous enlargement of transactions and positions

“Securities Daily” reporters according to yesterday’s after-hours data observation, the organization’s transactions in methanol futures and positions have also been enlarged. From the top 20 main institutional seats, the total transaction volume was 1,333,800 lots, an increase of 540,000 lots from the previous trading day; it showed that the methanol transaction was more active.

In addition, from the top 20 main institutional seats, the total holdings amounted to 310,000 contracts, an increase of 3,248 contracts compared with the previous trading day; correspondingly, the total number of sell orders was 289,000 contracts, an increase from the previous trading day. Warehouse 16671 hands; in comparison with long and short positions, the market atmosphere is still dominated by long positions.

In terms of institutions, Huatai Futures, Haitong Futures and Huishang Futures traded at the highest volume on the day, with 208,000 contracts, 119,000 contracts and 87,000 contracts respectively, both of which increased year-on-year. However, in the long position, although Huatai Futures, Haitong Futures and Yongan Futures ranked higher, Huatai Futures reduced its position by 14,000 contracts, indicating that some of the bulls’ confidence was loose. At the same time, in terms of short positions, Yongan Futures, Huatai Futures and Haitong Futures ranked high, but Yongan Futures seats reduced their positions significantly, and nearly 10,000 hands were reduced.

From the perspective of market capital flow, the overall domestic commodity market has been mainly net inflows, and black and chemical products are the most popular. Yesterday, the black and coal sectors had a net inflow of 2.162 billion yuan and 572 million yuan respectively, but the chemical sector reversed. The situation is out of 113 million yuan. In addition, Apple’s futures rose sharply in the end, with a total of 250 million yuan inflows.

Shenyin Wanguo futures from the perspective of positions, 1809 contract in the case of near delivery, against the trend of Masukura. Since July 31, 50,000 consecutive positions have been added, but 45,000 hands have been lightened on the 6th, indicating that speculative sentiment has declined.