Price trend

Recently, the domestic ABS market has been weak, with a significant decline in spot prices. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of May 22, the average price of ABS sample products was 10700 yuan/ton, a decrease of -5.73% compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of supply: Recently, the high load situation in the ABS industry has continued, with enterprises resuming work and undergoing maintenance, and the overall load has fluctuated at a high level. The operating rate of domestic ABS is close to 90%, and the overall narrow adjustment has been around 88% recently. The on-site spot supply continues to be abundant, competition intensifies, and supply side pressure is high. Domestic enterprise inventories continue to rise, putting pressure on manufacturers and merchants, and both prices have declined.

In terms of raw materials, the overall performance of ABS upstream three materials has been negative recently. The market situation of raw material acrylonitrile has turned downward. At present, the price of acrylonitrile raw materials has slightly increased but is still at a low level, with weak support for acrylonitrile; The downstream atmosphere is weak, and prices have decreased slightly, while the demand for acrylonitrile continues to be weak; In addition, the supply side has slightly improved, and the acrylonitrile market has slightly declined.

Recently, the domestic butadiene market price continues to fall. The external market has a relatively abundant supply of goods and the transaction price is constantly decreasing, which has a significant drag on the domestic spot market. At the same time, the main production enterprise Sinopec lowered its quotation within the week, and some early maintenance enterprises in Northeast China have resumed their supply of goods by bidding and entering the market, resulting in abundant supply, causing the butadiene market to continue to decline.

It can be seen from the figure below that the price of styrene market has continued to decline recently. The international crude oil price has dragged down the weakness of the pure benzene market, resulting in poor cost support. Downstream markets are mostly in the off-season, mainly in demand. Domestic styrene supply is relatively abundant, and spot transactions are poor. The styrene market has fluctuated and declined.

In terms of demand: Last week, downstream factories, including the main terminal appliance industry, showed average enthusiasm for stocking up. The manufacturer’s mentality is cautious and wait-and-see, and overall demand improvement is limited. The actual trading volume on the market is weak, and the smoothness of goods delivery is poor.

Future Market Forecast

Recently, the three upstream materials of ABS have all declined, which has not provided sufficient support for the cost side of ABS. Nearly 90% of petrochemical plants have started construction, and the market supply continues to be abundant. Poor demand side support, overall maintaining a weak and rigid demand pattern. The stacked inventory position continues to rise, and the mentality of merchants has softened, with operations leaning towards giving up profits and taking orders. It is expected that in the short term, the ABS market may continue to be weak due to the impact of supply and demand contradictions.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic aggregated MDI market is organized and operated. From May 15 to 19, the price of the domestic aggregate MDI market fell from 15160 yuan/ton to 15060 yuan/ton, with a weekly drop of 0.66%, 1.44% month on month and 15.68% year-on-year. The overall atmosphere of the domestic aggregated MDI market is relatively bearish, with little fluctuation in traders’ quotations and an increase in market supply. At the same time, the bearish factors on the cost side have intensified, resulting in a weak and volatile aggregated MDI market.

On the supply side, the overall changes in the device are not significant. The Shanghai Lianheng 590000 ton/year MDI mother liquor device is expected to start shutdown and maintenance around June, lasting for about a month. In addition, the initial maintenance plan for the 130000+70000 ton/year MDI distillation unit in Dongcao, Japan, is expected to be around January, which will affect the 80000 ton/year MDI distillation unit in Dongcao Ruian, China. It is expected that the supply and inventory of goods will decrease slightly.

On the cost side, raw material pure benzene: The domestic pure benzene market continues to be weak, and the overall demand atmosphere is weak. Downstream consumption of raw material inventory is the main factor. On May 19th, the benchmark price of pure benzene for Shangshang Society was 6843.83 yuan/ton, a decrease of -7.94% compared to the beginning of this month (7433.83 yuan/ton). Raw material aniline: Domestic aniline is in weak operation. On May 19th, the benchmark price of aniline in Shangshang Society was 10200.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -13.38% compared to the beginning of this month (11775.00 yuan/ton). The cost side of aggregated MDI is relatively weak.

On the demand side, the overall downstream follow-up is relatively slow, and the transaction atmosphere has significantly weakened compared to the previous period. The short-term aggregate MDI demand side is relatively short.

In the future market forecast, both cost and demand are bearish, and analysts from Business Society’s aggregated MDI predict that the domestic aggregated MDI market is operating in a weak trend.

1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the above figure, copper prices have slightly declined this week. As of the end of this week, the spot copper quotation is 64638.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.84% from the 67220 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and a year-on-year decrease of 18.37%.

Copper weekly rise and fall chart

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of Business Society, in the past three months, the price has dropped by 7% and increased by 5%. Recently, copper prices have fallen weakly.

LME copper inventory

Macroscopically, the International Monetary Fund has stated that if the United States defaults on its debt, it will have a very serious negative impact on the US and global economy. Biden was originally scheduled to postpone negotiations on the debt ceiling with House Speaker McCarthy on Friday until next week. Federal Reserve hawkish official Kalikash stated that despite a short-term slowdown, inflation remains too high, and the Federal Reserve will have to maintain a tightening monetary policy for a longer period of time. The Bank of England announced a 25 basis point increase in its benchmark interest rate to 4.5% and stated that further tightening of monetary policy is necessary if there is more holding pressure on inflation. The recent release of China’s economic data is generally poor. Yesterday’s inflation and social finance data fell short of market expectations, sparking concerns about domestic demand in the market.

On the supply side: The production and port transportation issues of overseas mines have been gradually resolved, and processing costs have stabilized without changing the loose situation. With the arrival of the intensive maintenance period for smelting enterprises, the supply of crude copper may be tightened again, and the production of electrolytic copper will be suppressed, and the import volume of electrolytic copper is also limited.

On the demand side: The demand for terminal copper has not increased during the peak season, and the operating rate of copper companies is generally lower than the same period last year. Overseas inventory continues to rise.

In summary, with the end of the traditional consumption peak season of “Gold, Silver, and Four”, there are obvious signs of weakness in the consumer end. And under the influence of continuous interest rate hikes overseas, hidden inventory has become increasingly apparent, making copper fundamentals even more vulnerable. The maintenance of smelting enterprises may have some support. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of bromine is weak this week. At the beginning of the week, the average market price was 25200 yuan/ton, while on the weekend, the average market price was 25100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.4% and a year-on-year decrease of 55.18%. On May 14th, the bromine commodity index was 88.07, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 64.08% from the cycle’s highest point of 245.18 points (2021-10-27), and an increase of 49.47% from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29, 2014. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

2、 Market analysis

Bromine prices have been weak this week. The mainstream market price in Shandong is around 24500-25500 yuan/ton. Bromine supply exceeds demand, and seawater bromine production still shows an increasing trend. Downstream support is average, and the flame retardant and intermediate industries are still mainly purchasing according to demand in the near future, and there is a phenomenon of price pressure. Bromine enterprises have stable production, average shipments, and relatively average mentality among operators.

In terms of raw materials, the domestic sulfur price has increased this week, with an average market price of 750 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 763.33 yuan/ton at the weekend. The price has increased by 1.78%, a year-on-year decrease of 80.19%. The manufacturer has no inventory pressure, mainly focuses on shipping, and downstream follows up on demand. The enthusiasm for purchasing in the market is average, and the short-term sulfur market is on the sidelines for consolidation.

It is predicted that the price of bromine will be weak in the near future. Although the upstream sulfur price has risen, the demand for downstream flame retardants and intermediates in the bromine industry is generally following up. The supply of bromine is sufficient in the near future, and the overall wait-and-see mentality is mainly focused. It is expected that the short-term bromine price will be weak and the consolidation operation situation will depend on the downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend

Taking the sulfuric acid rutile titanium dioxide with a large volume of goods in the domestic market as an example, according to the monitoring data of the business community, the market price of titanium dioxide is basically stable this week. The average price of domestic titanium dioxide is 16950 yuan/ton.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic titanium dioxide market is basically stable this week. Overall, the performance of the international market is decent, while the trading situation in the domestic market is relatively light. At present, the demand in the domestic market is not good, and actual transactions are cautious. Downstream customers are more wait-and-see and purchase according to demand. At present, there is significant cost pressure on enterprises, with price stability being the main focus. Up to now, most domestic rutile titanium dioxide quotations are between 16000-17500 yuan/ton; The quotation of anatase titanium dioxide is about 14500-15000 yuan/ton.

In terms of titanium concentrate, the price of titanium concentrate in Panxi region has been lowered this week. At present, the transaction situation in the titanium concentrate market is average, and there is significant pressure to sell goods. Downstream titanium dioxide enterprises are under cost pressure, and their procurement inquiries are increasing. They are mainly wait-and-see, but actual transactions are relatively cautious. As of now, the tax-free quotation for grade 38 42 titanium concentrate is around 1520-1500 yuan/ton, the tax-free quotation for grade 46 10 titanium concentrate is around 2230-2280 yuan/ton, and the quotation for grade 47 20 titanium concentrate is around 2300-2350 yuan/ton. In the short term, the market price of titanium concentrate is weak and stable, and the actual transaction price is discussed separately.

In terms of sulfuric acid, the price of domestic sulfuric acid market dropped sharply this week. The price of sulfuric acid has decreased from 215 yuan/ton last Friday to 196 yuan/ton this Friday, with a decrease of 8.84%. The upstream sulfur market has recently experienced a slight decline, with average cost support. The downstream market of hydrofluoric acid and titanium dioxide declined slightly, and downstream customers’ purchasing enthusiasm for sulfuric acid weakened.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Analysts from titanium dioxide business agency believe that: the price of sulfuric acid market is down, the price of titanium concentrate in Panxi area is down, and the cost support of titanium dioxide is weak. In addition, the downstream demand for titanium dioxide is light at present, and the domestic titanium dioxide market is in poor trading and investment, with weak supply and demand. It is expected that the trend of titanium dioxide will be weak in the short term, and the actual transaction price will be discussed separately.

According to monitoring data from the Business Society, as of May 10, 2023, the reference price of n-butanol in the Shandong region of China was 8000 yuan/ton. Compared with May 7 (reference price of n-butanol was 8333 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 333 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4%.

From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that this week (5.7 to 5.10), the domestic butanol market in Shandong Province started a high decline trend, and the overall focus of the butanol market continued to decline. The n-butanol equipment that was partially shut down for maintenance in the early stage resumed operation this week, and Shandong large factories resumed pricing. The tight supply of n-butanol in the field was alleviated, and the support provided by the supply side to the market was relatively weak. Some n-butanol factories and suppliers, in order to actively ship, have successively lowered the price of n-butanol, with a reduction range of around 200 to 400 yuan/ton. As of May 10, the market price of n-butanol in Shandong Province is around 7900-8100 yuan/ton.

Aftermarket analysis of n-butanol

At present, the trading atmosphere of n-butanol on the market is average. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic Shandong n-butanol market will mainly adjust and operate in a narrow range. The specific trend still needs to pay more attention to specific news changes on the supply and demand side.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of 50% potassium sulfate at the beginning of this week was 3716 yuan/ton, while the price of 50% potassium sulfate at the end of this week was 3700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.45% in price.

The SDIC Luoke Factory mainly delivers orders in the early stage, and the market traders have different sales prices, and the transaction is relatively slow. At present, the market price of 52% of Luoke powder is mostly 3600-3800 yuan/ton, and the transaction is negotiable. The factory will carry out summer maintenance in late May. From the perspective of supply of goods, the supply of goods is large, but the demand follow-up is insufficient.

The supply of goods in the domestic potassium fertilizer market is still increasing, and there are still about 500000 tons of imported potassium from ports in the bonded zone. The available supply of goods at ports is relatively concentrated, mostly in the hands of large traders. The production of domestic potassium manufacturers’ devices is normal, and there are new sources of goods arriving in various regions.

Forecast: At present, the market is mostly wait-and-see, and the market price is expected to be dominated by weak consolidation trend.

According to the commodity analysis system of the business community, the price of domestic neopentyl glycol market fell slightly in April, and the average price of domestic neopentyl glycol mainstream market fell from 10666.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 10266.67 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decline of 3.75%. The price at the end of the month decreased by 39.85% year-on-year. On April 27th, the new pentanediol commodity index was 49.80, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 51.94% from the cycle’s highest point of 103.61 points (2021-09-22), and an increase of 15.68% from the lowest point of 43.05 points on November 28, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2021 to present)

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream manufacturers of neopentyl glycol have slightly decreased this month.

From the cost side, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price rose first and then fell in April. The price of isobutyraldehyde increased from 7633.33 yuan/ton on April 1st to 7866.67 yuan/ton on April 13th, an increase of 3.06%; Later, it fell to 7433.33 yuan/ton on April 28th, a decrease of 5.51%. Overall, the market price of isobutyraldehyde fell 2.62% in April. The factory price of formaldehyde in China slightly decreased in April. The price of formaldehyde decreased by 3.00% from 1223.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 1186.67 yuan/ton at the end of the month. On the whole, the price of upstream raw material market fell slightly, and the price support for neopentyl glycol was weak due to the influence of supply and demand.

Looking at the future market, the overall trend of neopentyl glycol in mid to early May may be mainly characterized by a slight fluctuation and decline. The upstream isobutyraldehyde and formaldehyde markets have slightly declined, with insufficient cost support. The downstream paint market is average, and the enthusiasm for downstream procurement has weakened. Analysts from Business Society believe that in the short term, the market for new pentanediol may experience slight fluctuations and declines due to various factors such as supply and demand, as well as raw materials.

The market for trichloromethane significantly declined in April. According to data from Business Society, as of April 27th, the price of trichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2362 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 11.68% from 2675 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The price of raw material methanol fluctuates weakly, and the cost support for trichloromethane is weak; The price of downstream refrigerant R22 slightly decreased at the end of the month, and there is a strong demand for support for trichloromethane but no new support; Methane chloride production fluctuates slightly, while the supply of trichloromethane is generally loose; At the beginning of the month, the market for trichloromethane declined due to the decrease in methanol prices and the restart of the Meilan plant; Afterwards, the supply and demand of trichloromethane remained stagnant until the end of the month, and the factory prices of enterprises were significantly reduced. The market situation for ammonium chloride decreased significantly at the end of the month.

In April, there was a slight fluctuation in the start of trichloromethane production, and overall supply pressure was high.

In April, the price of raw material methanol narrowed and stabilized, while the cost support for trichloromethane was weak. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 27th, the spot price of methanol was 2488 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.86% from 2561 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The high point during the cycle was 2571 yuan/ton, and the low point was 2401 yuan/ton.

In April, the price of R22 remained strong in the early stage and slightly declined in the later stage. At the beginning of the month, support for chloroform was strong and weak in the later stage. However, as the peak season passes, support for chloroform may weaken again in the later stage. Overall, the total production quota for R22 in 2023 will be reduced by 19% to 181800 tons.

Analysts from Business Society’s methane chloride data believe that although there is currently support in the demand side for trichloromethane, with the end of the later peak season, support may weaken, coupled with pressure on the supply side, it is expected that the trichloromethane market will be weak and consolidate in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of April 25th, the average price of industrial grade lithium hydroxide enterprises in China was 257500.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29.93% compared to April 1st.

The industrial grade lithium hydroxide market continued its downward trend in April. In the early days, the upstream lithium carbonate market fell, with poor support for the lithium hydroxide market. Supply side enterprises mainly focus on normal production, while domestic market demand is weak. The spot market transactions are limited, and the mentality of the operators is poor. The lithium hydroxide market is operating weakly. In the middle of the year, the sluggish market for upstream lithium carbonate continued, coupled with weaker downstream demand and lower purchasing intentions, putting pressure on high market prices for transactions and weakening the focus of lithium hydroxide negotiations. In the second half of the year, the cost support is still weak, with abundant market supply and poor demand. Downstream procurement is cautious, and the lithium hydroxide market continues to decline.

Upstream lithium carbonate, according to data monitoring by Business Society, the price of industrial grade lithium carbonate decreased in April 2023. As of April 25, the reference price for lithium carbonate industrial grade was 167000.00, a decrease of 25.65% compared to April 1 (224600.00).

Lithium hydroxide analysts from Business Society believe that current cost and demand support is still insufficient, and the market trading atmosphere is light. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic lithium hydroxide market may operate weakly and steadily, and more attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.