Price trend:

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic ABS market was upward in early September, and the spot price rose slightly. As of September 3, the average price of mainstream offer of general-purpose ABS was about 18150 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.69% over the average price at the beginning of the week and 21.81% over the same period last year.

Factor analysis:

Industrial chain: the recent decline in international oil prices has warmed up, and pure benzene has shown a steady rise. The cost support of styrene was greatly affected by its direct raw material pure benzene, and the spot price was pushed up. However, there is little demand follow-up, the market resistance point is clear, and the industry has a bearish attitude towards the future market.

The price of acrylonitrile was strong this week. Previously, the maintenance output has recently restarted, the market supply has rebounded, the positive effect on the supply side has weakened, and the actual orders of traders have decreased secretly.

The domestic butadiene market continued to be weak this week. It is reported that there is news about the start-up and production of new units in the industry. At present, there is an expectation of supply increment in the field, and the decrease in demand caused by the reduction of downstream enterprises. The contradiction between supply and demand on the floor increased, the spot price pressure was large, and the support for ABS was weakened.

The upstream market fluctuated, and the cost side support of ABS was hard to say. Last month, the operating rate of the industry was almost full. Recently, the maintenance and parking plans of some enterprises have been announced, and the on-site supply is expected to tighten. It is expected that the good supply side will gradually release the good spot price next week. At the same time, the traditional peak season is at hand, and there are goods preparation expectations in the downstream. However, as far as the current situation is concerned, users have a strong resistance to high price sources, and there is no large number of goods preparation operations.

Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that the spot market of ABS was strong in early September, and the trend of the three upstream materials fluctuated, which generally contributed less to ABS. The industry load is expected to decline at a high level. At present, in the traditional peak season, the demand volume expectation is superimposed on the good of the tightening of the supply side. Although there are few on-site transactions and the mentality is contradictory, the ABS is good and stable. It is expected that the ABS spot market may be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the near future.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of August 31, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in the mainstream areas of China was around 563 yuan / ton, up 13 yuan / ton or 2.42% compared with the price on August 1 (the reference average price of phosphorus ore was 550 yuan / ton).

In early August, the domestic phosphorus ore market as a whole operated stably at a high level, the mining operation rate was low, the spot supply of medium and high-end phosphorus ore was tight, and most orders were from old customers. In late August, on the 16th, the domestic phosphate ore market closed to the high end again. Some mining enterprises in Guizhou raised the price of medium and high-end phosphate rock again, by about 10-30 yuan / ton. The price of 30% phosphate rock freight plant is near 510-550 yuan / ton, and the price of 28% phosphate rock freight plant is near 470-490 yuan / ton. Subsequently, the domestic phosphate ore market continued to operate at a high level. As of August 31, the quotation of 28% ammonium phosphate ore ship board in Hubei was around 560-580 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of 30% grade phosphorus ore of mining enterprises in Hebei is 650 yuan / ton. The quotation of 8% grade phosphate rock freight plant of mining enterprises in Guangxi is 490 yuan / ton.

According to the business agency, the following is the current price of phosphate rock in some parts of China (for reference only)

product region grade Price remarks

Phosphate rock Guizhou 30% 510-550 yuan / ton Factory price

Phosphate rock Guizhou 28% 470-490 yuan / ton Factory price

Ammonium phosphate ore Hubei 28% 570 yuan / ton Ship board price

Phosphate rock Guangxi 30% 500-560 yuan / ton Factory price

Phosphate rock Guangxi 28% 460-490 yuan / ton Factory price

Downstream yellow phosphorus, affected by power rationing in Yunnan in July, the price of yellow phosphorus rose too fast, and the quotation was about 28000-30000 yuan / ton. The downstream has limited acceptance of high priced yellow phosphorus. The price of yellow phosphorus began to decline in early August. In the second week of August, the price of yellow phosphorus fell to about 24000-25000 yuan / ton, and then the price of yellow phosphorus was relatively stable. In the last week of August, yellow phosphorus production decreased slightly compared with last week. Yellow phosphorus manufacturers mainly issue early orders, and some manufacturers temporarily stop external quotation. The shortage of yellow phosphorus spot has intensified, and the price of yellow phosphorus has risen rapidly. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 27000-28000 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation in Sichuan is about 28000 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation in Guizhou is about 27000-28000 yuan / ton. Downstream appropriate procurement, on-site spot is still tight, market confidence is good, and the price of yellow phosphorus is high.

For downstream phosphoric acid, in August, the price of phosphoric acid market continued to rise due to cost support. The price fluctuation was concentrated in the second half of the month, with an increase of more than 10% in just a few days. In the first week, with the price of raw yellow phosphorus as low as 24000 yuan / ton, the cost support fell, the quotation enterprises gradually increased, and the market remained stable as a whole, but some enterprises reduced slightly. In the second week, the phosphoric acid market still operated slowly and steadily, followed the market and adjusted the price in a narrow range. In the third week, the raw materials tended to be stable, but there were bullish expectations. The phosphoric acid market waited carefully for the market to reflect, and there were few low prices. From the fourth week to the end of the month, the output of raw materials decreased, the supply of goods tightened, the price rose sharply to 28000 yuan / ton, and orders were received in limited quantities, the cost was under pressure, the commencement of phosphoric acid enterprises declined, the on-site supply tightened, and the market price rose rapidly. According to the monitoring of the business community, the quotation in Jiangsu is 7400-7500 yuan / ton, that in Hebei is 7800-8400 yuan / ton, that in Hubei is about 8000-8100 yuan / ton, that in Shandong is about 7500-7600 yuan / ton, that in Yunnan is about 7700 yuan / ton, and that in Sichuan is 7400-8500 yuan / ton. The price of phosphoric acid in various places has increased sharply.

Forecast and analysis of future trend of phosphate rock

At present, the overall supply of the mine continues to be tight. Individual Guizhou mining enterprises do not quote for the time being, only receive orders from old customers, and the upstream Yellow Phosphorus market also gives market support. Therefore, phosphorus ore analysts of business society believe that in the short term, China’s phosphorus ore market will focus on high-level consolidation and operation.

Acetone showed a trend of sharp rise first and then narrow correction in August, but it has been interested in the behavior owner all month. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the acetone market in East China offered 5150 yuan / ton on August 1 and 6200 yuan / ton on August 31, an overall increase of 20.39%.

Acetone rose sharply in August. On the one hand, the epidemic situation in Jiangsu worsened at the beginning of the month, and then the logistics and transportation were blocked. There was a low level of 35000 tons in Hong Kong. However, phenol ketone plants were concentrated in East China, and factories raised prices. Then the unexpected shutdown of plants in Taiwan accelerated the market rise. As can be seen from the figure below, the market rose sharply on the 11th. Acetone rose significantly in the middle and upper of August, However, after the sharp rise, the resistance in the downstream was obviously weakened, and the offer of the cargo holders decreased narrowly. However, Zhejiang Petrochemical planned to stop the unit in September to stimulate the narrow rebound of the market and gradually stabilized. Therefore, in August, the acetone market first rose sharply, and then fell into a range consolidation situation, which lasted until the end of the month. So far, acetone has been offered at 6150-6200 yuan / ton in East China, 6300 yuan / ton in Shandong and Yanshan, and 6600-6800 yuan / ton in South China.

In terms of units, the start-up of domestic phenol ketone units was 90% in August, and the phenol ketone units of Yangzhou Shiyou and Sinopec third well were put into load operation. However, Zhejiang Petrochemical Unit had a shutdown maintenance plan in September, and the overall start-up is expected to decline next month.

In terms of raw materials, Sinopec’s pure benzene decreased significantly during the month, with a decrease of 600 yuan / ton. There was little adjustment in acetone. Overall, the cost of acetone decreased and the profit value of phenol ketone unit increased.

In the downstream, the operating rates of isopropanol, MMA and MIBK are relatively stable, but the market offer is relatively strong, especially the rise of MIBK in August. At present, the on-site offer is up to 20000 yuan / ton, many factories suspend the offer, the market supply is in short supply, the on-site start-up has declined, and bisphenol A continues to rise. Up to now, the offer of bisphenol A is running at a high level of 28000-28200 yuan / ton.

From the perspective of the business community, the start-up of the unit will decline next month, the expected supply will decrease, the supply of goods in import contracts, especially in Taiwan, will also decrease, and it is unlikely that the port inventory will increase. On the demand side, the downstream products will continue to be high. Tianjin Zhongsha BPA unit is on trial, and the specific feeding time is uncertain. Lihuayi MMA unit is expected to be fed. On the whole, the downstream demand is good, The news boosted the market. The business news agency expects that the domestic acetone market will run at a high level in September, and it cannot be ruled out that it will continue to rise after adjustment.

According to the data of business agency, as of August 29, the average price of domestic fuel oil 180CST was 46250.00 yuan / ton (including tax), up 0.82% from 4587.50 yuan / ton on August 23.

On August 29, the fuel oil commodity index was 93.67, unchanged from yesterday, down 19.19% from the highest point of 115.91 in the cycle (October 17, 2018), and up 103.28% from the lowest point of 46.08 on August 15, 2016（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

The rise of domestic marine oil raw materials supports the cost of fuel oil 180CST. According to the business news agency, as of August 29, the self raised low sulfur quotation of 180 CST fuel oil in Zhoushan area was 4550 yuan / ton, and the self raised low sulfur quotation of 120 CST fuel oil was 4650 yuan / ton; The quotation of 180 CST self extracting low sulfur fuel oil in Shanghai is 4650 yuan / ton, and the quotation of 120 CST self extracting low sulfur fuel oil is 4750 yuan / ton.

International crude oil rose sharply, mainly due to the decline in U.S. crude oil and refined oil inventories last week, according to the American Petroleum Association (API). After superimposing the peak of China’s epidemic, demand continued to recover, boosting market confidence. In addition, the inventory data regularly released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday showed that crude oil inventories fell for the third consecutive week, driving oil prices to continue to rise.

Singapore’s fuel oil inventory decreased, which supported fuel oil prices. It is understood that the Singapore enterprise development authority (ESG): as of the week of August 25, Singapore’s fuel oil inventory decreased by 889000 barrels to a more than six-month low of 21.183 million barrels.

Future forecast: energy analysts of business society believe that the recent sharp rise in international crude oil has delayed the decline of ship fuel market. The ship fuel market continues the weak trend. After a slight rise in prices, it is basically stable. There are few transactions in the market as a whole, light market trading, wait-and-see in the downstream, and just demand is the main demand. It is expected that the fuel oil 180CST market will remain stable in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic glycine market operated smoothly this week, and the average price of industrial glycine was stable at 25000 yuan / ton without rise or fall.

2、 Analysis and review

According to the price chart of business society, the domestic glycine market has stabilized at a high level, and the price of industrial glycine is 25000 yuan / ton. It is understood that the shutdown state of Shandong Zhenxing glycine plant and the specific start-up time are to be determined. The downstream demand is mainly rigid demand, and the demand situation is acceptable. With the support of demand, the price of glycine is strong and the industry profit is considerable.

Demand: the price of glyphosate in the downstream is high, and the price of glyphosate technical drug remains at 51000-52000 yuan / ton. It is understood that the factory orders are scheduled to October, and the demand is strong. With the arrival of the peak demand season in the future, the price is expected to rise again.

3、 Future forecast

Glycine analysts of business society believe that the current glycine supply is sufficient, and the glycine price is strong under the support of demand. It is expected that the glycine market will continue to operate at a high level and maintain stability in the near future.

3、 Future forecast

Glycine analysts of business society believe that the current glycine supply is sufficient, and the glycine price is strong under the support of demand. It is expected that the glycine market will continue to operate at a high level and maintain stability in the near future.

The price of domestic ethyl acetate fell this week (August 16-20). This week continued the downward trend of the previous two weeks. Most domestic manufacturers reduced this week, stabilized slightly at the weekend, and most manufacturers stopped falling. According to the monitoring of business society, the price of ethyl acetate fell by 0.89% this week, and the current price is in the range of 8100-8400 yuan / ton.

First, from the perspective of the upstream acetic acid market, the price of acetic acid continued to fall in August, and the cost was bad for the downstream ethyl acetate Market. However, the price of acetic acid rebounded slightly this week. According to the monitoring of business society, acetic acid rose by 0.55% this week, but the downstream response is not timely. Ethyl acetate may recover due to the impact of cost promotion next week. The supply of acetic acid is mainly affected by the plant shutdown of manufacturers in Tianjin and the load reduction of large factories in Shandong. The tightening of supply stimulates the price rebound. However, at present, there is still insufficient buying interest in the downstream. The price changes in East China, South China and North China markets are generally small, and most of them are stable.

In addition, from the perspective of supply and demand of ethyl acetate, first of all, at the supply side, the supply of ethyl acetate is abundant, the enterprise plant operates normally and maintains a high operating rate. This week, the supply of goods in South China was sufficient, resulting in the loss of some export sales in East and North China. In addition, since August, due to regional transportation restrictions, the shipment speed of manufacturers has slowed down significantly, and large manufacturers have exchanged price for quantity. On the demand side, the market demand is relatively weak, the downstream procurement is relatively rational, there is generally no inventory in the off-season, and you can take it with you, but you just need to buy and continue to follow up, which is also an important reason for the price of ethyl acetate to stop falling and stabilize. Downstream continuous follow-up needs further observation.

In the future, ethyl acetate analysts of business society believe that with the end of the line, the domestic epidemic situation is slightly better than that in the previous period, and the transportation restrictions are gradually opened up, the demand will slowly stabilize, superimposed with the rebound in the price of acetic acid in the upstream, and ethyl acetate may recover in the near future. However, it is still affected by the off-season of the market, and the price of ethyl acetate may still stabilize, which is unlikely to rebound sharply.

According to the monitoring data of the business society, the bisphenol a market was stable in the early stage of this week, and the transaction was slightly lower. Since the auction of a petrochemical enterprise in East China reached a new high on Wednesday, the market pushed up again. Near the weekend, both phenol and acetone at the raw material end rose, which strongly supported bisphenol A and pushed up the industrial chain as a whole. Last Friday, bisphenol a market offered 27040 yuan / ton. So far, the average offer is 27600 yuan / ton. At present, the offer range in mainstream regions such as East China and North China is 27500-27800 yuan / ton. The holders have a strong attitude of price support.

In terms of factories, Lihua yiweiyuan and Nantong Xingchen started construction in 80%, and bisphenol A units such as Sinopec Mitsubishi and Changchun Chemical operated at full capacity. A petrochemical company in zhouzhonghua East auctioned, and the starting price rose from 26000 yuan / ton to 27150 yuan / ton in seven rounds of auctions. This auction result quickly promoted the negotiation between buyers and sellers in the market, increased the downstream replenishment sentiment, and the offer soared on Thursday, The reluctant selling mood of the goods holders is obvious.

From the raw material side, the focus of the phenol market this week is upward. So far, the offer in East China has pushed up to 9250 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring of business society, the average offer in the national phenol market this week has increased from 8900 yuan / ton to 9275 yuan / ton, an overall increase of 4.21%. As soon as the news of force majeure shutdown of Taiwan’s Xinchang plant came out this week, the mentality of phenol shippers was improved, the rising sentiment was rising, the participation of intermediate traders increased, the downstream followed up, the delivery and delivery volume increased significantly this week, and the rising cost of raw materials was strongly supported.

Phenol national market trend

On the other hand, the raw material acetone market has increased significantly and continued to rise in August. The market has soared again this week, and the overall upward trend is obvious. The mainstream negotiation range is 6300-6500 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring data of business society, the average offer of the national acetone market has increased from 5750 yuan / ton to 6625 yuan / ton, an increase of 15.2% a week. On the one hand, the port inventory continues to decline, Moreover, Taiwan’s Xinchang plant unexpectedly stopped on Tuesday, and it is expected that the supply will decline further in the future. Acetone is on the verge of fire, and the cargo holders rose sharply.

Acetone market trend in East China

The downstream liquid epoxy resin is affected by the upward trend of raw materials, and the new single negotiation continues to rise. The monitoring of business society shows that the overall upward trend of liquid epoxy resin Market in East China is 1000-1500 yuan / ton, the negotiation is 3400-34500 yuan / ton, and the negotiation of solid epoxy resin is 29300-29800 yuan / ton. This upward trend mainly comes from the cost support, and the offer of raw material bisphenol A is pushed up to 27500 yuan / ton, which is a strong support. It is expected that the epoxy resin market will run at a high level in the short term.

According to the business society, the upstream and downstream products rose collectively, and there were many unit maintenance at home and abroad from September to October. On the whole, the supply is still tight, but the cost pressure caused by the sharp rise of raw materials in the downstream still needs time to be digested. The business society expects the short-term bisphenol a market to be strong and put into operation.

On August 21, the hydrobenzene commodity index was 83.11, the same as yesterday, down 18.53% from the highest point of 102.01 in the cycle (2014-01-09), and up 177.13% from the lowest point of 29.99 on April 7, 2020（ Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2013 to now).

Price rise and fall of main domestic hydrogenated benzene market from August 13 to August 20 (unit: yuan / ton)

Region /, price on August 13, price on August 20, weekly rise and fall

East China, 7525., 7600., + 75

Shandong Province, 7375., 7425., + 50

This week (August 13 to August 20), the market price of hydrogenated benzene in Shandong Province was slightly corrected, at 7375 yuan / ton last weekend, 7425 yuan / ton this weekend, up 50 yuan / ton this week.

Summary of price adjustment of Sinopec pure benzene in 2021 (unit: yuan / ton)

On August 9, 2021, the listing price of Sinopec’s pure benzene was reduced by 150 yuan / ton. At present, it is 7550 yuan / ton, of which Qilu Petrochemical is 7500 yuan / ton. The price of Sinopec’s pure benzene was stable this week.

Start up of some domestic hydrobenzene units in August 2021

In August 2021, the start-up of hydrobenzene enterprises was acceptable, and the start-up in northern China was slightly lower. The start-up and shutdown cost of hydrogenated benzene enterprises is lower than that of pure benzene, and most manufacturers arrange production according to profit.

Commencement of main units downstream of benzene hydrogenation in August 2021

Recently, there have been a lot of maintenance of downstream units. Although some maintenance have been completed and production has begun, some have not been fully recovered. The downstream profitability has improved to a certain extent. On the whole, the demand for pure benzene and hydrogenated benzene is generally supported.

Pure benzene rebounded slightly after falling this week, but the trend of crude oil and downstream styrene was weak, the hydrobenzene market was under pressure, and the market price rose weakly this week. In terms of upstream crude benzene, the supply is tight recently. After the bidding price increase in Shandong this week, it will be implemented at 6320-6325 yuan / ton, an increase of 300 yuan / ton compared with last week. The cost pressure of hydrobenzene enterprises has further increased.

In the future, the business community believes that the downstream demand is gradually recovering, and the supply of pure benzene port has been delayed for a short time. On the whole, the supply and demand on the fundamentals is OK. It is expected that the future consolidation trend of hydrogenated benzene industry chain will be the main trend, with great upward pressure.

This week, the lead market (8.13-8.20) fluctuated downward. The average price of the domestic market was 15358.33 yuan / ton last weekend and 15175 yuan / ton this weekend, down 1.19% this week.

On August 22, the lead commodity index was 92.35, the same as yesterday, down 31.09% from the highest point of 134.01 in the cycle (November 29, 2016), and up 23.74% from the lowest point of 74.63 on March 19, 2015（ Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now).

This week, Lun lead fluctuated downward, with an overall fluctuation of US $2240-2340 / ton. This week, affected by the rebound of the US index, the metal market was under pressure, and the overall trend was weak. Lun lead fell, with insufficient upward momentum. LME inventory data is poor, the decline is slightly slow this week, and Lun lead is under pressure. The main 2109 contract of Shanghai lead follows the trend of Lun lead. It is dominated by weak shocks this week and is under overall pressure.

The spot market continued the downward trend of last week this week, and the overall inventory is still high, about 200000 tons, with obvious accumulation. The smelter is expected to reduce production. At present, it mainly maintains long-term single customers, and the inventory in the plant is relatively normal. Lead prices remain depressed and supply exceeds demand. The downstream mainly purchases on demand, and the downstream enters the peak season. However, it is expected that the peak season is not prosperous this year. During the week, there are some savings enterprises in the downstream bargain hunting to purchase in the market, but the overall gap is obvious compared with previous years.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 33rd week of 2021 (8.16-8.20), there are 5 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the non-ferrous sector, including 1 kind of commodity rising by more than 5%, accounting for 4.5% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were metallic silicon (7.58%), titanium concentrate (4.65%) and gold (0.71%). A total of 13 commodities fell month on month, and the top three products were copper (- 4.52%), nickel (- 4.09%) and dysprosium ferroalloy (- 2.45%). The average rise and fall this week was – 0.33%. Most nonferrous commodity prices fell this week.

At present, most downstream purchases are based on demand. Under the environment of no improvement in downstream consumption and high inventory, it is expected that the price of lead ingots will still fluctuate.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data list of business society, the average price of domestic hips on August 20 was 12200 yuan / ton, down 0.27% from the beginning of the week, 2.66% from the beginning of the month, and 3.17% month on month.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the raw material styrene suffered a weak shock and its support fell, but the market weakened, the support of the cost side was general, coupled with the general demand in the off-season, the cost and demand weakened, the hips market price fell, the benzene market price remained stable, and the PS market was weak. So far, the mainstream price of hips is mostly about 11900-14800 yuan / ton, and the price of benzene is mostly about 10500-10900 yuan / ton, with a slight decline in the market price.

In the international crude oil market, on August 19, the international oil price continued to fall. The settlement price of the main contract in the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market was US $63.50/barrel, down US $1.71 or 2.60%, and the settlement price of the main contract in Brent crude oil futures market was US $66.45/barrel, down US $1.78 or 2.59%. Oil prices fell for six consecutive trading days, hitting a low since May. On the one hand, the strength of the US dollar pulled down the oil price valuation, and more importantly, it was the negative impact of the expected cooling of demand, adding to the increase in oil production in oil producing countries and the end of the peak driving season in the United States, aggravating market concerns.

In terms of raw materials, the market price of styrene continued to decline this week. On August 16, East China styrene closed at 8800-8950 yuan / ton. On August 20, it was 8500-8650 yuan / ton, down by 300 yuan / ton. The above is the tank price in Zhangjiagang. On August 16, South China styrene closed at 8950-9000 yuan / ton. On August 20, it was 8600 yuan / ton, down 350 yuan / ton. The delivery price of the above factories. This week, the fundamentals of styrene market changed little, supply increased and demand rebounded, but the overall situation was still weak, and the price trend was guided by crude oil.

3、 Future forecast

The business agency believes that the current cost support force is declining, the demand in the off-season is limited, the enterprise shipment is under pressure, and the fundamentals are weak. It is expected that the hips market will fall steadily in the short term.