1、 Price data

According to the latest monitoring data of business agency, as of June 30, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was 8353.33 yuan / ton, down 0.42% from 8388.25 yuan / ton at the beginning of this month, and the overall price of ground refined hydrogenated naphtha fell.

According to the latest monitoring data of business agency, as of June 30, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined straight run naphtha was 8147.50 yuan / ton, down 1.72% from 8290.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of this month, and the price of ground refined straight run naphtha fell as a whole.

On June 30, the naphtha commodity index was 103.10, down 0.2 points from yesterday, down 15.24% from the highest point 121.64 in the cycle (2022-03-10), and up 144.08% from the lowest point 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the period refers to 2012-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: in June, the price of ground refined naphtha increased first and then decreased. At present, the mainstream price of ground refined hydrogenated naphtha is about 8200-8400 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of straight run naphtha is about 8100-8300 yuan / ton. In June, the international crude oil fell in shock, the naphtha market was in a strong wait-and-see mood, the demand for olefins and aromatics in the naphtha terminal was weak, the market transaction was general, and the refinery shipment was positive. As of the week of June 29, Singapore’s fuel oil storage fell by 580000 barrels to a two-week low of 20.768 million barrels; Light distillate oil inventory increased by 17000 barrels, reaching a two-week high of 15.229 million barrels; Intermediate distillate stocks fell by 680000 barrels to a three week low of 7.93 million barrels.

Upstream: the international crude oil price fluctuated in June. In early June, the oil ban imposed by the European Union on Russia was delayed, and the supply was tight, and the expectation remained unchanged. With the arrival of summer driving season in the United States, demand is expected to improve, supply and demand fundamentals are still good for oil prices, and crude oil prices rise. In late June, the international crude oil price fell, the market returned to fundamentals, and the crude oil supply price was tightly supported. However, affected by the expectation of interest rate hikes by many central banks across the country, the market was worried about the economic recession, and the oil price was still fluctuating in the range. At the end of June, crude oil futures closed up for three consecutive days, hitting a two-week high, as the market questioned the ability of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to increase production significantly, as well as the supply concerns caused by the turmoil in Ecuador and Libya.

Downstream: the price of toluene rose rapidly in the first ten days of June, hitting a new high in the year. It began to decline weakly in the middle of the year and rebounded slightly at the end of the month. The price of toluene was 8090 yuan / ton on June 1 and 8860 yuan / ton on June 28, up 9.52% from the beginning of the month. In the first ten days of June, mixed xylene soared, and the price quickly climbed to the highest level of the year. The trend began to turn around and fall in the middle of the month. On June 1, the price of mixed xylene was 8180 yuan / ton, and on June 28, the price was 8390 yuan / ton, up 2.57% from the beginning of the month. In June, the price trend of paraxylene rose first and then declined. By the end of the month, the domestic ex factory price of paraxylene was 10000 yuan / ton, down 1.96% from the price of 10200 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

According to the energy analysts of business agency, in June, the international crude oil price fluctuated downward, and the naphtha cost support was limited. At present, the terminal demand was not significantly positive, and the finished oil was weak downward. The naphtha market was in a strong wait-and-see mood, the market trading was cautious, and the refineries cut prices and shipped goods. It is expected that the naphtha refining in the near future may decline slightly.

In June, the domestic methanol market rose first and then fell, with shock consolidation. The fluctuation range at the beginning and end of the month was not large. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of domestic methanol production enterprises was 2617 yuan / ton at the beginning of June, and 2612 yuan / ton at the end of June. The price fell by 0.19% in the month, with the maximum amplitude of 3.78% and a year-on-year increase of 2.25%.

According to the price monitoring of the business club, in the first half of 2022 (1.1-6.30), 136 commodities rose month on month in the list of bulk commodity prices, mainly in the chemical sector (64 in total) and the agricultural and sideline sector (16 in total), and the commodities with an increase of more than 5% were mainly in the chemical sector; The top 3 commodities with growth rate were butadiene (152.15%), lithium hydroxide (118.46%) and sulfur (89.80%). A total of 95 commodities fell month on month, mainly in the chemical industry (43 in total) and steel (15 in total), and commodities with a decline of more than 5% were mainly in the chemical industry sector; The commodities with the top three declines were electrolytic manganese (-57.47%), magnesium (-46.60%) and glycine (-45.71%). In this half year, the average increase and decrease was 6.53%.

Summary of methanol market prices in various regions as of June 29:

Region, Price

Qinghai region, No quotation

Shanxi region, Mainstream: 2430-2450 yuan / ton

Liaoning region, 2680 yuan / ton to cash exchange

Fujian, Mainstream Negotiation: 2640-2700 yuan / ton

Two lakes region, Mainstream enterprises negotiate for reference about 2590-2650 yuan / ton

Anhui region, The mainstream negotiation is about 2620-2700 yuan / ton

Henan region, The shipment price of some enterprises is 2600 yuan / ton

At the beginning of the month, the domestic methanol market rose first and then stabilized, with narrow fluctuations. The continuous high price of raw coal has led to a good atmosphere in the whole industrial chain. At the same time, the high volatility of the crude oil market has also led to the rise of the chemical market on the macro level. However, after the lower receiving price rose slightly, the rising oil price led to a shortage of return transport capacity, and there is still room for freight to rise. The demand side performance was average, and the methanol spot turned to be stable and wait-and-see in the middle and late weeks of the week.

In the middle of May, the domestic methanol market fluctuated in a narrow range, and the price was relatively higher, rising first and then falling, mainly because the market demand improved and the receiving price rose. However, after the methanol futures fell in the middle of the week, the trading atmosphere became weaker, and the atmosphere of the domestic methanol spot market was light, and the price fell slightly.

In late June, the domestic methanol market fell in a narrow range. The raw coal market dragged down the atmosphere of methanol futures, and the spot market fell in a narrow range. On the supply side, the production enterprises in the main production areas have been overhauled, showing some positive results, but the market sentiment is poor. The pick-up volume of the social warehouse is still low, and the inventory continues to accumulate.

The price of products in the methanol industry chain is mixed, and the price of natural gas in the upstream product of methanol is stable; The price of Zhonghua East glacial acetic acid, a downstream product, fell the most; Among related products, the price of urea in Shandong fell the most.

In the external market, as of the closing on June 28, CFR Southeast Asia methanol market closed at USD 374.00-375.00/t. The closing price of US Gulf methanol market is 101.50-102.00 cents / gallon; The closing quotation of FOB Rotterdam methanol market was 370.00-370.50 euros / ton, down 2 euros / ton.

region ., country., Closing price, Up and down

Asia, CFR Southeast Asia, 374.00-375.00 USD / ton ., USD 0 / ton

Europe and America, US Gulf, 101.50-102.00 cents / gallon ., 0 cents / gallon

Europe, FOB Rotterdam, 370.00-370.50 euros / ton .,- 2 EUR / ton

The production cost of methanol has been loosened. Methanol analysts of the business club predict that the domestic methanol market may continue to decline in the short term.

Trend analysis

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the copper price fell sharply in June. At the beginning of the month, the copper price was 72236.67 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the copper price fell to 64211.67 yuan / ton, an overall decline of 11.11% and a year-on-year decrease of 5.98%.

According to the current chart of the business community, in June, the spot price of copper was mostly higher than the futures price, and the main contract was the expected price in two months. The main basis became larger, which was bad for buying hedging.

According to the LME inventory, the LME copper inventory in June was lower than that in May, at a relatively high level for 1-4 months, and there was a base at the end of the month.

Macro aspect: in June, the Federal Reserve of the United States (fed/ fed) took historic measures to combat inflation, raising interest rates by 75 basis points. The initial value of manufacturing PMI in Europe and the United States fell in June than expected, indicating that the demand for industrial products shrank significantly in June, intensifying the market’s concern about the economic downturn. The “copper oil ratio” has continued to decline and has fallen to a low in recent five years, indicating that the risk of economic recession has intensified. On the whole, under the conditions of tight liquidity and continuous fermentation of economic recession concerns, the nonferrous metals sector has fallen sharply and the copper price has also dropped sharply.

Supply: globally, the global refined copper output recovered rapidly after the outbreak. According to the data released by ICSG, in the first quarter of 2022, the global refined copper output increased by 2.7% year-on-year, reaching 6.286 million tons, a record. ICSG also predicted that the year-on-year growth rate of global refined copper production in 2022 and 2023 would reach 4.3% and 3.6% respectively. China has a large copper smelting capacity. It is estimated that the crude refining capacity will reach 9.7 million tons and the refining capacity will reach 14.55 million tons in 2022. In terms of refined copper output, from January to may 2022, due to refinery maintenance, cathode copper output was almost the same as that of the same period last year.

Demand: from the perspective of the pace of resumption of work and production, the downstream demand has not given better feedback. The downstream operation of some copper is still lower than that of the same period last year, indicating that the market confidence is still insufficient. In addition to the increase in copper consumption brought about by new energy vehicles and photovoltaic power generation, copper consumption in traditional power grids, home appliances such as air conditioners, traditional automobiles, construction (including real estate and infrastructure), light industry, electronic communications and other industries decreased.

Based on the above, in June, copper prices fell sharply under the conditions of loose copper supply and weak consumption. In the second half of the year, as the new overseas copper mines are put into operation or reach production capacity, the supply of copper mines will continue to rise in the second half of the year. In addition to the Fed’s interest rate hike, the eurozone, the UK and a number of emerging economies are raising interest rates, which means that global liquidity is shrinking, the economy is slowing down and copper consumption demand is weakening, which is a high probability event. It is expected that the copper price in the second half of the year will continue to fluctuate weakly.

According to the data of business agency, as of June 26, the average price of 180CST of domestic fuel oil was 6690.00 yuan / ton (including tax), down 0.15% from 6700.00 yuan / ton on June 20.

On June 26, the fuel oil commodity index was 135.49, unchanged from yesterday, down 0.15% from 135.70, the highest point in the cycle (June 21, 2022), and up 194.03% from 46.08, the lowest point on August 15, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

The international crude oil price fell, and the cost support of the ship fuel market was limited. According to the business news agency, as of June 26, the price of 180CST self raised low sulfur fuel oil and 120cst self raised low sulfur fuel oil in Zhoushan area of China National combustion Corporation were 6650 yuan / ton and 6750 yuan / ton respectively; The price of 180CST self extracting low sulfur fuel oil in Shanghai is 6700 yuan / ton, and the price of 120cst self extracting low sulfur fuel oil is 6800 yuan / ton.

The international crude oil price fell, the market returned to fundamentals, and the crude oil supply price was tightly supported. However, affected by the expectation of interest rate hikes by many central banks across the country, the market was worried about the economic recession, and the oil price was still fluctuating in the range. The US inflation in May exceeded expectations. The CPI soared to 8.6% year-on-year. The US Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike of 75 basis points also set a record. The fear of further increasing the risk of global economic recession, coupled with the uncertainty of the epidemic, has led to major changes in market expectations. The dollar rose again, risky assets were sold off again, and the stock market, bulk commodities and other fields fell on a large scale. Crude oil bears the brunt. It is already at a relatively high level in history. Under the condition that the tight supply situation has not changed, the panic has dealt a heavy blow to the oil price.

The increase in fuel oil inventories in Singapore has limited support for fuel oil prices. It is understood that Singapore enterprise development authority (ESG): as of the week of June 22, Singapore’s medium distillate oil inventory increased by 652000 barrels, reaching a nine week high of 8.61 million barrels; Singapore’s light distillate oil inventory fell by 600000 barrels to a two-week low of 15212000 barrels; Singapore’s fuel oil inventory increased by 1154000 barrels, a two-week high of 21348000 barrels.

Aftermarket forecast: international crude oil continued to fall, domestic ship fuel market costs fell, and suppliers’ shipments were blocked; The terminal demand of the market is general, the receiving of goods is limited, the overall transaction in the market is light, and the purchase is just needed. At present, the low sulfur market price of fuel oil 180CST is about 6700 yuan / ton, and the low sulfur market price of fuel oil 120cst is about 6800 yuan / ton. It is a single discussion. It is expected that the 180CST market of fuel oil will be mainly sorted out in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 was 6400 yuan / ton on June 20, and 6316 yuan / ton on June 24. The price of chlorinated paraffin 52 fell by 1.30% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The price of chlorinated paraffin 52 fell this week. The domestic epidemic has weakened, the operating rate of enterprises has increased, and the supply of chlorinated paraffin has increased. The price of raw materials fell this week, and the cost support was insufficient. Downstream demand was acceptable, bargain hunting and on-demand procurement, and trading and investment were improved. As of June 24, the ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Anhui was about 6300 yuan / ton, the ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northeast was about 6300 yuan / ton, and the ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Shandong was about 6150 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw liquid wax, the overall market of liquid wax decreased this week. Liquid wax follows the change of crude oil market, and the trend is mainly downward. This week, the price of liquid chlorine fell, the demand on the floor decreased, the transaction volume was low, and some liquid chlorine enterprises reduced their load.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

According to the chlorinated paraffin analyst of business agency, at present, the price of chlorinated paraffin raw materials has fallen and the cost support has weakened. The operating rate of chlorinated paraffin is increased, and the supply is increased. The downstream demand began to follow up, and the floor trading volume was acceptable. It is expected that in the short term, the low price of chlorinated paraffin will be mainly adjusted and operated.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average factory price of domestic ammonium sulfate was 1523 yuan / ton on June 13, and 1456 yuan / ton on June 17. The price of ammonium sulfate fell by 4.38% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The price of ammonium sulfate fell this week. At present, the floor trading is sluggish, the transaction is weak, and the market trend of ammonium sulfate is declining. The domestic and international market demand is weakened, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is reduced. Urea prices continued to fall this week, which was bad for ammonium sulfate Market. Enterprises cut down ammonium sulfate for shipment. Some caprolactam enterprises have been overhauled, and the supply of caprolactam grade ammonium sulfate has been reduced. As of June 17, the main factory price of coking ammonium sulfate in Shandong is about 1480 yuan, and that in Hebei is about 1420 yuan / ton. For domestic ammonium sulfate, the mainstream factory price in Shandong is about 1500 yuan / ton, and the mainstream factory price in Shanxi is about 1450 yuan / ton.

The downstream compound fertilizer market fluctuated in a narrow range this week. The price of urea, the raw material of compound fertilizer, dropped, and the pressure on the cost of compound fertilizer weakened. At present, the new orders of compound fertilizer are limited, and the demand is general. In the short term, the market of compound fertilizer will be adjusted slightly at a high level.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

The ammonium sulphate analyst of the business agency believes that the recent ammonium sulphate market continues to be depressed, and the industry is mainly on the sidelines. Urea prices fell, the demand side did not follow up, and there were many negative factors. It is expected that the price of ammonium sulfate will continue to decline in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of caustic soda was consolidated and operated. At the beginning of the week, the average market price in Shandong was about 1254 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, the average market price in Shandong was 1258 yuan / ton. The price rose slightly by 0.32%, and the price rose 140.77% compared with the same period last year. On June 19, the caustic soda commodity index was 181.01, unchanged from yesterday, down 31.82% from the highest point of 265.47 in the cycle (2021-10-27), and up 178.01% from the lowest point of 65.11 on October 9, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the survey data of the business agency, the domestic caustic soda price was consolidated this week. The price of caustic soda in Shandong is stable and dynamic. At present, the average market price in Shandong is about 1180-1280 yuan / ton. The mainstream factory price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Hebei is about 1250-1450 yuan / ton. As a whole, the supply of the enterprise was not started, the price of caustic soda was consolidated and operated, and the downstream enterprises mainly took a wait-and-see attitude. The enterprise delivers goods in general, has a heavy wait-and-see mood on the site, and has limited downstream receiving capacity.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the 24th week of 2022 (6.13-6.17), there were 2 kinds of commodities rising, 3 kinds of commodities falling, and 0 kind of commodities rising or falling to zero in the price list of chlor alkali industry. The main commodities rising are: light soda ash (0.34%), caustic soda (0.32%); The main commodities falling were hydrochloric acid (-4.35%), calcium carbide (-2.12%) and PVC (-2.00%). The average rise and fall this week was -1.56%.

Analysts from the business community believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda has been consolidated and the wait-and-see attitude of downstream alumina is obvious. Most of the alumina is purchased on demand. The overall demand is limited, and there is a possibility of price reduction. It is comprehensively estimated that the subsequent consolidation of caustic soda will be dominated, depending on the downstream market demand.

The domestic aggregate MDI market continued to rise. Most of the major manufacturers supported their prices, and traders followed suit. The overall market atmosphere was strong. On the other hand, the overall performance of downstream demand is slightly modest, with small order replenishment as the main.

According to the sample data monitored by the business club, from June 10 to 17, the domestic aggregate MDI market price rose from 18020 yuan / ton to 18180 yuan / ton, with a weekly price increase of 0.89%, a month on month price increase of 1.79%, and a year-on-year increase of 6.94%.

Summary of domestic aggregate MDI market as of June 20:

Region, Wanhua goods, Shanghai goods

North China and Shandong, 18500-18800 yuan / ton, 18200-18300 yuan / ton

East China, 18700-18800 yuan / ton, 18200-18300 yuan / ton

South China, 18500-18600 yuan / ton, 18000 yuan / ton

Raw material pure benzene: the price of pure benzene fell. The main factors were the decline of crude oil, the weakness of the external market, and the superposition of the port inventory to stop the decline, resulting in a change in profit mentality and an increase in market shipments.

Comparison chart of pure benzene (upstream raw material) – polymerized MDI price trend of Business Club:

Aniline: at present, the domestic aniline high price is still supported by the raw material pure benzene, the downstream just needs to follow up, and the profit transmission of the industrial chain is OK.

In terms of enterprises, Yantai Wanhua’s 1.1 million T / a unit operates normally; Ningbo Wanhua 1.2 million T / a unit operates normally; The 600000 T / a unit of Shanghai kesichuang operates normally; Shanghai Huntsman 380000 T / a unit operates normally; Or postpone the maintenance to June to July; Shanghai BASF 220000 T / a unit operates normally; Or postpone the maintenance to June to July; Chongqing BASF 400000 T / a unit operates normally; The 80000t / a Dongcao Ruian plant operates normally.

Crude oil and external market still form high support for domestic prices, and downstream demand is expected to be further opened. In the future, the analysts of business club aggregate MDI expect that the domestic aggregate MDI market is mainly high and volatile.

DOTP prices fell this week

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the DOTP price fell sharply this week, and the overall DOTP market fell. As of June 20, the price of DOTP was 11487.50 yuan / ton, down 5.26% from 12125 yuan / ton on June 1 at the beginning of the month; Compared with 12200 yuan / ton on June 12 last weekend, it fell by 5.84%. This week, the decline of raw material prices accumulated the off-season demand, the decline of DOTP cost and insufficient demand, and the DOTP market fell violently.

The price of isooctanol fell sharply this week

According to the price monitoring of the trading agency, the domestic isooctanol price fell violently this week, and the overall isooctanol market fell. As of June 20, the isooctanol price was 10733.33 yuan / ton, down 12.74% from the isooctanol price of 12300.00 yuan / ton on June 12 at the beginning of the week. This week, the price of isooctanol fell sharply, the cost of DOTP raw materials fell sharply, and the downward pressure on DOTP increased.

PTA prices fell back from high level this week

According to the price monitoring of the business club, the high PTA price fell this week, and the overall PTA market fell. As of June 20, the PTA price was 7200.00 yuan / ton, down 6.75% from 7720.73 yuan / ton on June 12 last week. The high crude oil price fell back, PTA price fell in shock this week, DOTP cost support weakened, DOTP positive momentum weakened, and downward pressure increased.

Aftermarket expectation

According to DOTP data analysts of business agency, the high crude oil price fell this week, PTA price fell in shock, the demand in the off-season was insufficient, the price of isooctanol fell sharply, the cost of DOTP fell, the upward momentum of DOTP weakened, and the downward pressure increased. In the future, the cost of DOTP raw materials fell and the demand was insufficient. The downward pressure on DOTP increased. It is expected that the price of DOTP will fluctuate and fall in the future.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of June 17, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in the mainstream areas in China was around 1043 yuan / ton. Compared with June 12 (the reference price of phosphorus ore was 976 yuan / ton), the price increased by 67 yuan / ton, or 6.83%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that this week, the domestic phosphorus ore market continued to hit a high level, the on-site phosphorus ore supply continued to be tight, and the market focus continued to rise. Some mining enterprises in Guizhou resumed mining, and only a small amount of inventory was shipped out. The tight situation of spot circulation of high-end phosphorus ore in the market has not improved much. As of June 17 this weekend, In Guizhou, the market price of 30% grade phosphate ore is around 1030-1100 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 50-70 yuan / ton, and the market price of 28% grade phosphate ore is around 920-950 yuan / ton. At present, the phosphate ore of Guizhou and Hubei large mining enterprises is mainly for their own use after production, and there is no external sales source. Most of the enterprises that can supply phosphate ore also have a strong reluctance to sell, and pre orders are mainly discussed.

In terms of downstream yellow phosphorus, the domestic yellow phosphorus market first fell and then rose this week. At the beginning of the week, the market price mainly operated downward, and at the end of the week, the market faced a slight rebound. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, on June 17, the reference price of yellow phosphorus was 38166.67 yuan / ton. Compared with June 12 (38666.67 yuan / ton), the price was reduced by 500 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.28%.

Forecast and analysis of future trend of phosphate rock

At present, with years of mining, China’s phosphate rock resources have been continuously reduced. With good downstream demand, the tight market supply situation is difficult to be greatly alleviated in the short term. The phosphate rock datagrapher of business society believes that in the short term, the domestic phosphate rock market will continue to be strong, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the specific changes in supply and demand.