1、 Price trend
According to the data monitored by the business agency (the average ex factory price of carbide SG5), the average price of domestic PVC mainstream was 14325 yuan / ton on October 11, an increase of 1287.5 yuan compared with the previous day (8th), a daily increase of 9.88%, an increase of 13.8% compared with the beginning of the month and 112.46% compared with the same period last year.
2、 Market analysis
On October 11, the PVC market rose strongly, and the futures opened up by the limit. The highest price of the main contract 2201 was 13075, with a daily increase of 7%, and continued to rise to a new height. The spot market also followed up more actively, with a daily increase of 9.88%, exceeding 112% year-on-year. The increase range of enterprises was huge, about 800-1200 yuan / ton, and the current price was more than 14000, such as Yibin Tianyuan The ex factory price of Shandong Xinfa and other enterprises has risen to about 15000, even higher. Some enterprises have closed their plates and stopped reporting, and the market has a strong bullish atmosphere. After the National Day holiday, the price of raw calcium carbide continued to rise to 7800 yuan / ton, and the cost support continued to strengthen. Moreover, the downstream product industry started one after another, and there was a certain demand for replenishment. At the same time, enterprises such as Junzheng in Inner Mongolia and Tianye in Xinjiang planned maintenance, most PVC devices were not full and operated, and the supply side was still tight, which jointly supported the sharp rise of PVC prices.
In terms of spot goods, at present, the quotation range of domestic pvc5 electric stone enterprises is mostly around 14300-15000 yuan / ton. The interval of pvc5 electric stone in Hangzhou is 14280-14400 yuan / ton; The mainstream of pvc5 electric stone in Changzhou is 14100-14500 yuan / ton; The mainstream price of PVC ordinary electric stone in Guangzhou is 14300-16500 yuan / ton, and the market price in various parts of China continues to rise.
region workmanship 10 / 11 (yuan / ton) 10 / 8 (yuan / ton) Rise and fall remarks
East China Calcium carbide method 14150-14370 12750-13100 + 1400/+1270 Ex warehouse
south China Calcium carbide method 14200-14550 13000-13350 + 1200/+1200 Ex warehouse
North China Calcium carbide method 14230-14740 13130-13210 + 1100/+1530 Delivered
southwest Calcium carbide method 14520-15000 13220-13500 + 1300/+1500 Delivered
International crude oil, on October 11, the international oil price rose. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $80.52/barrel, up US $1.17 or 1.47%, and the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures was US $83.65/barrel, up US $1.26 or 1.53%. Oil prices continued to rebound, mainly affected by the recovery of global demand, superimposed on the shortage of power and natural gas in major economies, driving oil prices upward.
Ethylene, according to the monitoring data of the business agency, the external price of ethylene fluctuated and rose last week. The average price of ethylene at the beginning of the week was US $1125.25/t, and the average price of ethylene at the weekend was US $1138.00/t, up 1.13%. The current price fell 2.09% month on month, and the current price rose 46.89% year-on-year. At present, in terms of crude oil: the market is optimistic about the demand for crude oil in winter, with tight supply and strong cost support, so the data analysts of business society expect the external price of ethylene to rise next.
For calcium carbide, the factory quotation of calcium carbide in Northwest China increased slightly on October 11, up 200 yuan / ton, or 2.63%, and 186.76% year-on-year over the same period last year. The price of raw material orchid charcoal continues to rise sharply. At present, shenmulan charcoal is about 3300-3500 yuan / ton, and the cost of calcium carbide is well supported. The downstream PVC market has risen sharply recently, and the downstream customers’ enthusiasm for calcium carbide procurement has increased. At present, the power restriction is relaxed and the output of calcium carbide is increased. In the future, it is expected that the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may fluctuate slightly: the average price quoted by manufacturers is about 7500 yuan / ton.
3、 Future forecast
PVC analysts of business society believe that at present, the raw material price is high, and it is not easy to fall quickly in the short term, and the cost support is strong. At the same time, PVC enterprises are still in the maintenance season, the devices are running in multi unsaturated mode, and the market supply is still tight. In addition, the strong disk surface supports the rise of PVC price. It is expected that the PVC price will continue to rise in the short term, and we need to pay attention to the trend of raw material price and the information guidance of macro policies.