Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, the domestic methanol market continued to rise this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of methanol in domestic market was 2076 yuan/ton, which was 2136 yuan/ton at the weekend. It rose by 2.89% in the week. The price of methanol fell by 0.84% annually and 29.94% year-on-year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Domestic methanol market continued to rise this week, with local markets in northwest, Shandong and North China rising by more than 100 yuan/ton, while ports showed a slightly weaker trend, with the weekly increase limited to 50 yuan/ton. As of Wednesday, the total inventory of ports in eastern and southern China was 11599,000 tons, which maintained an increasing trend. Note: Sample inventory data in Nanjing were increased this week. The Zhongan Unit with an annual output of 700,000 tons of methanol to olefins was successfully released at 9:58 a.m. on August 8.

Industry Chain: Formaldehyde: This week, the formaldehyde market went up narrowly. Due to the increase of methanol market, production cost and some enterprises’offer, while the downstream market is still in low demand, formaldehyde enterprises are facing difficulties in shipment, increasing inventory pressure, and the actual unit transaction price is still at a low level.

Acetic acid: This week, the domestic acetic acid market is rising significantly. After a downward trend in the early stage, traders actively sell their stocks at a profit margin, pushing down the acetic acid market. During the weekend, there were parking rumors of mainstream enterprises in East China, and 800,000 tons of acetic acid plant in Soap, Jiangsu Province was stopped unexpectedly. The spot supply of acetic acid in the market was reduced, and the domestic acetic acid social inventory was low after the previous continuous rise in the market. The favorable factors overlapped. All parties in the market looked hollow and the traders and downstream gradually stocked up. Acquisition and purchase, acetic acid market price tightening, to promote market transactions continue to rise. On Wednesday evening, Shaanxi extended acetic acid plant temporarily stopped due to air separation, and supply in Northwest China plummeted, exacerbating the overall bullish mood in China.

Dimethyl ether: This week, the domestic dimethyl ether market prices rose embarrassingly and the overall trading situation was weak. Due to the poor delivery last week, prices have been falling continuously, and are expected to fall below 2,900 yuan/ton. Henan’s leading enterprises have implemented a bottom-keeping policy from 4 to 6 to protect market prices from the side. The settlement price was announced in the afternoon of June 6 at 2,950 yuan/ton. Since the price was low, Xinlian has raised the price by 20 yuan/ton since July 7 to guide the market price from the news and avoid further decline. After that, the peripheral enterprises rose appropriately and the downward trend of prices was postponed. From the transaction point of view, just in need of support is limited, domestic enterprises are not performing well, some enterprises continue to increase sales pressure, and the price of raw material methanol continues to rise slightly in the near future, resulting in increased production costs of raw material enterprises.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business Cooperative Perspective: On the positive side, due to the continued decline in methanol prices, most of them fell to the cost line, and trade and terminal hoarding were positive. New methanol-to-olefin units have been put into operation one after another, and the MTO load of Phase II of Chengzhi in Nanjing is not high; MTO in Shandong Luxi is expected to be commissioned in mid-August; Baofeng in Ningxia is scheduled to start production in September; methanol from Zhongan joint raw material needs to be purchased. Due to the impact of environmental protection and production reduction, the main production enterprises in Datong, Shanxi, will stop, or in the latter part will have an impact on other coal-based methanol enterprises. On the negative side, the domestic methanol industry started to maintain a high level as a whole. In August, the estimated import volume was over 900,000 tons, and the market supply was abundant. New domestic methanol plants are under construction in an orderly manner, of which 700,000 tons are planned to be put into operation in Yankuang Yulin in October; Rongxin, Inner Mongolia, is expected to be put into operation in September; Yingde, Jingmen, can produce products in mid-August. Influenced by environmental protection supervision, formaldehyde and sheet metal parking in Linyi, Shandong Province almost all, recovery time is uncertain. Pre-sale in the early period of Northwest China is good, methanol still has the driving force to push up. It is expected that the price of the main production area will still rise by 50-100 yuan/ton next week. The increase of ex-factory price and freight will be transferred to the downstream consumer market. Local terminals are conflicting with the rising raw material prices, and purchasing may be reduced next week. At present, port arrivals are concentrated, cargo is abundant, and the US dollar hangs in line. The power of methanol to soar is limited. Methanol analysts from S Business Association predict that the domestic methanol market will be more volatile next week.