On Jan. 10, 2018, when the media turned around, Thai Agriculture Minister grisada boonrach said that Thailand had reduced rubber production by 4.5 million tons to 3 million tons and planted area by 4.2 million hectares to 2.4 million hectares. It is planned to be implemented in the next five years. The news has not been reproduced by many media, and can not identify the credibility.
If production is cut by 300,000 tons in 2019, rubber will rebound substantially, expected to be around 20%.
But some of Thailand’s rubber policies are limited to discussions or claims, and many undecided and unrealized situations have occurred. So for the time being, the market has not risen sharply.
Rubber rebounds back to the shock zone.
The glue price responds to the fact that the spot determined by China’s high inventory is difficult to rise. Demand is stable and slightly pessimistic, supply is not significantly reduced short-term expectations, superimposed rubber prices are expected to rise at a lower position in 10 years, in a weak equilibrium state.
Thai research information feedback reduces production. The Thai government may introduce the Lido rubber measures.
Rubber prices fell to the lowest level in 2018. Pressure in rubber-producing countries has increased and supply-side actions have taken place in various countries. There was no clear plan of action at the Rubber Tripartite Meeting.
Thai spot prices rebounded at the bottom, ahead of Chinese spot prices.
The price industry of 11,000 is not enthusiastic enough to further reduce production or occur. Considering that both industry information and ANRPC report point to the direction of production reduction. Receiving pressure disappeared. It’s better to stop cutting at home and start a high rate of production and export. It can support rubber rebound. But the rubber rebound was weak, and a favorable short price returned to the starting point.
How about the industry?
As of January 4, 2019, natural rubber stocks in the previous period were 432305 (4634) tons and 385660 (6840) tons.
As of January 4, 2019, the start-up rate of all-steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong Province was 69.91%, down 1.76 percentage points annually, up 8.66 percentage points year on year. Semi-steel tire start-up rate of domestic tire enterprises is 66.19%, which is 0.2 percentage points lower than that of the previous year and 0.21 percentage points higher than that of the previous year. January is in the slack season of domestic demand, and production is expected to be ready for the Spring Festival.
On December 1, Fang Xinghai said that it would actively promote the listing of rubber futures No. 20.
We estimate that the price of glue may fall between 300 and 1000 yuan due to the announcement of No. 20 glue on the market. Uncertainty is high. Attention should be paid to this risk.
Goods in stock
Last trading day, from 16:00 p.m. to 18:00 p.m. in spot market, compound glue quoted 10600 yuan (-50). RU1901 is a little high.
After the rebound, the spot price of futures has risen from 1200 to 1400 yuan, which has attracted the attention of arbitrage selling.
Suggestions on the operation of natural rubber mesh:
Operational point of view, wait-and-see or intra-day short-term trading.
Rubber may rebound in the next month, but the shortfall of No. 20 rubber is difficult to avoid. The risk of a sharp drop in the announcement of a listing is relatively high. If this risk occurs, the conservative investor will stop earnings in advance. Active investors can set up mobile stops beforehand.