In August, the price center of 98% concentrated sulfuric acid in China showed a significant decline, with an average monthly price of 1943.39 yuan/ton, a month on month decrease of 6.18%; At the end of the month, the average domestic transaction price fell to around 1900 yuan/ton, and the decline accelerated in the middle and late stages, with transaction prices in many places continuing to loosen. Regional differentiation is evident: the supply of smelting acid is impacting the sulfur sulfonic acid market, and low-priced smelting acid from Shandong is flowing out across regions, driving high priced supply from central and southwestern China to make up for the decline; The decline in some areas of Shandong has narrowed in the later stage and there are signs of slight stabilization, while the low-end supply in Southwest China continues to decline.

one ️⃣ Supply side: Maintenance completed, supply increased, inventory accumulated
The early maintenance equipment will resume production in August, and the overall start-up will be lifted; The continuous release of by-product acid from non-ferrous smelting and the large-scale circulation of low-priced smelting acid have had a substitution impact on high priced sulfuric acid. Against the backdrop of poor shipments, the inventory of acid plants across the country is gradually accumulating, and companies are actively reducing prices to reduce inventory and make discounts on shipments a common practice.
two ️⃣ Demand side: Autumn fertilizer launch falls short of expectations, downstream demand is weak
Phosphate fertilizer (maximum downstream): The slow start of autumn fertilizer stocking in August has put pressure on ammonium phosphate enterprises to incur losses, and the increase in production is limited. Procurement only maintains on-demand delivery without large-scale replenishment;
Titanium dioxide, chemical industry, metallurgy: The industry has a flat start, and end-users are resistant to high prices, buying up instead of buying down, with a strong wait-and-see attitude;
New energy wet metallurgy and lithium iron phosphate only provide partial support and are not enough to reverse the overall weakness.
three ️⃣ Cost and transmission tearing: high sulfur level, but price transmission failure
The raw material sulfur continues to operate at a high level, theoretically providing cost support for the formation of sulfuric acid; But downstream losses are severe, high priced sulfuric acid cannot be transmitted downwards, cost support is ineffective, market logic has switched from “cost pricing” to supply and demand pricing, and factories are forced to give up profits and sell goods.
four ️⃣ Circulation level: regional arbitrage, price difference smoothing
Shandong’s low-priced goods flow to high priced regions such as Henan, Hubei, and Southwest China, and cross regional freight flows impact local high priced enterprises, driving the overall downward shift of the national price center and rapidly compressing regional price differences.
Market forecast:
The short-term loose supply and demand pattern is difficult to quickly reverse:
If the autumn phosphorus fertilizer orders continue to be released and downstream centralized replenishment occurs, there is a temporary opportunity for the market to stop falling and recover;
If there is no significant increase in demand, high inventory pressure still exists in acid plants, and prices are prone to decline but difficult to rise;
The fluctuation of sulfur prices remains a bottom line variable for sulfuric acid costs, and the amount of smelting acid used determines the bottom range of the market.