1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, the market price of Yungui yellow phosphorus rose slightly this week. The average price of yellow phosphorus at the beginning of the week was 33125 yuan/ton, the average price at the weekend was 33250 yuan/ton, and the price increased by 0.38% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of Yunnan-Guizhou yellow phosphorus rose slightly this week. At present, the start of yellow phosphorus enterprises in Yunnan has declined and the market supply has decreased. The yellow phosphorus market is relatively stagnant. After the price rebounded slightly, the downstream market is not enthusiastic about purchasing goods and is cautious about taking goods. Yellow phosphorus enterprises now mainly issue preliminary orders. Up to now, the price of yellow phosphorus is about 32500-33500 yuan/ton.

As for phosphate rock, as of January 4, 2023, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate rock in China is around 1056 yuan/ton. The domestic market price of 30% grade phosphate ore is around 1030-1080 yuan/ton, and the price of 28% grade phosphate ore is around 950-980 yuan/ton. The reference price of 32% grade phosphate ore is around 1150-1250 yuan/ton. In 2023, the domestic phosphorus ore market will not change much, and the overall trend of the market will continue to be stable at the end of 2022. The supply and demand in the market will be calm. The phosphorus ore statistician of the business agency believes that in the short term, the domestic phosphorus ore market will mostly continue to be stable, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the change of information on the supply and demand side.

In terms of coke, from December 30 to January 6, 2022, the first round of the coke market was raised and dropped. As of January 6, the price of quasi-first grade metallurgical coke in Shanxi was 2582 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton, down 3.73%. This week, the price of coke at ports in Shandong Province was slightly reduced. As of the 6th, the quasi-class ex-warehouse price at ports was around 2680-2720 yuan/ton. The port market was weak, the market inquiry atmosphere was cold, the intention to collect ports was low, and the actual transaction was small. This week, the overall decline of the port freight, the overall change of the port inventory, and the weak enthusiasm of traders to gather at the port led to the overall decline of the freight price. Affected by the first round of lifting and landing, the current port mentality has weakened.

In terms of phosphoric acid, the market price of phosphoric acid increased slightly this week. The average price of phosphoric acid was 9025 yuan/ton on January 2 and 9050 yuan/ton on January 6, with a slight increase of 0.28% during the week. At present, the phosphoric acid market closely follows the yellow phosphorus market. It is expected that in the short term, the phosphoric acid market will be more wait-and-see and temporarily stable.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

The yellow phosphorus analyst of the Chemical Branch of the Business Society believes that the current yellow phosphorus market is relatively stagnant, the upstream phosphate rock price is temporarily stable, the coke market price is falling, and the cost support is general. The market price of downstream phosphoric acid was slightly increased. The yellow phosphorus market is light, and the downstream is more wait-and-see. It is expected that the yellow phosphorus market will operate stably in the short term.