According to the monitoring data of the business community, the polyacrylamide commodity index on September 9 was 94.97, unchanged from yesterday, 14.83% lower than the highest point of the cycle, 111.51 (2021-11-03), and 14.57% higher than the lowest point, 82.89, on August 2, 2020. (Note: Period refers to April 1, 2019 to now)

Commodity market: According to the data monitoring of the business community, the mainstream quotation of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China’s domestic market in the first ten days of September was stable, with a small increase. Among them, the market mainstream quotation on the first day was about 15471.43 yuan/ton, and the main quotation on the ninth day was 15542.86 yuan/ton, with a ten day increase of only 0.46%. Since September, the coal price has risen and the energy cost has increased. However, due to the normal production and sufficient inventory of the water treatment plants in the main production area, the downstream demand is stable, the overall quotation has not changed much and the transaction is stable.

Industrial chain: upstream raw material acrylonitrile: according to the data of the business community, the market price of acrylonitrile continued to rise in the first ten days of September. On the first day, the spot market price of domestic acrylonitrile was 8900 yuan/ton, and on the ninth day, it was 9550 yuan/ton, up 7.30% in the first ten days. The price of raw propylene rose, the downstream construction was basically stable, the market transaction was dominated by small orders, the petrochemical cost remained high, and the acrylonitrile manufacturers had a strong willingness to support the price. Since September, the spot price and listing price of acrylonitrile manufacturers have risen slightly, and the business offer has risen with each passing day. Although the acrylonitrile market is on a good rise at present, the sharp decline of international crude oil prices has brought pressure on the domestic petrochemical industry, which needs more attention in the future.

Raw acrylic acid: according to the data of the business society, as of September 9, the average price of acrylic acid in East China was 7833.33 yuan/ton, 3.52% higher than the price of 7566.67 yuan/ton on September 1, 46.35% lower in a three-month cycle, and 46.35% lower than the same period last year. Recently, the market price of raw propylene has risen, the cost support has improved, some enterprises in the supply side have overhauled their devices, the market operation rate has declined, the supply has decreased, the downstream stock is in order before the festival on the demand side, and the focus of acrylic acid market negotiation is moderate and upward. According to the analysis, short-term supply support still exists, and with the expectation that the downstream operating rate of “Jinjiu” will increase, it is expected that the acrylic market will run stronger in the short term, so more attention should be paid to the supply side information guidance.

LNG is used in the production process. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the price of domestic LNG market in the first ten days of September rose first, then fell, and then rebounded slightly: the domestic price was about 5892 yuan/ton on the first day, and the market price was 5930 yuan/ton on the ninth day, with a slight increase of 0.64% in the first ten days, and the center of gravity moved downward; Among them, the highest price in this ten day period is 6022 yuan/ton on the fifth day, and the lowest price is 5892 yuan/ton on the first day. The maximum amplitude of the market in this ten day period is 2.21%. Internationally, the “energy crisis” in Europe is getting worse and worse, and gas prices and electricity prices are soaring; At home, the market demand is poor. Under the influence of public health events, the market is strict in prevention and control, transportation is partially blocked, liquid prices are limited, and the downstream mentality of buying up rather than buying down is strengthened. As for the future market, it is expected that the domestic LNG price trend will fluctuate in the short term.

Future forecast: Since September, the cost of some raw materials for water treatment products has risen. In addition to the rising cost of coal and other energy, the market of some water treatment products has risen. The spot inventory of polyacrylamide market is sufficient, the manufacturer continues to operate normally, and the downstream demand has not increased significantly. It is expected that the polyacrylamide market in the future will continue to adjust in a stable, medium and small way. Attention should be paid to the impact of the recent sharp drop in crude oil, high coal prices and the “Jin Jiu” consumption season on the subsequent market of polyacrylamide.