Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic PA66 market fell in July, and the spot prices of various brands fell. As of July 28, the ex factory price of PA66 adhesive injection molding sample enterprises of business club was about 21000 yuan / ton on average, with an increase or decrease of -21.50% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: upstream, the domestic adipic acid price continued to decline in July. Upstream pure benzene fluctuated and fell due to the impact of intensified international crude oil fluctuations, and the decline of cyclohexanone, cyclohexane and other products deepened, and the negative cost side intensified. In addition, the high inventory pressure in the early stage, the price reduction of the manufacturer’s inventory, the pressure on the market mentality, and the light market demand and other reasons. In the later stage, the business community believes that under the background of inflation, the global central bank’s interest rate hike will bring down demand expectations, and the short-term oil price will still be suppressed. Therefore, pure benzene may still be difficult to make much progress. The pressure on the manufacturer’s inventory is still prominent. Except Zhonghao, the device gradually resumes operation, Xinjiang Tianli reduces the load by 50%, and other devices operate normally. The pressure on the supply side still suppresses the price of adipic acid. Adipic acid market is expected to remain weak.

Adipic acid, the upstream raw material, fell sharply, and adiponitrile was in abundant supply in the market. The sharp fluctuations of international crude oil are bad for the petrochemical industry chain, and the cost side support of PA66 is weak. In terms of industry operating rate, due to the continuous pressure on the profits of PA66 enterprises, the domestic PA66 industry load level continued to fall in July, but the spot supply in the market is still abundant, and the supply pressure is difficult to solve. The inventory position of the port is acceptable, and the arrival volume of overseas goods is general. In terms of demand, at present, terminal enterprises take goods and follow up, preferring just to maintain production, and have strong resistance to high price supply. In the traditional off-season, the demand of downstream factories shrinks, the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent, and merchants have great resistance to shipping. The transaction on the floor fell, and the seller’s mentality was not good, so he gradually tried to reduce the yield order.

Aftermarket forecast

Business analysts believe that the spot price of PA66 fell at a low level in July. The adiponitrile market at the raw material end is weak, and the cost side support of PA66 is weakened. The load of PA66 enterprises has been reduced by a narrow margin, but there is a deep contradiction between supply and demand in the market. The demand side is not enough to take goods, and the market trading has continued to be sluggish. It is expected that PA66 will continue to be affected by the contradiction between supply and demand in the short term and continue its weak market.