1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency (the average ex factory price of carbide SG5), the average price of domestic PVC mainstream was 8446.25 yuan / ton on May 31, down 2.63% from 8700 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 7.42% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

In May, the PVC market fluctuated weakly, the downstream demand was less than expected, the real estate demand was not released enough, and the public health events in various parts of the country were still severe. The downstream product industry was limited to start-up, and the purchase of gas was insufficient. The PVC price weakened, falling by 2.63% in the month. With the return of the May Day holiday, the disk is running stronger. In addition, the price of raw calcium carbide has increased, and the cost support has increased. PVC futures and spot prices have risen hand in hand. From the middle of the year, the price of raw calcium carbide has decreased, and the cost support has decreased. In addition, exports have weakened, and the demand side has continued to weaken, further aggravating the downward trend of PVC. Towards the end of the month, PVC maintenance enterprises are concentrated, and the operating rate has declined, PVC prices rebounded slightly, but it is difficult to see a big rise. By the end of the month, the price of raw calcium carbide was around 4400 yuan / ton, and the quotation range of domestic pvc5 calcium carbide enterprises was mostly around 8250-8550 yuan / ton. At present, CFR China is down 10 to US $1190 / ton, CFR Southeast Asia is down 10 to US $1285 / ton, and CFR India is down 30 to US $1370 / ton.

It can be seen from the weekly increase and decrease from March 7, 2022 to May 29, 2022 that domestic PVC rose and fell in the cycle. The maximum increase was in the week of March 7 and the maximum decrease was in the week of May 23. The overall fluctuation in the near future is small.

As for international crude oil, the price of crude oil fluctuated and rose in May, the EU oil ban on sanctions against Russia was delayed, and the expectation of tight supply remained unchanged. With the arrival of summer driving season in the United States, demand is expected to improve, and supply and demand fundamentals are still good for oil prices. OPEC will adhere to the oil production agreement reached last year at the meeting on June 2, increasing the daily output by 432000 barrels in July, rejecting Western calls for faster production increase to reduce soaring oil prices. As the epidemic situation in Asia gradually eases, demand expectations tend to improve.

Ethylene, the external market of ethylene fell in May. The ethylene market price in Asia fell. As of the 27th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at US $1046-1056 / ton, and CFR Southeast Asia closed at US $1146-1156 / ton. The market price of ethylene in Europe fell sharply. As of the 27th, FD northwest Europe closed at US $1635-1647 / ton and CIF northwest Europe closed at US $1394-1403 / ton. The price of ethylene in the United States rose violently. As of the 27th, the price was 647-664 yuan / ton. In May, except for the slight rise in the United States, the price of ethylene in the outer market basically fell. The market transaction was poor and the price continued to fall..

Calcium carbide, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China rose slightly this month. This month, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China rose from 3983.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 4366.67 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 9.62%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.13% compared with the same period last year. In the aftermarket, it is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may fluctuate slightly in the middle and early June, mainly for consolidation.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

PVC analysts of the business club believe that, as the Dragon Boat Festival approaches, the market is stronger, the current price of PVC is rising, the market transaction atmosphere is getting better, and it will rise steadily in the short term. However, it is about to enter the traditional off-season, and the price may not rise sharply.