1、 Price data

According to the latest monitoring data of business agency, as of April 28, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic local refined hydrogenated naphtha was 8133.33 yuan / ton, down 3.67% from 8443.25 yuan / ton at the beginning of this month, and the overall price of local refined hydrogenated naphtha fell.

According to the latest monitoring data of business agency, as of April 28, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic refined straight run naphtha was 8027.50 yuan / ton, down 4.72% from 8425.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of this month, and the price of refined straight run naphtha fell as a whole.

On April 28, the naphtha commodity index was 100.38, unchanged from yesterday, down 17.48% from the highest point of 121.64 in the cycle (2022-03-10), and up 137.64% from the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: the overall price of refined naphtha fell this month. At present, the mainstream price of refined hydrogenated naphtha is about 8100-8200 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of straight run naphtha is about 8000-8100 yuan / ton. In April, the international crude oil fluctuated, the naphtha market was in a strong wait-and-see mood, the demand for olefins and aromatics in the naphtha terminal was weak, the impact of public health events in many places in China, the transportation was limited, the shipment of refineries was blocked, and the market transaction was general. As of the week of April 27, Singapore’s fuel stocks decreased by 3.959 million barrels to a seven month low of 19.144 million barrels. As of the week of April 27, Singapore’s light distillate oil inventory increased by 268000 barrels to 13.266 million barrels, the highest since March 30. As of the week of April 27, Singapore’s medium distillate stocks fell 1.98 million barrels to a three week low of 7.043 million barrels.

Upstream: the international crude oil shock in April was mainly due to the lower than expected increase in U.S. commercial crude oil inventories. The market is still dominated by concerns about tight global oil supply in the future. The market is intertwined with long and short, the global economic recovery slows down, the Federal Reserve’s expectation of raising interest rates rises, and the domestic epidemic suppresses demand, and oil prices are under pressure. On the other hand, the EU is considering imposing an oil ban on Russia, tightening supply expectations, limiting the decline in oil prices, and the recent crude oil price range has fluctuated.

Downstream: toluene fluctuated downward in April. The price of toluene was 7720.00 yuan / ton on April 1 and 7320.00 yuan / ton on April 28, down 5.18% from the beginning of the month. Mixed xylene fluctuated downward in April. The price of mixed xylene was 7860.00 yuan / ton on April 1 and 7330.00 yuan / ton on April 28, down 6.74% from the beginning of the month. The price of p-xylene remained stable in April. By the end of the month, the ex factory price of domestic p-xylene was 9300 yuan / ton, up 45.31% year-on-year.

3、 Future forecast

Energy analysts of business society believe that the international crude oil price fluctuates, the naphtha market has a strong wait-and-see mood, and the terminal demand is not significantly good. At present, the logistics recovery is slow and the market transaction is general. It is expected that the refining of naphtha in the near future may be dominated by consolidation.