1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 grade I products was 4866 yuan / ton on April 26, and 4866 yuan / ton on April 30. The price remained stable this week. On April 30, the commodity index of chlorinated paraffin was 72.46, which was the same as yesterday, 33.78% lower than the highest point of 109.43 (2013-12-03), and 13.48% higher than the lowest point of 63.85 on September 26, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-06-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: chlorinated paraffin market is stable this week. The ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Jiangsu Province is 4600-5000 yuan / ton, that of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Hebei Province is 3700-4500 yuan / ton, and that of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Henan Province is 4000-5300 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northeast China is 4300-5300 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Shandong Province is about 4800 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northwest China is 4800-5400 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in East China is 4500-5500 yuan / ton. The factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in North China is 4000-5000 yuan / ton. The factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in South China is 4500-5000 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: the current raw material market is in a stalemate operation with little volatility. The price of wax in upstream raw material solution maintained stable operation, and the delivery was average. The market price of raw material liquid chlorine is stable as a whole, the demand is reduced, and some areas are slightly adjusted.

3、 Future forecast

The analysts of chlorinated paraffin in business association believe that the trend of chlorinated paraffin is weak due to stable raw material market, high price of liquid chlorine, inactive terminal procurement and no good support in the near future. It is expected that the chlorinated paraffin market will maintain stable operation in the later stage.

1、 Price trend:

According to a large number of data on the list of business agencies, the market of PA6 in China fluctuated in the middle and late April. As of April 24, the main offer price of CCB 2.75-2.85 was about 10500.00 yuan / ton.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

For caprolactam upstream of PA6. At the beginning of the middle of this month, caprolactam rose due to favorable raw material market and downstream demand follow-up factors. Boosted by crude oil and external market, the focus of domestic pure benzene negotiation has strengthened, opening a rebound path. The price of pure benzene continued to rise. At present, caprolactam runs in horizontal plate, and the price is stable and weak. Some production lines were restarted, and the supply was on the rise. It is predicted that caprolactam will continue to weaken in the short term;

The price of caprolactam was rated as the main one, and the finishing was weak. PA6 cost surface is generally supported. At present, the price of PA6 in China has declined. Despite last week’s rise due to the positive cost side, the effect of this week’s resumption of the polymerization plant is beginning to show. Supply is on the rise and social inventory is on the rise. In addition, the downstream mainly adopts the strategy of just need replenishment, with less consumption. The inventory consumption of slicing enterprises is still slow, and the mentality of businesses is not strong. The contradiction between supply and demand has intensified, and PA6 market is expected to be weak in the short term.

3、 Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that: in the middle and late April, the domestic PA6 market was volatile, and some spot prices fell recently. The upstream caprolactam is flat in the near future, and PA6 is generally supported at the cost end. The demand for replenishment is weak in the downstream, and PA6 consumption needs to be further improved. PA6 market is expected to be weak in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the large scale list of business agencies, the price of domestic toluene market fell this week and recovered. As of Friday, the average domestic price was about 3280 yuan / ton, down 6.29% month on week.

2、 Analysis and comment

1. Product: due to the oversupply of international crude oil and the near saturation of storage capacity, the price of oil this week plummeted to the bottom again. For the first time in the contract delivery history of WTI in May, the price of domestic toluene fell this week. At present, the mainstream price in East China is around 3400 yuan / ton.

2. Industrial chain:

Upstream, in terms of crude oil, short-term international crude oil oversupply and storage capacity close to saturation led to another sharp drop in oil prices this week, and WTI fell to a negative range for the first time in the history of contract delivery in May. As of early Friday morning, spot Brent fell 19.09%, Brent futures fell 20.44%, WTI futures fell 34.08% and Dubai futures fell 12.09%.

On the downstream side, the demand for TDI is weak. At present, the quotation of Shanghai cargo delivery with bills is about 9500 yuan / ton, and the TDI settlement price of Wanhua chemical is 10000 yuan / ton this week. It is expected that the short-term TDI market will maintain a stable trend, and pay close attention to the plant’s later information guidance and the actual market trading situation. In PX market, this week, the price of domestic Sinopec’s enterprises is about 4300 yuan / ton, and the latest price of the external market is about 445 US dollars / ton for FOB South Korea and 463 US dollars / ton for CFR China. It is expected that the price of PX market will maintain a stable trend in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

Toluene analyst of business and chemical branch believes: in the short term, Saudi Arabia and Algeria, the main OPEC oil producing countries, said that they began to reduce production before the target date of May 1. The situation in the United States and Iran is tightening, which is favorable for oil prices. The international crude oil supply exceeds the demand, which is negative for oil trend. In the medium term, we can see the demand side, the inflection point of overseas epidemic and the progress of economic restart. Next week, we will focus on the impact of the US Iraq situation on the crude oil market, the trend of international crude oil and the progress of the resumption of construction of domestic downstream enterprises. Overall, it is expected that the price of toluene in the domestic market next week will depend on the trend of crude oil.

1、 Price trend:

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, in the week from April 20 to April 25, the domestic ABS market fell, and the spot market price mostly decreased by a small margin. As of Friday, April 25, the main offer price of general-purpose ABS was about 10850.00 yuan / ton, down 1.81% from the average level at the beginning of the week.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

Industry chain: in all upstream aspects of ABS, this week’s styrene market was mainly characterized by shocks, with a slight decline overall. Generally speaking, the whole styrene market lacks strong support points. Styrene is expected to be oversupplied in May, but crude oil has a greater impact on the styrene industrial chain. The trend of international crude oil fluctuated sharply, and the overall oil price fluctuated downward. There is still a possibility of rebound. It is expected that styrene will be mainly consolidated in a weak shock next week, with a price of 4400-5200 yuan / ton. The market needs to pay close attention to the trend of crude oil price;

This week, the market of acrylonitrile was stable temporarily. In the near future, it will enter the traditional maintenance peak season, and some enterprises in the site also plan to reduce production to ease the supply pressure. The downstream return to work rate is still lower than that before the festival, and rigid procurement is adopted for goods preparation, but the demand has not improved. At present, the mentality of the industry is still wait-and-see, and the market lacks direction;

The domestic butadiene market fell sharply in the first and middle of this month, and is currently in a sideways position. The downstream inquiry is sluggish, and the resistance of butadiene business to delivery is still there, so the market has a heavy wait-and-see mentality. In terms of external market, European market supply is under pressure, and the inventory of downstream rubber industry is high. At present, the domestic butadiene is abundant in spot supply, but some manufacturers have maintenance plans for their devices, the supply pressure has been eased, and the downstream takes goods cautiously;

3、 Future forecast:

Business analysts think: this week, the ABS market is weak and stable, and the spot prices of various brands are adjusted in a narrow range. Cost side of the upstream three short-term trend are general, the cost of support ambiguous. At present, the spot supply of ABS is relatively sufficient, but the downstream demand is weak and the contradiction between supply and demand is increasing. The business mentality is not strong. Negative still dominates, and it is expected that domestic ABS prices will continue to adjust in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business association, the average price of soda ash market in East China is about 1480 yuan / ton. On April 19, the commodity index of light soda ash was 75.90, which was the same as yesterday, down 35.60% from 117.86 (2017-11-21), the highest point in the cycle, and up 20.19% from 63.15, the lowest point on November 18, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: the domestic soda market is in negative pressure operation, coupled with the impact of public health events in the first quarter, the domestic soda market is becoming more and more difficult. According to the monitoring data of the business association, the price of light soda ash is 9.02% lower than the average market price of 1626.67 yuan / ton in early December 2019. The overall inventory of the enterprise is still on the high side, the price of soda ash keeps low, the inventory of soda ash is seriously overstocked, the capital turnover of the enterprise is difficult, and the economic operation of the industry is poor. The inventory of soda ash enterprises remains at a high level: according to the data, the market of soda ash has reached the inventory level of about 1.4 million tons. In the same period of 2019, the inventory is about 255000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 1.145 million tons, an increase of 449%. At present, the overall industry operating rate is maintained at about 80%, and the overall operating rate of soda ash is maintained at a high level.

Statistics of operation rate of soda ash industry from January to April 2020:

Demand: the main downstream of soda ash is still glass products, but the overall inventory of glass is at a high level. The downstream processing enterprises generally start work, and some foreign trade processing enterprises postpone or cancel orders, which are relatively weak in the multi glass market. In addition, some light alkali downstream industries, such as printing and dyeing, textile and so on, lack of orders at home and abroad, the operation of enterprises is difficult, the demand for soda ash is low, and the overall delivery of soda ash is not smooth. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 15th week of 2020 (4.13-4.17), there is a total of one rising commodity, three falling commodities and one rising and falling commodity. The main commodities that rose were hydrochloric acid (1.20%); the main commodities that fell were calcium carbide (- 6.50%), light soda ash (- 5.33%) and PVC (- 0.31%). This week’s average was – 2.19%.

3、 Future forecast

According to the soda ash analyst of business association: on April 14, China Soda Ash Industry Association issued the notice on production restriction of soda ash industry, which requires soda ash production enterprises to reduce 30% load for production according to their soda ash capacity from April 18, 2020 to October 18, 2020, reduce the production of soda ash and ammonium chloride, reduce inventory, and promote the clearance of excess capacity. Once this notice was issued, it attracted wide attention of the soda industry and boosted the confidence of the soda industry. However, on the 16th, China Soda Industry Association abolished the notice of production restriction in the soda industry and issued the initiative of production reduction in the soda industry, which failed to meet market expectations. At present, the soda ash market is still high as a whole, the downstream market and domestic and foreign markets are still affected by public health events, and there is still pressure on the enterprise’s shipment. It is comprehensively expected that the soda ash market will remain weak and stable in the short term, depending on the downstream market demand.

1、 Market price trend of POM

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the average price of polyformaldehyde (96) in Shandong Province at the end of this week was 4366 yuan / ton, and the average price at the beginning of this week was 4233 yuan / ton, up 3.15%.

2、 Market analysis

Product: Shandong aldehyde Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 30000 tons of POM, and the ex factory quotation of POM (96) is 4200 yuan / ton, which is 200 yuan / ton higher than last week. Linyi Shengyang Chemical Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 9000 tons of POM. The ex factory quotation of POM (96) is 4300 yuan / ton, which is 200 yuan / ton higher than last week. Zibo Qixing Chemical Technology Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 10000 tons of POM, and the ex factory quotation of POM (96) is 4600 yuan / ton, which is the same as last week. Polyoxymethylene manufacturers raised their prices, and the market demand was acceptable.

Industry chain: upstream methanol, domestic methanol market is mainly strong. According to the price monitoring of business agency, the average price of domestic methanol market on April 1 was 1600 yuan / ton, and the price of domestic methanol market on April 14 was 1790 yuan / ton, an increase of 11.80%.

3、 Future forecast

Polyoxymethylene analysts of business club think that polyoxymethylene rose due to the positive impact of raw material methanol.

1、 Price trend:

According to statistics, the trend of domestic p-xylene ex factory price this week is temporarily stable. The weekend average price is 4300 yuan / ton, which is the same as that at the beginning of the week, down 48.81% year on year.

2、 Market analysis:

Products: this week, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable, the domestic PX operation rate is maintained at more than 70%, the operation of new 600000 ton Hongrun unit is stable, the operation of Huizhou refining and chemical unit is stable, the first line of Fuhai Chuang unit is started, the operation of Pengzhou petrochemical unit is stable, the operation of Yangzi Petrochemical PX unit is normal, the operation of Jinling Petrochemical unit is stable, the operation of Qingdao Lidong unit is full load, Qilu Petrochemical equipment is stable With stable operation, Urumqi petrochemical plant starts at about 50%, Hengli petrochemical plant operates normally, and domestic p-xylene supply is normal. Due to the decline of crude oil price, domestic p-xylene market price trend remains low. This week, the operating rate of PX plant in Asia is more than 70%, and the supply of PX goods in Asia is normal. This week, the external price of PX drops slightly. As of the end of the week, the closing price of PX market in Asia is 448-450 US dollars / ton FOB South Korea and 468-470 US dollars / ton CFR China. Affected by the drop of international crude oil price, the external price of PX drops slightly this week, and more than 40% of domestic products need to be imported , the decline of closing price of PX external market has a certain negative impact on the domestic market, and the domestic PX market price remains low.

Industry chain: the closing price of international crude oil fell this week. As of the 16th, the main price contract of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States was 19.87 yuan / barrel. Brent crude oil futures market price rose slightly, the main contract was 27.82 US dollars / barrel, and the sharp drop of international oil price shocked the global market. OPEC + countries, as well as the United States, Brazil and Canada, reached a new agreement on Sunday to reduce production by 9.7 million barrels per day within the OPEC + group from May 1. If the G20 countries are taken into account, this reduction may increase to 15 million barrels / day. These production cuts will extend to the end of June, then cut 7.7 million barrels of oil per day between July and the end of the year, and then cut 5.8 million barrels of oil per day between January 2021 and April 2022. The sharp drop in crude oil price is a huge negative for domestic chemical products, and the domestic market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable. The price trend of PTA Market in the downstream of this week is slightly lower. By the end of the week, the PTA Market in East China had been negotiated to be around 3300-3400 yuan. In the near future, with the gradual restart of these maintenance devices, the starting load of PTA industry has been increased to 93%, far higher than the actual demand load of PTA corresponding to the current polyester operating rate. It is expected that the contradiction between PTA supply and demand will continue to increase in the later period, and the industry inventory will rise again in 2020 From January to March, the cumulative export of China’s textiles and clothing decreased by 17.70% year on year. The terminal weaving enterprises without orders have to stop production and have holidays. In recent years, Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving enterprises have been operating at a low level around 55%, 14% lower than the peak after the year, and nearly 30% lower than last year. The downstream market is poor, and the market price of p-xylene has remained at a low level.

Industry: this week, the textile industry is in a poor situation, and the export market has been greatly hit. However, affected by the decline of crude oil price, the market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable.

3、 Future forecast:

Chen Ling, an analyst at PX business club, thinks that the crude oil price will remain low in the near future, but the inventory of downstream textile enterprises is high, the operating rate of downstream textile industry is average, and the supply of domestic PX market is normal. It is expected that the PX market price will keep a small decline next week.

1、 Price trend chart of nitric acid Market

Nitric acid price curve

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the average price of nitric acid in East China this weekend was 1550 yuan / ton, while the average price at the beginning of the week was 1600 yuan / ton, down 3.12%.

2、 Market analysis

Products: the price of concentrated nitric acid enterprises has declined, Jiangsu Hongze Yinzhu Chemical Co., Ltd. has offered 1400 yuan / ton, 100 yuan / ton lower than last week; Anhui Jinhe Chemical Co., Ltd. has offered 1450-1500 yuan / ton, 100 yuan / ton lower than last week; Shandong helitai Chemical Co., Ltd. has offered 1750 yuan / ton, the price is even compared with last week; nitric acid market demand is light.

Industrial chain: upstream liquid ammonia, the price of liquid ammonia this week is temporarily stable. Downstream aniline, weak downward this week; TDI, weak stable finishing this week.

3、 Future forecast

The nitric acid analyst of the business association predicted that the nitric acid market demand was not good and the weak operation was dominant.

1、 Price trend of lithium carbonate:

(Figure: P value curve of lithium carbonate product)

2、 Market analysis:

Product: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, the market of lithium carbonate is in a weak position in the near future. Power terminal consumption recovered slowly, demand was lower than expected, manufacturers’ shipment was under pressure, downstream bargaining power was strong, and the focus of lithium carbonate market negotiation was lowered. As of April 14, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 43000 yuan / ton, down 1.38% compared with April 1 and 37.5% compared with the same period last year. On April 14, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 48000 yuan / ton, down 3.61% compared with April 1 and 39.55% compared with the same period last year.

On April 13, the lithium carbonate commodity index was 109.55, down 1.53 points from yesterday, down 72.96% from 405.10 (2018-01-07), and up 11.17% from 98.54, the lowest point on October 16, 2014. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, on April 13, 2020, in the list of commodity prices, there are 26 kinds of commodities in the chemical sector, including 9 kinds of commodities with an increase rate of more than 5%, accounting for 10.3% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are propylene (58.56%), acetone (27.27%) and propane (24.94%). There are 13 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 2 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 2.3% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 products falling are butadiene (- 8.62%), hydrogen peroxide (- 6.64%), and R22 (- 2.80%). This day, the average rise and fall was 2.13%.

3、 Future forecast:

According to analysts of lithium carbonate of business association, the current downstream demand is weak, and the supply and demand situation of the market is still not significantly improved. It is expected that in the short term, the lithium carbonate market will be dominated by weak consolidation and operation, and more attention should be paid to the cost and the operating rate of production enterprises.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of bulk data of business association, this week’s domestic acetic acid market first suppressed and then rose, with an overall decline of 1.59% in the week. At present, the quotation in Henan is about 1850 yuan / ton; in Shandong, about 2000-2100 yuan / ton; in Hebei, about 2100 yuan / ton; in Shaanxi, about 1750 yuan / ton; in Jiangsu, about 2000-2100 yuan / ton; in Zhejiang, about 2100-2200 yuan / ton About 2100-2200 yuan / ton for delivery in South China.

2、 Cause analysis

Products: due to the stable start-up of domestic acetic acid enterprises and sufficient market supply, many enterprises bid for shipment, and the price of acetic acid continued to fall. With the introduction of overhaul and repair plans of Thorpe, Celanese, Yankuang and other large factories, the rise of crude oil price led to the recovery of acetic acid raw material methanol. In addition, traders and downstream users copied the bottom, the price of acetic acid rose slightly, but the actual demand still rose Slightly inadequate.

Industry chain: in the upstream, the domestic methanol market has a good delivery situation, a small storage pressure, and some enterprises have a good mentality. At present, it is about 1725 yuan / ton; the domestic acetate, vinyl acetate and other industries are still under construction, and the demand for acetic acid is just lower than that of the previous years. As the price of acetic acid bottoms, some enterprises start to copy the bottom, and the market negotiation is gradually active; the weekly ratio of PTA market is higher Up 4.75%, driven by the strong crude oil, the raw material market price rose, forming a good support for the polyester filament market.

International: affected by global health events, the price of international acetic acid continues to decline. At present, the price of acetic acid Market in North America is about 430 US dollars / ton; that in Asia is about 250-320 US dollars / ton; that in Europe is about 570 euros / ton.

3、 Future forecast

According to the acetic acid analyst of the business association, there is not enough space for raw material methanol to go up, and the cost of acetic acid is generally supported. Although the acetic acid market has become active in recent years by bargain hunting, there is still no substantial improvement in the demand side. In addition, the enterprise inventory is high, and it is expected that it will continue to operate in a weak position in the short term. With the introduction of maintenance plans by large factories in East China, North China and other places, the spot supply of acetic acid will appear in May Tightening, acetic acid prices may be improved, the future market still need to pay attention to enterprise inventory.