On August 25, the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market prices rose, with the settlement price of main contracts at $43.35/barrel, up $0.73. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose, the main contract settlement price to 46.29 U.S. dollars / barrel, up 0.65 dollars. WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil reached the highest level since March, mainly due to the hurricane, most of the offshore crude oil production units along the Gulf of Mexico were shut down, and supply risk partially offset the impact of the epidemic.

 

Azodicarbonamide (AC foaming Agent)

According to relevant overseas news, the U.S. energy industry is preparing for the coming of Hurricane Laura, which experts say is the most threatening for the US oil industry in 15 years.

 

Oil producers are urgently cutting crude oil production in the wake of the hurricane. In addition, they have suspended most refining units along the coast of Texas and Louisiana. According to the American Energy Information Association (EIA), oil production in the Gulf of Mexico coastal areas hit by the hurricane accounts for 17% of the total U.S. production, and refining capacity accounts for more than 45%. Refineries that produce gasoline and diesel are taking steps to shut down nine facilities, which are calculated to process nearly 2.9 million barrels of crude oil a day, or 14.6 percent of the total refining capacity of the United States. This has a significant impact on US oil supply. Currently, 82% of oil production and 57% of natural gas production have been shut down in the Gulf of Mexico. Oil producers along the Gulf Coast cut crude oil production by 1.56 million barrels per day. The sharp drop in supply has provided a boost to oil prices.

 

Melamine

In addition, foreign news on August 25, data released by the American Petroleum Association (API) on Tuesday showed that US crude oil and gasoline inventories fell last week. As of August 21, crude oil inventories fell by 4.5 million barrels, and analysts estimated a decrease of 3.7 million barrels. API said crude oil inventories in Cushing, Oklahoma, fell by 646000 barrels. Gasoline inventories fell 6.4 million barrels last week, with analysts expecting a 1.5 million decline. Inventories have fallen for weeks in a row, which also supports the current relatively high oil prices.

 

The business agency believes that in the near future, oil prices may continue to consolidate at a high level. On the one hand, under the influence of the Gulf of Mexico hurricane, the shutdown of oil plants will reduce the impact of supply, and on the other hand, it will be a good support for the decline of inventory for several weeks. However, in the medium term, the oil price does not have the fundamental basis of a substantial upward trend. Except for the OPEC + oil producing countries’ agreement on production reduction, the scale of production reduction will gradually decrease, and the supply will be reduced In the medium and long term, there are certain risks; what’s more, there are still great risks in the current epidemic situation in Europe, America and Asia, and the pace of demand recovery may be affected by the epidemic situation for a long time. Therefore, it is difficult to make a substantial breakthrough in oil prices in the medium and long term.

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1、 Price trend

 

Azodicarbonamide (AC foaming Agent)

According to the business club’s big list data, this week’s domestic toluene market trend is stable. As of Friday, the domestic average price was about 3380 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with last week.

 

2、 Analysis and comment

 

This week, the international oil price rose slightly and then fell back. As a whole, it was in a narrow range. Affected by this, the trend of toluene price was stable this week. As of the end of last week, the port inventory in East China was about 76000 tons, with a decrease of 14000 tons compared with last week. The pressure to go to the warehouse still exists, but the import volume decreased this month, and the shortage of filling capacity began to ease. The main price in East China is about 3360 yuan / ton. As the new coronavirus epidemic leads to the reduction of crude oil demand and the impact of geopolitical tightening on economic recovery concerns, the market continues to pay attention to the impact of the continued spread of overseas epidemic on the demand for crude oil, and the progress of the European and American economic recovery rescue plan.

 

Upstream, crude oil, this week, the international oil price rose slightly and then fell back. As of Friday, spot Brent fell $0.945/barrel to close at $43.57/barrel, down 2.12% from last week. The longer the oscillation lasts, the greater the possibility of large fluctuations in the future. The future market will pay close attention to the fluctuation and breakthrough of Brent crude oil between $42-46 / barrel. The future crude oil demand prospect and oil price trend mainly depend on the trend of global epidemic situation and the orderly recovery of national economy. At the same time, how oil producing countries and oil enterprises adjust their production is also an important factor affecting oil prices.

 

Potassium monopersulfate

In the downstream, TDI continued to rise this week, and the atmosphere in the market became warmer. For domestic goods with bill of lading in East China, the reference was 13300-13500 yuan / ton, and that of Shanghai was around 14000 yuan / ton. It is expected that the short-term TDI market will maintain a small upward trend. In terms of PX market, the listed price of domestic Sinopec’s enterprises is about 4600 yuan / ton this week, and the latest external price is about 530 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 548 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that the PX market in the short term will be slightly reduced.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

According to toluene analyst of chemical branch of business society: in the short term, OPEC + production reduction, total number of American oil wells and EIA, API inventory data. In the medium term, on the demand side, the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States, the geopolitical situation between China and the United States, and the continuous deterioration of the global second epidemic situation have an impact on the economic restart of crude oil demand and the recovery progress of the industrial chain. Next week, we will focus on the impact of the continued spread of overseas epidemic on the demand for crude oil due to the economic restart and recovery, as well as the progress of the European and American economic recovery rescue plan. On the whole, it is expected that toluene prices in the domestic market will continue to fluctuate slightly next week.

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1、 Price trend

 

Chitosan oligosaccharide

This week, the selling price of sulfuric acid in Shandong Province rose slightly, with the quotation rising from 427.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 435.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 1.75%. Overall, the sulfuric acid market rose this week, and the sulfuric acid commodity index on August 21 was 67.70.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the price of mainstream sulfuric acid manufacturers in Shandong Province rose slightly this week, with less inventory and stronger downstream demand. Heze Jiangyuan quoted 360 yuan / ton at the weekend, which was 10 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; Zouping Tianlu offered 260 yuan / ton at the weekend, 20 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; Jinan Yuanfei quoted 550 yuan / T, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; kunshengda of Taiyuan City quoted 570 yuan / T at the weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week.

 

Azodicarbonamide (AC foaming Agent)

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the upstream sulfur market has risen slightly recently, and the cost support is good. However, the market of monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate in the lower reaches has a positive impact on sulfuric acid, and the price of bromine is also rising steadily. There are many favorable factors in the downstream. At the same time, some sulfuric acid factories are short of operation recently, the load is reduced, and the supply of sulfuric acid is in short supply.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

In the last ten days of August, the market of sulfuric acid in Shandong Province rose mainly due to small fluctuation. The price of sulfur in the upstream has risen slightly in recent years, and the downstream market has been consolidated at a high level. The demand for sulfuric acid in the downstream is positive, and the product trend is upward under the contradiction between supply and demand. The sulfuric acid analysts of the business agency believe that the short-term Shandong market in the supply and demand and raw materials and other aspects of the impact of sulfuric acid market or a small rise.

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1、 Market price trend chart of paraformaldehyde

 

Melamine

Polyoxymethylene price curve

 

According to the monitoring of business agency, this week, the average quotation of Polyoxymethylene (96) in Shandong was 4400 yuan / ton, which was the same as last week.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

Shandong aldehyde Chemical Industry Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 30000 tons of paraformaldehyde, Polyoxymethylene (96) ex factory, including tax, quoted 4600 yuan / ton, which was the same as last week. Linyi Shengyang Chemical Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 9000 tons of paraformaldehyde, Polyoxymethylene (96) ex factory, including tax, quoted 4100 yuan / ton, which was the same as last week. Zibo Qixing Chemical Technology Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 10000 tons of paraformaldehyde, Polyoxymethylene (96) ex factory, including tax, quoted 4500 yuan / ton, which was 100 yuan / ton lower than last week. Paraformaldehyde is still in general.

 

According to the price monitoring of the upstream methanol, the domestic methanol market weakened on the 18th, and some manufacturers reduced the ex factory quotation by about 20-50 yuan / ton. The average methanol price at the beginning of the week was 1620 yuan / ton, and the average price at the weekend was 1615 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.31%.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

Raw material support is limited, business community polyoxymethylene analysts believe: polyoxymethylene prices will fall.

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Price trend

 

EDTA

According to the business agency data monitoring, plasticizer Market weakened in August and DOP prices fell. As of August 17, the DOP price was 6966.67 yuan / ton, down 0.95% from 7033.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

 

Upstream market of industrial chain

It can be seen from the trend chart of raw material phthalic anhydride that the price of DOP raw material phthalic anhydride fluctuated in August, the cost of DOP decreased, and the downward pressure of DOP increased. This week, the price of phthalic anhydride hit the bottom and rebounded. The increasing power of phthalic anhydride, DOP cost and DOP increase.

 

EDTA 2Na

It can be seen from the octanol price trend chart that the octanol price fell in August and the pressure of DOP cost decline increased. This week, the octanol price rebounded and rose, the DOP cost rose, and the driving force of DOP market rose.

 

Downstream market of industrial chain

 

It can be seen from the PVC price trend chart that the PVC price fluctuated in August, the downstream market of plasticizer DOP fell, and the pressure of plasticizer DOP was increased. PVC prices fell sharply this week, the plasticizer Market negative, plasticizer drop pressure is greater.

 

Market review and future expectation

 

Bai Jiaxin, an analyst with DOP data of business agency, believes that since August, raw material prices and PVC prices have fallen, while plasticizer prices have fluctuated and fallen, and DOP market is under great pressure. Since this week, the price of raw materials phthalic anhydride and octanol hit the bottom and rebounded, which was good for DOP market, PVC market fell and negative for DOP market remained. Generally speaking, DOP market has fallen since August. This week, DOP industry chain market has bottomed out and rebounded. DOP market has upward momentum, and later DOP market has stronger upward momentum. It is expected that DOP market will be stable.

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According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of August 14, the average price quoted by domestic premium DMF enterprises was 6133.33 yuan / ton. The focus of DMF market negotiation shifted upward, and the price continued to rise. Compared with the same period last month, the price of DMF increased by 25.6%, 5.14% compared with the same period last week, and the increase was about 300 yuan / ton in a week.

 

Benzalkonium chloride

As of August 14, Luxi Chemical quoted 6000 yuan / ton, Zhangqiu Riyue 6500 yuan / ton, Hualu Hengsheng 6400 yuan / ton, Shaanxi Xinghua 6200 yuan / ton, Guangdong 6700 yuan / ton, Jiangsu 6550 yuan / ton, Zhejiang 6600 yuan / ton Yuan / ton, 6500-6650 yuan / ton in East China market and 6600-6800 yuan / ton in South China market.

 

The upstream methanol delivery situation is different, and the overall stability is given priority to. The traders operate cautiously. The downstream just needs to purchase, and the methanol market is narrow in the short term.

 

On August 13, the chemical index was 676 points, up 1 point compared with yesterday, 33.46% lower than 1016 points (2012-03-13), and 13.04% higher than 598 points, the lowest point on April 8, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

 

Business agency DMF analysts believe: in the short term, DMF digestion of early growth, inventory is still tense trend. (the above prices are provided by major DMF manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by business DMF analysts for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details.)

Bacillus thuringiensis

According to the data monitored by the business agency, this week, the domestic industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate was quoted at 4187.50 yuan / ton. The current price was flat on a month on month basis, and the current price was 2.90% lower than last year.

 

Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid)

This week, the domestic market of potassium nitrate remained stable. Downstream factories took more goods on demand, with relatively sufficient inventory and insufficient upward momentum. The price of this week has not changed much. According to the statistics of the business agency, the domestic mainstream manufacturers of potassium nitrate quoted 4000-4400 yuan / ton this week (the quotation is for reference only). According to different purchasing conditions, the quotations are different.

 

This week, the upstream supply of potassium chloride is more sufficient, domestic potassium production is normal, the shipment situation is relatively slow, the market new order transaction is less, the trading atmosphere is flat and light, the domestic potassium chloride market fluctuation is not big. Limited support for potassium nitrate.

 

In the near future, the supply of imported potassium goods is relatively sufficient. New sources of goods have arrived in the north and South ports, and the port inventory is at a high level. It is expected that in the short term, the market price of potassium nitrate will mainly fall below.

Chitosan oligosaccharide

From July 27 to 31, 2020, the price of coke market in Shanxi region will keep stable operation at the beginning of the week, and will rise at the end of the week. The price will be 1660 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 1660 yuan / ton at the weekend, which is the same as last week.

Benzalkonium chloride

On July 31, the coke commodity index was 87.14, flat with yesterday, 35.47% lower than 135.04 (September 13, 2018), and 151.49% higher than the lowest point of 34.65 on March 3, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

 

Summary of domestic coke market price (unit: yuan / ton)

 

region

Specifications

July 31 price

Up and down compared with the same period last month

Shanghai area

 
Secondary metallurgical coke

 

one thousand eight hundred and eighty

-130

Quasi first grade metallurgical coke

 

one thousand nine hundred and forty

-130

Xuzhou region

 
Secondary metallurgical coke

 

one thousand eight hundred and fifty

-130

Quasi first grade metallurgical coke

 

one thousand nine hundred and ten

-130

Weifang Area

 
Secondary metallurgical coke

 

one thousand seven hundred and ninety

-150

Quasi first grade metallurgical coke

 

one thousand eight hundred and fifty

-150

Taiyuan Area

 
Secondary metallurgical coke

 

one thousand six hundred and ninety

-150

Quasi first grade metallurgical coke

 

one thousand seven hundred and forty

-150

Jinzhong region

 
Secondary metallurgical coke

 

one thousand six hundred and fifty

-150

Quasi first grade metallurgical coke

 

one thousand seven hundred and ten

-150

Tangshan area

 
Secondary metallurgical coke

 

one thousand seven hundred and eighty

-150

Quasi first grade metallurgical coke

 

one thousand eight hundred and thirty

-150

Shenyang area

 
Secondary metallurgical coke

 

one thousand seven hundred and ten

-150

Quasi first grade metallurgical coke

 

one thousand seven hundred and seventy

-150

This week, the coke market has been running steadily. Coke and steel enterprises have strong game psychology and the trend of coke is not very clear. Since 0:00 on the 28th, the ex factory price of metallurgical coke of coke production enterprises in Weifang, Binzhou, Dezhou, Jining, Zaozhuang, Heze, Rizhao, Tai’an and other places in Shandong Province has increased 50 yuan / ton on the basis of the original price. The increase was not accepted by the downstream steel mills. On the 30th, the high sulfur coke (customized coke) was reduced by 20-50 yuan / ton, the high sulfur coke (s1.5) was reduced by 20 yuan / ton, and the high sulfur coke (s1.8) was reduced by 50 yuan / ton, which was implemented from 0:00 on July 31. Up to now, the price of coke in Shandong is 1800 yuan / ton.

 

ferric sulfate (Poly ferric sulphate)

In terms of demand, the blast furnace start-up rate of downstream steel mills is still high, and the demand for coke is good. However, the coke inventory of steel mills has increased recently, and most of the steel mills’ procurement has slowed down. At present, the existing stocks have been digested.

 

Summary of domestic port coke market price (unit: yuan / ton)

 

Port

varieties

sunshine

July 27th

July 31st

Quasi first class trade

Trade level 2

Quasi first class trade

Trade level 2

one thousand nine hundred and fifty

one thousand eight hundred and fifty

one thousand nine hundred and fifty

one thousand eight hundred and fifty

Tianjin

Quasi first class trade

Trade level

Quasi first class trade

Trade level

one thousand nine hundred and fifty

two thousand and fifty

one thousand nine hundred and fifty

two thousand and fifty

This week, the price of port remained stable. As of the end of the week, there was an increase in port concentration, limited trading volume and low port inventory. As of the end of the week, the trading volume of the port market was slightly poor, and the quotation was temporarily stable. In terms of inventory, there are 240000 tons in Tianjin port this week, about 10000 tons higher than last week, and 945000 tons in Rizhao port this week, up 45000 tons compared with last week.

 

In terms of aftermarket, the business agency believes that in the near future, coking enterprises are more active in shipping, the inventory of downstream steel mills is on the high side in the middle, and most steel mills mainly purchase on demand. At present, coke and steel enterprises are playing games, some manufacturers are mainly waiting and waiting, and the fourth round of price reduction has not been implemented. It is expected that the future market of coke market will be stable temporarily, and there is still possibility of further downward adjustment.

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On July 30, cryolite commodity index was 70.85, flat with yesterday, down 30.00% from 101.21 (2011-10-31), and 6.78% higher than 66.35, the lowest point on September 05, 2016. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to the present). According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the price trend of domestic cryolite market is temporarily stable, and the average price of cryolite market in Henan is 5833.33 yuan / ton.

 

Azodicarbonamide (AC foaming Agent)

At present, the market of cryolite is stable, the start-up of enterprise devices is normal, the quotation has no obvious fluctuation, and the overall price trend of the market is stable.

 

On the upstream side, fluorite prices remain high and stable. At present, the average price of fluorite in the domestic market is 2811.11 yuan / ton. The manufacturers operate stably and the supply of goods in the yard is normal. However, the sales situation is general and the order quantity is small. It is expected that the fluorite price will adjust downward in the future. In the sulphuric acid market, the recent price trend in Shandong has maintained stable operation. The manufacturers have a small inventory and tight supply. The downstream demand for it is strong. The supply and demand reflects that the sulfuric acid market may maintain a high level in the next and later stages.

 

Analysts of cryolite products from the business agency believe that: at present, the upstream fluorite and sulfuric acid markets are temporarily stable, and cryolite enterprises are operating normally and have sufficient stocks. It is expected that the short-term cryolite market will continue the stable price trend and pay attention to the market demand.

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This week (7.20-24), the domestic polysilicon market maintained the trend of last week, and the price still rose slightly. According to the monitoring of business agency, polysilicon rose by 0.72% this week. As of the end of the week, the domestic price of primary polysilicon materials was in the range of 40000-45000 yuan / ton, mainly due to the tight market supply, especially in some areas, such as Xinjiang, affected by the epidemic, traffic restrictions leading to poor transportation, and the rising cost of polysilicon in large factories.

 

Bacillus thuringiensis

In late July, some domestic polysilicon manufacturers are still in the maintenance period, so the supply pressure is obviously relieved compared with the beginning of the month, and the supply in some markets is tight. According to statistics, as of July 24, there were 4 polysilicon manufacturers still in the maintenance period. The manufacturers had separate line maintenance or equipment maintenance, and the domestic and domestic supply pressure was not great. In addition, due to the recent epidemic situation in Xinjiang, the external transportation of large polysilicon factories in Xinjiang was blocked, and the cost increased. Overall, the supply of fundamentals is tight. So there has been a sustained rebound in prices. Moreover, the price of imported silicon materials has also increased, further impacting the domestic market. On the whole, the price of polysilicon has generally increased by 2000-4000 yuan / ton this month.

 

Chitosan oligosaccharide

From the perspective of terminal demand, the general rigid demand still exists, which is warmer than that in June. With the gradual decrease of silicon material inventory of upstream and downstream manufacturers and the tightening of market supply, on the contrary, the demand for silicon wafers rises. The operating rate of monocrystalline silicon enterprises maintains full production, and the newly expanded capacity is released on schedule. The demand for monocrystalline silicon continues to rise, and the price demand of polycrystalline silicon also goes up, thus pushing up the price 。 However, from the point of view of terminal cells, whether the price of polycrystalline silicon can continue is also open to discussion. The price of polycrystalline cells has not been significantly increased, and the cost pressure is high. Now the price has approached the cash cost of manufacturers. Some manufacturers of polycrystalline cells have begun to have plans to overhaul and stop production. On the one hand, it comes from China, and more importantly, it is affected by the export caused by the epidemic.

 

In the later stage, the business club believes that the current price of polysilicon rebounded slightly, mainly due to the reduction of supply, and the cycle of polysilicon de stocking has basically come to an end. It is expected that there will still be enterprises in the maintenance period in August, with the impact of the epidemic situation in Xinjiang superimposed. It is expected that the supply pressure will still be tight in August. However, the market can continue to rebound is also more difficult. At present, the demand for polysilicon mainly comes from domestic rigid demand. External demand is still weak, and the overseas epidemic situation is still relatively severe. The export data of photovoltaic modules in June has not been released, and it is expected that there will not be much improvement compared with the data in May. The improvement of external demand still needs time. It is estimated that the polysilicon bottoms and stabilizes at present, and whether it can continue to rise in the future remains to be further observed.

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