1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s large scale list, the market price of cryolite this week was stable. The average market price in Henan Province was 5600.00 yuan / ton in the week, which was flat compared with the price at the end of last week, down 12.04% compared with last year. On June 21, the cryolite commodity index was 68.02, unchanged from yesterday, down 32.79% from 101.21 (2011-10-31), the highest point in the cycle, and up 2.52% from 66.35, the lowest point on September 5, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

2、 Market analysis

The domestic price of cryolite is stable this week. As of the 19th, the price of cryolite in Shandong Province is about 5000-6800 yuan / ton, while that in Henan Province is 4800-6000 yuan / ton. Cryolite enterprises in Henan Province follow the trend of the market, and their quotations are mostly stable. The manufacturers start normal operation of their devices, have sufficient inventory, and mainly sell them according to the orders. At present, about 70% of Zhengzhou Tianrui grain Co., Ltd. has started construction, with more downstream demand and acceptable inventory; Jiaozuo Minli Industrial Co., Ltd. has a full unit load, normal operation and sufficient supply.

In terms of upstream fluorite, the price trend this week was temporarily stable. The average price of domestic market at the weekend was 2744.44 yuan / ton, which was stable compared with that at the weekend last year. At present, the domestic fluorite manufacturers operate stably, the supply of goods in the field is normal, the stock in the field is acceptable, the downstream users purchase on demand, and the goods are in general condition. Recently, the enterprises reflect that the downstream inquiry has increased, and the market price of fluorite is expected to increase slightly. In the aspect of downstream electrolytic aluminum, under the high pressure of raw material cost, electrolytic aluminum enterprises overhaul ahead of time and take the initiative to reduce production suspension, which may cause short-term shortage of supply and demand.

3、 Future forecast

According to the cryolite analysts of the business association, in terms of the supply and demand performance of the cryolite market at present, the manufacturers are operating normally with sufficient inventory, but the downstream demand is flat, and the enterprises mostly sell on a single basis. It is expected that the cryolite market will operate stably in the short term, with specific attention to the market demand.

On June 22, at the beginning of the week, the domestic adipic acid price was stable. The manufacturer’s quotation is temporarily stable, the unit maintains normal operation rate, and the inventory pressure is obvious. The market is in a state of oversupply, the downstream demand is weak, and the off-season effect is still there. At the cost end, pure benzene has dropped from a high level since last week, with a weekly decline of 1.62%, and the fundamentals are generally negative.

In terms of local markets:

The market of adipic acid in East China is stable, and the price has not changed much compared with that of last weekend, and there is little change in market inquiry. Downstream demand is still relatively weak, adipic acid price is still relatively low in history, and most dealers’ quotations go with the market. Today, the mainstream market prices are: acceptance price of Shandong source 6700-6800 yuan / ton, acceptance price of Jiangsu source 6800-6900 yuan / ton, and most downstream purchases are based on rigid demand.

The adipic acid Market in South China is also stable, with little change in price compared with the previous weekend. Most dealers reported stable market atmosphere. Dealers quoted prices on the market, and the transaction was general. Today’s mainstream market prices are: Shandong’s 6700-6800 yuan / ton acceptance price, Jiangsu’s 6800-6900 yuan / ton acceptance price, and most of the downstream purchases are just needed.

This week, adipic acid, suffering from supply pressure and weak demand, may remain weak. Prices are weak, not excluding the possibility of a small decline in prices.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, since June, the hydrogen peroxide manufacturers have been intensively overhauling, the terminal rigid demand has increased, the price of hydrogen peroxide has been rising continuously, with an increase of over 18%, 3% at the beginning of the month, over 7% in a single day on August 8, and over 5% on November 11. As of June 18, the average market price of 27.5% hydrogen peroxide was 920 yuan / ton, up 18.45% from the beginning of June.

According to the monthly rise and fall chart of hydrogen peroxide from June 2019 to may 2020, it can be seen that the price of hydrogen peroxide is rising from February to may 2019. In June, the price of hydrogen peroxide dropped by more than 20%, and only in August saw a big rise. However, in the first five months of 2020, hydrogen peroxide rose by only 0.9% in January, fell from February to may, fell by more than 18% in February and by more than 10% in April. Four months in a row. In June, hydrogen peroxide bottomed out and rebounded. By the end of June 18, hydrogen peroxide had risen by more than 18%.

Hydrogen peroxide in 2020 is abnormal compared with 2019, mainly because the downstream terminal of hydrogen peroxide in 2020 is limited, the terminal paper printing, the board industry is in a recession, and the market of hexanolenediamine is weak. In the middle and late May, the terminal industry began to recover. In June, the main enterprises of the paper industry focused on the purchase of chitosan, and the hydrogen peroxide market continued to rise.

Terminal industry warms up the rigid demand to support the continuous strengthening of hydrogen peroxide

In June, the price of corrugated paper began to rise for two consecutive days. Driven by the upward trend of waste paper market, the price of corrugated paper packaging paper in Dongguan, Chongqing and other multi bases of Jiulong paper industry increased by 50 yuan / ton. In the following week, Liwen, Shanying and Liansheng rose strongly, and small and medium-sized paper enterprises continued to increase by 50-80 yuan / ton. On the 8th, the factory price of corrugated paper increased by 50-100 yuan / ton again, and then small and medium-sized paper enterprises increased by 50-80 yuan / ton Paper companies continue to rise 50-100 yuan / ton. In 20 days, the corrugated paper market has completed three rounds of growth, with a maximum increase of 200 yuan / ton.

According to the data monitoring of the business association, the price of caprolactam rose after the May 1st movement. As of June 18, the price of caprolactam had risen by more than 20%. Supported by the price of caprolactam, the price of hydrogen peroxide rose in June. In addition, the hydrogen peroxide manufacturer’s parking maintenance, tight supply, caprolactam and paper market soared, the manufacturer started the stock market one after another, the purchase volume of hydrogen peroxide increased, and the price rose step by step.

Tight supply of hydrogen peroxide continues to rise

In the middle and last ten days of June, during the shutdown and overhaul of some hydrogen peroxide plants, Hangzhou Mingxin hydrogen peroxide Co., Ltd. stopped for overhaul on the 16th, and Binhua will also stop for overhaul at the end of the month. Hydrogen peroxide terminal caprolactam manufacturers, sulfur dioxide urea customers, the paper industry purchase hydrogen peroxide orders increase, supply is tight, hydrogen peroxide price rising, rising for three consecutive weeks, weekly increase in 50-100 yuan / ton, as of 18 days, the average price of hydrogen peroxide Market is more than 900 yuan / ton, up more than 18%.

Li Bing, an analyst of hydrogen peroxide in business club, thinks that: the end caprolactam, paper market are rising one after another, the rigid demand for hydrogen peroxide is supported, and some hydrogen peroxide manufacturers stop for maintenance, so the price of hydrogen peroxide is easy to rise and hard to fall in a short period of time.

1、 Price trend

According to the data in the bulk list of business associations, the price of aniline rose slightly on Wednesday. On June 5, the price of aniline in Shandong Province was 4400-4490 yuan / ton, and that in East China was 4500-4820 yuan / ton. On June 12, the price of aniline in Shandong Province was 4500-4590 yuan / ton, and that in East China was 4600-4820 yuan / ton, up 2.26% or 100 yuan / ton from last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

In terms of cost, Sinopec’s price of pure benzene was adjusted again this week, with a total increase of 200 yuan / ton. The price difference between the inside and outside of the market was narrowed, and the market bottom supported the strengthening. This week, pure benzene port inventory still rose, but the increase decreased. In the week, the price of pure benzene strengthened, but the downstream market was weak, and the actual market turnover was weak.

The price of nitric acid rebounded slightly. On June 12, the production price in East China was 1450 yuan / ton, 1.16% higher than last week.

Most aniline enterprises have low operating load, and Lianheng MDI device is restarted, which supports the demand for aniline to some extent. The inventory of aniline enterprises is released, and the price rises slightly.

3、 Future expectation

In the next week, the downstream styrene with the largest demand for pure benzene is bad news, and there are still many ships arriving at Hong Kong. The rise of styrene is weak, and the mentality of pure benzene industry is weak. It is expected that the trend of pure benzene will slightly decrease.

The rising trend of cost is slowing down, while the downstream demand is still low, and it is expected that the price of aniline will remain stable in the short term.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, at the beginning of the week, the price of domestic industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate was 4262.50 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, the price of domestic industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate was 4212.50 yuan / ton, down 1.17%. The current price is down 2.32% month on month, and the current price is down 2.32% year on year.

This week, the domestic potassium nitrate declined slightly, the market trading atmosphere was relatively light, the demand was poor, the actual single was less, and the potassium nitrate market fell. According to the statistics of the business agency: this week, the domestic mainstream potassium nitrate manufacturers quoted 4000-4400 yuan / ton (the quotation is only for reference), and the quotation varies according to the purchase situation.

This week, the quotation of the mainstream manufacturers of potassium chloride was temporarily stable, and the market of potassium chloride faced three major pressures, namely, the large stock in Hong Kong, weak demand and downward international prices. Therefore, the main contradiction in the current market is that supply exceeds demand. Limited support for potassium nitrate.

According to the potassium nitrate analyst of the business agency, the overall trend of domestic potassium fertilizer market is weak in the near future, and the total supply is at a high level. Subsequent prices are mainly affected by inventory. It is expected that the market of potassium nitrate Market will mainly fall in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the large scale list of business agencies, the domestic toluene market rose slightly this week. As of Friday, the average domestic price was about 3660 yuan / ton, up 0.55% on last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

At present, the market demand has improved, the transaction is general, and the port inventory is on the high side. Influenced by the overall trend of fluctuating rise of international crude oil this week, the domestic toluene price rose slightly this week. At present, the mainstream price in East China is around 3620 yuan / ton.

Upstream, crude oil, data released this week show that OPEC + actively implemented the production reduction agreement in May, and Saudi Arabia and Russia have reached a preliminary agreement to extend the current record production reduction by one month, which, combined with the global economic restart, boosted the recovery of demand and boosted the international oil price this week. As of early Friday morning, spot Brent rose 9.69%, Brent futures rose 10.28%, WTI futures rose 5.25%, and Dubai futures rose 14.49%.

On the downstream side, TDI saw a slight increase in the market. At present, the price of domestic goods delivered with tickets is 10900-11300 yuan / ton, and that of Shanghai goods delivered with tickets is 11200-11500 yuan / ton. It is expected that the short-term TDI market will maintain a stable trend and pay close attention to the plant’s later information guidance and the actual market trading situation. In PX market, this week, the price of domestic Sinopec’s enterprises is about 4100 yuan / ton, and the latest price on the outside market is about 486 US dollars / ton for FOB South Korea and 506 US dollars / ton for CFR China. It is expected that the market price of PX will follow the rise in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

Toluene analyst of business and chemical branch thinks: in the short term, we can see the supply cost, OPEC + production reduction, total number of us oil drilling and EIA inventory. In the medium term, we can see the demand side, the economic and trade situation between China and the United States, the progress of economic restart in Europe and the United States, and the progress of industrial chain recovery. Next week, we will focus on the trend of crude oil. Overall, it is expected that the price of toluene in the domestic market will be adjusted next week.

1、 Price trend

This week, the comprehensive price of potassium chloride was temporarily stable. This week, the average price of the mainstream comprehensive quotation of potassium chloride was 1850.00 yuan / ton, down 21.28% year on year compared with the same period last year. Overall, this week’s potassium chloride market was temporarily stable, with the potassium chloride commodity index at 58.73 on June 5.

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of mainstream potassium chloride manufacturers this week is temporarily stable: the weekly ex factory quotation of Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride is 1820 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; the weekend distribution quotation of Anhui Badu potassium chloride is 1880 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week. This week, the actual transaction in the potassium chloride market is not good. On the whole, the main contradiction in the market is that the supply exceeds the demand, the trading atmosphere is cold, the downstream procurement is just in demand, the overall inventory is low, the purchasing market momentum is low, and the domestic potassium chloride market is stable.

3、 Future forecast

In the middle of June, the overall trend of potassium chloride market or low consolidation dominated. The market of potassium chloride is faced with three major pressures, namely, large stock, weak demand and downward international prices. Therefore, the main contradiction in the current market is that supply exceeds demand. According to analysts of KCl in business association, the short-term market of KCl is dominated by low consolidation under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.

According to the monitoring of bulk data of business agency, due to the prominent impact of supply and demand, the domestic acetic acid market continued to decline. At the beginning of this week (6.1), the average price of acetic acid in East China was about 2416 yuan / ton. At the end of this week (6.5), the average price fell to 2240 yuan / ton, down 7.31% in the week. At present, the quotation in Henan is about 2000-2100 yuan / ton; in Shandong, about 2200-2300 yuan / ton; in Hebei, about 2250-2300 yuan / ton; in Shaanxi, about 2000 yuan / ton; in Jiangsu, about 2150-2250 yuan / ton; in Zhejiang, about 2250-2350 yuan / ton; in South China, about 2250-2350 yuan / ton.

Production trends of plant capacity (10000 tons / year)

Normal production of Yankuang Guotai 110

Hualu Hengsheng 50 normal production

About 80% of BP 50 in Yangzi

Celanese 120 recovered to about 70%

Jiangsu Thorpe 120 started construction to about 80%

Hebei Jiantao 50 normal production

Tianjin Bohua 35 normal production

Henan Shunda 40 normal production

About 80% of Henan Longyu 50

Henan Yima 25 parking

Shaanxi extends maintenance for one month from May 6, 2015

Shanghai Huayi 70.5.23 parking and maintenance for about 20 days

About 80% of Anhui Huayi construction started

Dalian Hengli 35 normal production

 
The main reason for the sharp decline of domestic acetic acid price this week is that the market shows a situation of supply exceeding demand. At the end of May, the overhaul of Huadong Huabei plant was completed, and production gradually resumed. As of this week, Hebei Jiantao’s 500000 T / a plant has been in normal production, Jiangsu Thorpe’s 1.2 million T / a plant has been restored to 80%, and the industry’s overall operating rate has been restored to 60% – 70%. The spot supply in the market has increased significantly, while the downstream market is still dominated by the digestion of early-stage contracts, with few new orders In the early stage, the traders copied the bottom and actively sold the stocks. In order to prevent the excessive price of stocks in the later stage, the price of acetic acid fell passively.

Secondly, the long-term downturn in cost and demand is also an important factor affecting the decline of acetic acid price. The low price of methanol market has been adjusted, and the enterprise has recovered after the completion of maintenance. In addition to the high port inventory, the pressure on the supply side of methanol market has increased dramatically. However, at present, methanol has been at a historical low level, some enterprises are on the edge of loss, with strong intention to hold prices, and limited space for reduction. At present, the average price of Shandong is about 1612 yuan / ton. Domestic acetate, vinyl acetate and other industries are close to the cost line after continuous weakness. They are weak and stable in the week. The industry is mainly wait-and-see. The downstream demand is still sluggish and the transaction atmosphere is light.

Affected by the weak operation of methanol, the market performance of international acetic acid market continues to be depressed. At present, the Asian acetic acid market is 265-320 USD / ton, the North American market is about 450 USD / ton, and the European market is about 550 EUR / ton

According to the acetic acid analyst of business association, at present, the domestic acetic acid production enterprises start smoothly, the market spot supply is sufficient, the situation of low downstream demand is weak and hard to change, the situation of supply exceeding demand in the industry is increasingly prominent, and the negative factors are obvious. With the accumulation of inventory, the behavior of bidding among enterprises is obvious, and it is expected that the domestic acetic acid market will be dominated by weak operation in a short time.

1、 Price trend

The domestic toluene market rebounded slightly this week, with the average domestic price of about 3640 yuan / ton as of Friday, up 1.68% on last week, according to the data of the business club’s large list.

2、 Analysis and comment

1. Product: at present, the market demand has improved, and the transaction is fair. This week, the international crude oil overall shows a small fluctuation trend. Affected by this, the domestic xylene price rose slightly this week. At present, the mainstream price in East China is around 3600 yuan / ton.

2. Industrial chain:

Upstream, in terms of crude oil, with the new opening of the main economic weight and the initial signs of rising gasoline demand in the United States, Russia indicated its willingness to extend the production reduction. However, the unexpected increase in U.S. crude oil inventory announced this week, as well as investors’ concerns about the tension in Global trade relations, led to the overall trend of international crude oil shocks this week. At present, the international oil price shows signs of resistance near its high in the past two months, so as to prevent the trend of fluctuation and fall that may occur at any time. As of early Friday morning, spot Brent rose 1.28%, Brent futures slightly fell 0.14%, WTI futures rose 2.44%, and Dubai futures rose 2%.

On the downstream side, TDI saw a slight increase in the market. At present, 10800-11000 yuan / ton is the reference for domestic delivery of goods with tickets, 11300-11500 yuan / ton is the reference for Shanghai delivery of goods with tickets. It is expected that the short-term TDI market will maintain a stable trend and pay close attention to the plant’s later information guidance and the actual market trading situation. In PX market, this week, the price of domestic Sinopec’s enterprises is about 4100 yuan / ton, and the latest price on the outside market is about $456 / ton for FOB South Korea and $476 / ton for CFR China. It is expected that the market price of PX will be stable in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

Toluene analyst of business and chemical branch thinks: in the short term, we can see the supply cost, OPEC + production reduction, total number of us oil drilling and EIA inventory. In the medium term, we can see the demand side, the economic and trade situation between China and the United States, the progress of economic restart in Europe and the United States, and the progress of industrial chain recovery. Next week, we will focus on the trend of crude oil. Overall, it is expected that the price of toluene in the domestic market will be adjusted next week.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the weak and stable operation of domestic soda ash this week is mainly. The average domestic market price from the beginning of the week to the end of the week in East China is about 1363.33 yuan / ton. On April 25, the light soda ash commodity index was 75.04, flat with yesterday, down 36.33% from 117.86 (2017-11-21), the highest point in the cycle, and up 18.83% from 63.15, the lowest point on November 18, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: this week, domestic soda price is mainly weak and stable. The market of soda ash in East China is stable with light market price of about 1200-1380 yuan / ton for light soda ash and 1300-1400 yuan / ton for heavy soda ash. It is expected that the price of soda ash will be weak in the short term. The consolidation market of soda ash in Central China is running. The mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1150-1250 yuan / ton, and the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash is 1250-1350 yuan / ton. The downstream demand is poor. It is expected that the price of soda ash will be more consolidated in the short term. The market price of soda ash consolidation in North China is running. The mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1300-1450 yuan / ton, and the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash is 1450-1600 yuan / ton. The market transaction is general. It is expected that the price of soda ash will be more consolidated in the short term. The average operating rate of domestic soda ash manufacturers is about 80%.

In terms of demand: the domestic soda ash market is in overall consolidation operation, and the phenomenon of supply exceeding demand continues. The total information of the industry is still more than 1.6 million. The overall market atmosphere of soda ash is not good, and the downstream market transaction follow-up is weak. In recent years, the maintenance and reduction of domestic soda enterprises have led to the decrease of soda output and inventory. However, the overall change of the demand side is not big. Due to the impact of the environment, the downstream procurement is not hot, and the form of oversupply is still severe. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 20th week of 2020 (5.18-5.22), there are two kinds of commodities rising and falling in the price list of chlor alkali industry, two kinds of commodities falling and one kind of commodities rising and falling to 0. The main commodities rising were PVC (3.34%), calcium carbide (0.68%); the main commodities falling were light soda ash (- 3.75%), caustic soda (- 1.03%). This week’s average was – 0.15%.

3、 Future forecast

According to the soda ash analyst of business association, the domestic soda ash market atmosphere is flat and the transaction is general, and the overall pressure on enterprise inventory is still large. Although the manufacturer plans to reduce the inventory of parking and maintenance, the overall transaction is still average, but considering that the price of soda ash is near the cost line, it is comprehensively expected that the weak and stable operation of soda ash will be the main one in the short term.