According to the monitoring of the business society, the coking coal market in North China was about 1541.67 yuan / ton on February 1, and the average price of coking coal market in North China was 1581.67 yuan / ton on February 28, with a slight increase of 2.59%, up 6.15% over the same period last year. The price of coking coal was relatively strong at the beginning of February, and stabilized temporarily from the middle to the end of the month.

On February 28, the coking coal commodity index was 116.73, unchanged from yesterday, down 3.95% from the highest point 121.53 in the cycle (March 12, 2019), and up 159.92% from the lowest point 44.91 on January 28, 2016. (Note: period refers to from September 1, 2012 to now)

According to the business community, on the supply side, large state-owned enterprises have normal production during the Spring Festival, and the supply side is guaranteed. There are many manufacturers in accordance with the implementation of early orders, the overall price presents a stable situation. After the festival, the supply of coal mines basically recovered, and the supply side as a whole was obviously loose compared with previous years. In order to do a good job of epidemic prevention and control, during the holidays, large coal mines generally do not have holidays for normal production. At the same time, most of the mines have fewer days off, enterprises do not stop work, or some enterprises return to work early, some stocks are on the high side, enterprises are not smooth in shipment, and some coal mines are under shipment pressure. Therefore, coal enterprises are willing to reduce the price of shipment.

Demand: on the downstream side, the sales and shipment of coking enterprises are good before the festival, and the inventory of coking enterprises remains low. The new production capacity of coking enterprises is gradually releasing. According to the coke inventory of steel plants, some steel plants have not reached the reasonable inventory before the festival, and there are still plans to replenish the warehouse in the near future. Some of the steel plants that have been put into maintenance are scheduled to resume production about one year later. The overall supply of coke is still tight, the price of coke has reached a higher level, the profit of coking enterprises is higher, and the profit in some areas has reached 1000 yuan / ton, which is the highest profit in the past decade. On the spot market after the festival: at the end of last month, affected by the rain and snow weather traffic control in Shanxi and the environmental protection control in Hebei, the coke inventory in these two regions had a significant rebound, and the inventory in the factory increased significantly. The price of coke is relatively high, and the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream steel plants has slowed down significantly. Recently, they are at a reasonable inventory level. After the first round of increase and decrease was implemented last week, some steel plants started the second round of increase and decrease. At present, coking enterprises have not responded. In the current situation of slightly loose supply of finished coke, it is expected that the overall coke market will be weak in the near future.

According to coking coal analysts of business society, the price of coke is relatively high, and the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream steel plants is obviously slowing down, and they are at a reasonable inventory level in the near future. At present, the overall supply of coke is slightly loose, and the stock of raw materials before the festival is relatively loose. The demand for coking coal procurement is slowing down, mainly to digest inventory. The continuous reduction of coke price has depressed the enthusiasm of coke enterprises for purchasing high price raw coal. Moreover, the overall inventory of coking coal is relatively loose. It is expected that there may be downward space for coking coal in March, depending on the downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the business news agency’s block data list, the average price of domestic phosphoric acid on February 26 was 5150 yuan / ton, up 1.98% from the beginning of the week, up 1.98% from the beginning of the week, and down 4.04% from the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

In the first week after the festival, the price of phosphoric acid was stable for the time being. Watch the market carefully. In this week, the price of raw material yellow phosphorus rose steadily, and the industry basically returned to the market. Under the mentality of buying up but not buying down in the downstream, the heat of inquiry increased, and just needed replenishment after the festival, the price of phosphoric acid rose slightly. According to the monitoring of the business agency, as of February 26, the quotation in Sichuan was 4800-5500 yuan / ton, that in Yunnan was 5100 yuan / ton, that in Beijing was 4700 yuan / ton, that in Hubei was 5000-5400 yuan / ton, that in Tianjin was 5600 yuan / ton, and that in Guangxi was 5200-5400 yuan / ton. The prices in various regions rose steadily.

Regional ﹣ product specification ﹣ date ﹣ price (yuan / ton)

Sichuan Province: 85% industrial grade – 4800-5500

In Hubei Province, ﹣ phosphoric acid content: 85% industrial grade ﹣ 5000-5400

Yunnan Province: 85% industrial grade 5100

The content of ﹣ 3 ﹣ phosphate in Guangxi: 85% industrial grade ﹣ 5200-5400

Beijing Tianjin area: 85% industrial grade – 4700-5600

Fujian Province: 85% industrial grade

This week, the price of yellow phosphorus rose, yellow phosphorus spot is relatively tight, the main manufacturers send early orders, downstream appropriate procurement. Up to now, the mainstream price of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 17000 yuan / ton; the mainstream price in Sichuan is about 17000 yuan / ton; the mainstream price in Guizhou is about 17000 yuan / ton. At present, the spot of yellow phosphorus is tight, and the downstream is suitable for purchasing. In addition, the downstream pesticide market is up, boosting the price of yellow phosphorus. It is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus will rise steadily in the short term.

The domestic phosphate ore market has maintained a stable operation for the time being. At present, most of the sites are mainly on the lookout, and the overall start-up is low. The recovery of downstream demand is relatively slow. The parking and maintenance of downstream enterprises are increasing before the festival, and the construction is still in progress after the festival. At present, the trading atmosphere of the phosphate ore market is general, and the market price basically maintains the previous market. On February 23, the price of 28% low-grade phosphate rock in Guangxi was around 300-330 yuan / ton. Compared with a week ago, the price fluctuated little, the market atmosphere was general, and the orders were mainly in the early stage of delivery.

3、 Future forecast

Phosphoric acid analysts from chemical branch of business society believe that at present, raw material prices are rising steadily, phosphoric acid enterprises are basically returning to the market this week, with a slight increase in offer. A few enterprises are still holding steady and wait-and-see. It is expected that the phosphoric acid market will be stable in the short term, and with the recovery of terminal demand in the future, the price is expected to rise.

1、 Polyoxymethylene market price trend chart

Price curve of paraformaldehyde

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the average price of paraformaldehyde this week is 6533 yuan / ton, and the quotation is temporarily stable.

2、 Market analysis

On February 22, Shandong formaldehyde Chemical Industry Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 30000 tons of polyoxymethylene, offered 6300 yuan / ton of Polyoxymethylene (96) ex factory with tax, an increase of 300 yuan / ton compared with the last time. Linyi Shengyang Chemical Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 9000 tons of polyoxymethylene, Polyoxymethylene (96) ex factory price including tax 6300 yuan / ton, the price is the same as last time. Zibo Qixing Chemical Technology Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 10000 tons of polyoxymethylene, Polyoxymethylene (96) ex factory price including tax 7000 yuan / ton, the price is the same as last time. After the Spring Festival, enterprises have resumed work one after another, and the downstream market demand is better. Individual enterprises have raised their quotations.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average price of methanol producers in Shandong was 2270 yuan / ton on February 22, and 2277 yuan / ton on February 25, with a price increase of 0.33%.

3、 Future forecast

Business community polyoxymethylene analysts expect polyoxymethylene or consolidation based.

1、 Price trend

Domestic EPS market continues to rise, with 10800-11100 yuan / ton of common materials and 11100-11400 yuan / ton of fuel in Jiangsu Province. The continuous rise of styrene has driven the EPS market to strengthen, and the merchants are reluctant to sell at low prices, but the market resistance to high prices is rising, and the overall transaction is just needed.

2、 Market analysis

Ex factory: the ex factory price of Zhongshan Taida EPS rose, the acceptance delivery price of ordinary materials was 11400 yuan / ton, the acceptance delivery price of fuel was 11700 yuan / ton, and the firm offer was negotiated.

3、 Future forecast

It is expected that the domestic EPS price will be stronger in the short term.

After the soaring price at the end of last year, the domestic acrylonitrile market has fluctuated slightly since the beginning of 2021. Before the deadline, the price of acrylonitrile in East China closed at 12200 yuan / ton, with an increase of 0.4% during the year, basically in line with the price at the beginning of the year. In the near future, the maintenance of acrylonitrile plant is not much, and the downstream demand is relatively stable. In the long run, with the gradual increase of supply, the overall pressure of acrylonitrile industry is large.

In recent years, the domestic acrylonitrile production capacity has been steadily improved. According to statistics, in June 2020, the 260000 T / a acrylonitrile plant of Zhejiang Petrochemical Company was put into operation, making the total domestic acrylonitrile production capacity reach about 2600000 T / A. In 2021, the acrylonitrile industry will enter into the peak of new unit production. The units such as keluer phase II 130000t / A, sipang phase III 260000t / A and Zhejiang Petrochemical phase II 260000t / a are planned to be put into production within this year. By then, the market supply will be very sufficient.

With the continuous growth of domestic production capacity, the trade flow of acrylonitrile has changed to a certain extent. Customs data show that the total domestic import of acrylonitrile in 2020 is 306600 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.6%, and the overall performance is still relatively stable. As most of the acrylonitrile importers are South Korean and Taiwan plastic enterprises such as Zhenjiang Qimei and Formosa Plastics, which are equipped with corresponding raw material plants in the local area, this kind of import is mainly long-term, and the change is expected to be small. It is noteworthy that the export volume of acrylonitrile will further increase in 2020. According to statistics, the total export volume in 2020 will be 72800 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 69.8%. The main export destinations are South Korea, India, Thailand and Turkey. In just a few years, the export volume of acrylonitrile industry has been greatly increased. It is reported that in 2020, Ineos’s 280000t / a acrylonitrile plant in hill sands, UK, will be shut down permanently. In addition to the increase of domestic production capacity, promoting export has become an inevitable development trend of domestic acrylonitrile industry.

There are also two points in the development of acrylonitrile downstream industry. Acrylonitrile is mainly used in the production of ABS, acrylic fiber, acrylamide and other products. ABS is still the main growth point of acrylonitrile demand in the future. In 2021, a total of 1.4 million T / a ABS production capacity will be put into operation, including Guangxi Changke 150000 T / A, Taihua Xingye 250000 T / A and Zhangzhou Qimei 450000 T / A. On the other hand, the capacity of downstream acrylic fiber has not increased in recent years, and the industry lacks high value-added and differentiated products, which are greatly affected by polyester and viscose products. In recent years, other downstream products of acrylonitrile have gradually attracted people’s attention. In terms of carbon fiber, in January this year, Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Co., Ltd. started the construction of 12000t / a 48K large tow carbon fiber, and Jinggong technology completed the localization of the first 1000 ton carbon fiber production line, which indicates that the domestic carbon fiber industry is gradually mature and is expected to become a new dark horse in the downstream of acrylonitrile. At the same time, the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020 makes the demand for medical gloves surge, and the nitrile latex industry also develops greatly. However, due to the small overall production capacity, the contribution to the demand for acrylonitrile is not large.

Overall, the recent strong trend of international crude oil, acrylonitrile raw material is good, driving acrylonitrile up slightly in the short term. In the long run, domestic acrylonitrile production capacity will increase significantly, and the demand from ABS, carbon fiber and nitrile rubber latex is expected to increase in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business news agency’s block list, the prices of most energy and chemical products have soared, and the price of aniline has increased by nearly 20%. On February 9, the price of aniline in Shandong was 8100-8200 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing was 8400-8600 yuan / ton. On February 21, the price of aniline in Shandong was 9600-9700 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing was 9700-9900 yuan / ton. The average price increased by 1500 yuan / ton, or 18.22%, 23.21% higher than that at the beginning of the month, and 46% higher than that at the same period of last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

In terms of cost, during the Spring Festival, severe cold weather swept the energy and chemical industry in the United States, and crude oil and pure benzene rose sharply, supporting the domestic price of pure benzene to rise; downstream styrene also rose, boosting the price of pure benzene. Domestic pure benzene enterprises received good news, good shipment during the Spring Festival, price push up. From February 10 to February 21, Sinopec’s listed price of pure benzene increased by 750 yuan / ton to 6150 yuan / ton. On Sunday (February 21), the price of pure benzene was 6100-6350 yuan / ton (average price was 6150 yuan / ton), with an average price increase of 810 yuan / ton or 15.17% compared with that before the festival.

This week, the price of nitric acid remained stable compared with that before the festival. On Saturday (February 20), the production price of nitric acid in East China was 2000 yuan / ton. Compared with the beginning of the month, the price decreased by 16.67 yuan / ton, or 0.83%; compared with the same period last year, the price increased by 26.32%.

During the Spring Festival, the international crude oil rose, the price of pure benzene rose sharply, supported by the cost side, and the price of aniline rose. According to the news during the Spring Festival, Jinling’s 200000 t / a aniline plant is expected to be overhauled in March. Affected by the news, the downstream stock is prepared in advance, and the inventory of aniline enterprises is released rapidly, and the rising trend continues after the festival.

3、 Future expectation

In terms of cost, some new units are expected to be put into production, pure benzene supply is expected to be tightened, and the price still has room to go up. However, the trend of pure benzene is expected to moderate with the recovery of supply of foreign units. Continue to pay attention to the downstream procurement situation, domestic and foreign trends of pure benzene plants, crude oil, external market and styrene trend, etc.

There is still room for cost increase; Jinling aniline plant is expected to be overhauled, and market supply is expected to decrease; downstream MDI supply is tight, plant load is high, and demand support is strong. Aniline prices or continue to rise, is expected to break million! Continue to pay attention to the trend of raw material, the change of market supply and demand, the operation and maintenance of aniline plant.

According to February 18 Investing.com A year ago, novel coronavirus pneumonia outbreak in the world, and the global oil demand situation is still unclear. However, some aspects of the oil market are now better understood. At present, it is crucial to break the impact of winter cold weather on oil production and refining in Texas, pay attention to the decisions that OPEC + may make at the meeting in two weeks, the reasons for the rise of U.S. oil prices and future oil demand.

First, the US oil supply was temporarily suspended.

Low temperatures in Texas led to a sharp drop in US crude oil production this week. According to the latest information, more than 4 million barrels per day of oil production capacity was forced to be interrupted, accounting for about 40% of the total U.S. oil production capacity. You know, under normal circumstances, Texas usually has 4.6 million barrels of oil per day.

By contrast, in October last year, in response to Hurricane Delta, producers shut down about 92% of crude oil production in the Gulf of Mexico, or 1.68 million barrels per day. The temperature should improve in the near future, and the capacity interruption may last until next week, but if large-scale maintenance is needed, some capacity may be suspended for a longer time.

Most of the refining capacity in the Gulf of Mexico has been shut down due to similar climatic factors. At the beginning of this week, with the news that a large-scale shutdown may be coming and the oil price rising, the price of West Texas Intermediate oil finally broke through the $60 per barrel mark.

Prices rose another 1% on Wednesday as more information about the disruption became clear, but they will fall back as exploration and refining operations resume. Gasoline prices are also rising in the United States as refineries shut down. Gasoline prices in the Midwest, for example, rose about $0.05 a gallon on Wednesday.

Second, the decision of OPEC + on the production reduction agreement.

OPEC + member states are preparing to hold a meeting in two weeks and have begun to state their position to the media. According to the Wall Street Journal, Saudi Arabia will reduce its oil production by an additional 1 million barrels a day, which will last until the end of March.

Saudi Arabia will resume its supply quotas in April. This is Saudi Arabia’s position when it announced “additional production cuts” in January, so this message confirms that Saudi Arabia’s policy has not changed in the past few weeks.

On the other hand, OPEC + authorized Russia to increase production in February and March, but Russia has been unable to increase production due to unusually cold weather. Russia’s average production in February was 10.115 million B / D, down about 44000 B / D from January. However, higher temperatures in March may increase Russia’s oil production.

At the meeting on March 4, OPEC + will decide whether to continue to produce oil at its current level in April (Saudi Arabia will reduce production by an additional 1 million B / D), or to increase production due to higher oil prices. Russia said it believed the oil market was balanced, while Saudi Arabia expressed more cautious and moderate optimism about the current situation.

Third, fuel prices in the United States have risen.

Over the past month, the average price of a gallon of gasoline has risen by nearly $0.20, raising concerns that U.S. gasoline consumer prices will return to the previous high oil prices. The rise in gasoline prices may be related to the market tension caused by the country’s early administrative orders on oil and gas leasing and oil transportation.

However, these executive orders have not yet affected the fundamentals. The price rise is largely due to the tightening of fundamental factors unrelated to these policies.

Fourth, oil demand is still uncertain.

Short term oil demand in the US and Europe remains a big problem. Unless people are allowed to move around freely, children are allowed to return to school, and more workers are allowed to return to the office, gasoline consumption will not return to its previous level.

Many European countries have extended the blockade order to March or April, but in some countries, the legislature or the court is overturning the executive’s decision. In the United States, it’s not clear. Many school districts in the United States have not resumed full-time schooling, so many parents cannot leave home to return to work. It is hoped that full-time education will be restored in the autumn, but in the current situation, it is difficult to achieve.

In the long run, oil demand outside Europe and Asia is expected to grow. Traders should not forget that even if the short-term demand situation is questionable, the long-term demand situation can be determined.

1、 Domestic sodium pyrosulfite price trend chart

According to the monitoring of business news agency, the domestic price of sodium pyrosulfite was adjusted weakly this week. The average price of industrial sodium pyrosulfite at the beginning of the week was 1683.33 yuan / ton, and the average price at the end of the week was 1633.33 yuan / ton, a slight drop of 2.97%.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the overall market performance of sodium pyrosulfite was general. The market price range of industrial grade sodium pyrosulfite was 1450-1750 yuan / ton, and most of the prices were around 1600 yuan / ton. Near the Spring Festival holiday, the procurement of downstream trade entities basically ended, and the market transaction was relatively light. Affected by the continuous cost suppression and shipping pressure, some enterprises slightly reduced the ex factory price, while the domestic market price of sodium pyrosulfite was slightly weakened. (the above prices are quoted by domestic mainstream enterprises, and some enterprises not quoted are not within their scope. The prices are for reference only and have nothing to do with the final pricing of manufacturers. For details, please contact each manufacturer for consultation).

This week, the domestic soda price rose slightly by 0.74%, the sulfur price rose slightly by 2.8%, the raw material cost bottomed out and rebounded, and the processing cost of sodium pyrosulfite rose slightly, which will play a certain support for the future market price of sodium pyrosulfite.

3、 Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the price recovery of upstream products will form a certain support for the domestic market price of sodium pyrosulfite, and the domestic market price of sodium pyrosulfite is expected to rise slightly after the Spring Festival.

1、 Price trend

The factory price of isooctanol rose in Shandong this week. This week, the average price of isooctanol in Shandong Province rose from 10333.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 10916.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 5.65%, 60.54% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. Overall, the market of ISO octanol rose this week, with the commodity index of ISO octanol at 80.39 on February 5.

2、 Market analysis

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the factory quotation of Shandong’s mainstream ISO octanol manufacturers rose this week: Jianlan chemical’s quotation of ISO octanol this weekend was 10900 yuan / ton, up 550 yuan / ton compared with that at the beginning of the week. Lihuayi quoted 10950 yuan / ton of isooctanol this weekend, up 700 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Hualu Hengsheng quoted 10900 yuan / ton of isooctanol this week, up 400 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week.

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chain, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of octanol was temporarily stable this week, with the quoted price of 7068.18 yuan / ton, up 6.58% over the same period last year. The high price of raw materials in the upstream market, affected by the supply and demand side, had a positive impact on the price of octanol.

Octanol downstream market, DOP factory price rose slightly this week. DOP quotation increased from 9575.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 10050.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 4.96%, 38.62% over the same period of last year. The price of downstream DOP rose, the enthusiasm of downstream customers to purchase octanol increased, the demand for octanol was better, and the future market operators mostly watched the trend of DOP.

3、 Future forecast

In the middle of February, the market trend of Shandong octanol may rise slightly. The upstream propylene market was consolidated at a high level, the raw material support was strong, the downstream DOP market rose slightly, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was enhanced, and the octanol supply was normal. Business community octanol analysts believe that: in mid February, under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects of octanol market in Shandong, octanol market may rise slightly.

Domestic BDO spot supply is tight and the market is strong. According to the sample data monitored by the business community, as of February 5, the average price of domestic BDO producers was 15575 yuan / ton, with a month on month rise of 18.67%, up 57.71% year on year.

Some enterprises announced new settlement price and listing price:

Enterprise, settlement in January (bulk water delivered), listing in February (bulk water delivered)

Xinjiang Meike Chemical Co., Ltd. $12860 / T in East China, $12960 / T in South China, and $15400 / T in East China and $15600 / T in South China

Xinjiang Lanshan Tunhe Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. $12800 / T East China, $13000 / T South China (bulk water delivery), $14300 / T East China, and $14500 / T South China (bulk water delivery)

The domestic BDO market is tight and the price is rising. Manufacturers mainly delivered orders, spot goods were in short supply, and the high level of bidding was boosted, and the focus of negotiation continued to rise. The main factories announced that they were listed in February, with a sharp increase of 1000-2300 yuan / ton compared with January, showing obvious intention to support the market.

In terms of devices, Dongyuan finished maintenance, Shanhua replaced the catalysts at the end of January, and great wall energy replaced the catalysts in turn from February 1. The overall supply decreased, and favorable support remained.

Although next week will enter the Spring Festival holiday, but the main customers in the downstream are more “holiday without work stoppage”, and the digestion of raw materials is considerable; while other small customers in the downstream are more, stock is not much, and continue to go into the market to catch up and replenish positions may be in the majority. Therefore, the demand side support is acceptable. BDO business analysts expect that the domestic BDO market in the short term high volatility.