This week, the lead market (12.31-1.7) “V” trend. The average price of the domestic market was 15256.25 yuan / ton last weekend and 15331.25 yuan / ton this weekend, with a weekly increase of 0.49%.

The commodity price K-bar chart uses the concept of K-line of price trend to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes of K-bar chart. Red means: rising; Green means: falling; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall.

In terms of futures, affected by the new year’s Day holiday at the beginning of this week, the price was stable. Affected by the expected interest rate increase of the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, the metal trend was generally under pressure, and Lun lead operated weakly. Supported by the low level of LME lead inventory, it began to rebound over the weekend. Shanghai lead showed a “V” trend as a whole this week, falling from a high on Wednesday and rebounding from a low on Friday, with a single day increase of more than 2%.

In terms of spot market, the trend this week is basically consistent with that of Shanghai lead. The domestic mainstream quotation range is 15000-15450 yuan / ton. The price fluctuates greatly, the downstream consumption is general, and most of them are wait-and-see. In terms of supply, the start-up of primary lead is slightly stable and the supply is acceptable. Near the New Year holiday, downstream battery enterprises have a certain demand for goods preparation, and are expected to consume the current inventory.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the first week of 2022 (1.3-1.7), there are 15 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the non-ferrous sector, including 5 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 22.7% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were neodymium oxide (8.11%), magnesium (7.14%) and metal neodymium (6.14%). There were 6 commodities with month on month decline, and the top 3 products were silver (- 3.91%), metallic silicon (- 1.08%) and gold (- 1.06%). Both rose or fell by 2.04% this week.

Overall, the fundamental changes of lead market are limited, and the downstream procurement is cautious, most of which are based on demand. Under the environment of weak supply and demand, the market outlook is dominated by shock. When the downstream preparation is completed, the lead ingot inventory will pick up, and the price may have downward space.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the bulk list of business society, bromine prices rose slightly this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 53142.86 yuan / ton, and the average market price on Friday was 53714.29 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 1.08%. On January 9, the bromine commodity index was 188.47, unchanged from yesterday, down 23.13% from the highest point 245.18 in the cycle (2021-10-27), and up 219.87% from the lowest point 58.92 on October 29, 2014. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Market analysis

At present, the domestic bromine price is rising slightly. At present, the mainstream price of Shandong enterprises is about 50000-57000 yuan / ton. The main reason for the rise of bromine price is that domestic bromine enterprises stopped production at the end of December, and the supply of enterprises decreased. Some downstream intermediate enterprises resumed production. In the early stage, because the price was low, now bromine enterprises have low inventory and are reluctant to sell.

In terms of raw materials, the price of sulfur rose this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was about 2026.67 yuan / ton, and the average market price at the weekend was 2060 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 1.64%, 107.38% over the same period last year. There is no inventory pressure for domestic refineries, the downstream sulfuric acid is purchased on demand, the market demand for liquid sulfur is acceptable, the enterprise shipment is smooth, the price of phosphate fertilizer rises, the market demand increases, the progress of winter fertilizer storage market improves, the price of sulfur fixation rises, the downstream market is better, and the sulfur price is adjusted and raised.

Business analysts believe that the price of bromine has risen, but the downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries of bromine are resistant to high price bromine, mainly purchasing on demand, except for individual products. However, many bromine manufacturers offer firm prices. Considering the general needs of the downstream, it is comprehensively expected that the short-term bromine price will rise sharply, and the foundation is not solid. See the downstream market demand for details.

According to the data monitoring of business society, as of January 10, 2022, the average ex factory price of butanone in the domestic market was 12333 yuan / ton. Compared with January 3 (the participating price of butanone was 11533 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 800 yuan / ton, or 6.94%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business society that after the new year’s Day holiday in 2022, the domestic butanone market continued to rise at the end of December. On the first day (January 4) after the holiday, the supply in the butanone field was still tight, and the offer price of butanone factory rose strongly, with a single day increase of about 200-300 yuan / ton. Then the market continued to rise. The spot in the field was scarce and the sentiment of reluctant to sell was strong, The focus of on-site trading is significantly upward, at a high price, and the downstream order receiving capacity is limited. Follow up is cautious, mainly through negotiation on demand, and the actual order transaction is limited. As of January 10, the ex factory price of domestic butanone was around 12000-12500 yuan / ton, and the average price was 12333 yuan / ton. Compared with the fourth day, the average price after the festival was increased by 800 yuan / ton, an increase of nearly 7%.

In terms of index, the butanone commodity index on January 10 was 134.06, unchanged from yesterday, hitting a record high in the cycle, up 165.68% from the lowest point of 50.46 on March 3, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from November 1, 2012 to now)

Upstream, in January, the domestic liquefied gas market ushered in a collective rise. Shandong region generally pushed up sharply, with an obvious range. As of January 10, the price of civil gas in Shandong rose to above 5500 yuan / ton. The good start of the market is mainly driven by international crude oil. The continuous rise of international crude oil after new year’s day has brought obvious support to the liquefied gas market. In addition, Saudi Aramco’s CP price was introduced in January. Although propylene butane fell, the decline was less than expected, which also gave a certain boost to the domestic market. In addition, there is a certain replenishment demand in the downstream after the festival, the enthusiasm for entering the market is high, the manufacturers ship smoothly, the inventory is mostly at a low level, and the prices rise one after another.

Future analysis of butanone

At present, the downstream demand of the domestic butanone market has weakened, and the trading atmosphere shows a stalemate. The butanone datagrapher of the business society believes that in the short term, the butanone market continues to rise, the power is insufficient, the market is mostly subject to narrow fluctuation and adjustment, and more attention needs to be paid to the basic changes in the supply and demand of butanone.

Zinc prices rose slightly this week

According to the data monitoring of business society, the zinc price rose slightly this week, and the zinc market rose slowly. As of January 10, the zinc price was 24370 yuan / ton, up 0.61% from 24222 yuan / ton on January 1 at the beginning of the month. Zinc prices rose slowly, and the zinc market fluctuated and adjusted this week.

Soaring electricity prices in Europe affect zinc supply

Europe has sanctioned Beixi 2, the most important gas transmission pipeline from Russia to Europe. The amount of natural gas supplied by Russia to Europe has decreased. At the same time, Germany will close nearly half of its nuclear power plants by the end of 2021. The electricity price in Europe remains high, and the start-up of zinc smelting in Europe remains low.

There are many downstream production stops in China

Affected by environmental protection, Spring Festival holiday, Winter Olympic Games and other reasons, many zinc plating plants and zinc oxide enterprises in Hebei plan to advance or increase the Spring Festival holiday. Hebei galvanizing plant has been affected by the introduction of relevant policies for the Winter Olympic Games. Most enterprises will start to arrange holidays in January, and may even stop production until March 8, 2022. In addition, at the end of the year, the downstream receiving mood was not high, the downstream demand was weak, many enterprises had almost no orders, traders continued to accumulate warehouses, and the demand for zinc ingots weakened.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that: under the double weak market of supply and demand, it is difficult for downstream demand to recover near the holiday, domestic zinc ore and zinc smelting production are normal, domestic short-term stocks are accumulated slightly, and the overall rise support of zinc market is insufficient, and the downward pressure is limited. Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate slightly in the future.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the quotation of industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate in Shanxi this week was 5833.33 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.56%, the current price fell by 1.13% month on month, and the current price rose by 40.56% year-on-year.

potassium nitrate

The domestic market of potassium nitrate is relatively stable this week. It can be seen from the above figure that the overall market of potassium nitrate fluctuates little in the near future and remains basically stable. The supply of potassium nitrate is normal, the market transaction is general, the manufacturer arranges orders and ships, the downstream procurement is just needed, the potassium nitrate Market is generally stable, and may rise with the potassium chloride Market in the later stage. According to the statistics of business agency, the quotation of mainstream domestic potassium nitrate manufacturers this week is 5700-5900 yuan / ton (the quotation is for reference only). The quotation is different according to different procurement conditions.

The market of potassium chloride has risen recently. The market price of 60% white potassium in domestic potassium is about 3600-3900 yuan / ton. The price of 62% white potassium in the port is about 4000-4100 yuan / ton. 62% Russian White potassium in border trade is about 3800-3900 yuan / ton. The higher potassium chloride market can support the cost of potassium nitrate.

Recently, the domestic potash fertilizer market is at a high level, the potassium chloride market is rising, and under the support of cost, it is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will mainly rise in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (the above prices are provided by major potassium nitrate manufacturers all over the country and sorted and analyzed by potassium carbonate analysts of business society. They are for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details).

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic PA66 market fell in December, and the spot prices of various brands fell significantly. As of December 30, the average ex factory price of PA66 adhesive injection molding sample enterprises of business society was about 36500 yuan / ton, with an increase or decrease of – 5.19% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: upstream, domestic adipic acid is short both in cost and supply and demand this month, and the price of raw materials is lower. The supply is affected by the expected temperature rise of plant restart, dragging down the market price. Adiponitrile has not improved much. The loss of production capacity of large international factories and the shortage of overseas transportation capacity are still affecting the market, and the supply shortage has not improved. Due to the high dependence on imports of adiponitrile, most domestic PA66 enterprises have operated at a low production load for a long time.

The upstream raw material adipic acid is weakly stable, the change of adiponitrile is limited, and the cost end support of PA66 is weakened. At present, there is no change in the operating rate of the industry compared with the previous period, the tight pattern of adiponitrile remains unchanged, and the operating rate of domestic PA66 industry continues to be low. Due to the shortage of inventories in various ports, the impact of international health events, the lack of overseas systematic transportation capacity, and the long-term shortage of domestic arrival, the boost effect of the recent rise of remote upstream crude oil has also been flattened. In terms of demand, buyers follow up slowly with goods, there is great resistance to high price goods, the seller’s mentality is loose, and the offer is weak.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the spot price of PA66 fell in December. The shortage of adiponitrile at the raw material end did not improve, and the adipic acid market fell. PA66 enterprise has a low overall load due to lack of raw materials, and the supply side supports the spot. However, downstream users have a deep resistance to high price sources, and the trading atmosphere on the floor is poor. It is expected that PA66 may continue to operate in a weak adjustment in the near future.

Annual market trend of DOP in 21 years

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the DOP price in 2021 was adjusted by a wide range of fluctuations, and the DOP price hit a record high of 15725 yuan / ton in the cycle on August 4, 2021 (Note: the cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now). The maximum price difference between the highest price (August 4) and the lowest price (January 20, 9400 yuan / ton) in 21 years is as high as 6300 yuan / ton, and the vibration frequency and amplitude are higher than those in previous years, with the maximum amplitude of 67.73%. The highest price and annual price difference of DOP in 21 years reached a new high, and the annual market of dop2021 was turbulent.

The trend of DOP is significantly affected by demand, cost, supply and policy. Therefore, the annual trend of DOP is divided into the following stages:

Demand support stage

Before the Spring Festival, the market demand was insufficient in the off-season, and the DOP price was low. On January 21, the DOP price was the lowest in 21 years.

After the festival, the cold wave in the United States led to more shutdown of chemical plants, a significant reduction in the output of chemical products, the transfer of foreign demand to China, strong demand support, and the price of raw materials isooctanol and phthalic anhydride soared. The sharp rise in raw material prices drives the rise in DOP prices. At the same time, the stability of downstream demand drives the rise in DOP prices. The rise in DOP also provides support for the rise of isooctanol, and the upstream and downstream strongly support each other.

 
After the cold wave ended in March, American chemical plants started one after another, the supply of chemicals basically recovered, and the prices of isooctanol and phthalic anhydride fell, dragging down the price of DOP. When the vaccine was put on the market, the demand for disposable PVC gloves declined and orders decreased; At the same time, due to the high price of DOP, the cost of downstream wire and cable, PVC film and other industries increases, and the start-up of downstream enterprises decreases. The downstream demand is insufficient, the operating rate of DOP manufacturers is high, the supply of plasticizer Market exceeds demand, and the price of DOP is under pressure.

Commencement restriction stage

Since mid April, DOP prices have rebounded from shock. In the overhaul of isooctanol units of Qilu Petrochemical, lihuayi and other enterprises, the price of isooctanol rose sharply, driving the price rise of plasticizer. However, the terminal demand was relatively stable, and the room for the rise of plasticizer was limited. The price of plasticizer fluctuated slightly in the off-season of the market in May and June. 7. Under the pressure of environmental protection in August, the start-up of enterprises decreased significantly, the market speculation atmosphere rose sharply, and the DOP price soared all the way, reaching a record high on August 4.

Downward phase of cost pressure

From August to the end of the year, the price of isooctanol was high, DOP cost pressure was huge, downstream customers had poor acceptance of high price DOP, and DOP price fluctuated and fell; In October, DOP prices rose briefly and then fell rapidly, and then continued to decline. This year’s golden nine silver ten peak season is not prosperous, and the downstream demand is low. In November of previous years, the export performance of downstream plastic products is strong. However, affected by the epidemic this year, there is no obvious Christmas stock in Europe and America, which has aroused the market’s concern about the prospect of DOP demand, and the DOP price has been falling all the way; In December, affected by environmental protection, the operating rate of DOP manufacturers in Hebei was low, but the overall DOP operation was relatively stable, the overall market demand was relatively low, the downstream customers just needed it, the stock was replenished at a low price, and the DOP price fluctuated downward.

When will the downward trend stop?

The troika affecting the price trend of DOP in 21 years is supply, demand and cost. Supply and demand is the basic driving force for the rise and fall of DOP products. Cost factors determine the profit space and fluctuation range of DOP. Since the second quarter, the rise of DOP industrial chain is mostly driven by isooctanol, while downstream customers follow. Demand growth and insufficient supply are the main reasons for the sharp rise of DOP in 21 years. Correspondingly, the high price of DOP leads to low enthusiasm for procurement in the downstream, more rigid procurement and low demand, which exacerbates the downward trend of DOP.

21 years is over. Let’s look forward to the market in 22 years. In the future, it is difficult to sustain the market in 21 years, and plasticizers return to rationality in 22 years.

Throughout the year, energy consumption is under dual control, environmental protection is normalized, enterprise operation is relatively stable, the supply and demand of plasticizer industry chain tends to be relatively stable in 22 years, and the price amplitude is bound to narrow. The production capacity of isooctanol enterprises basically meets the demand, but it is relatively scarce, and the concentration of production capacity is high. The leading enterprises have a big say in pricing, and the price of isooctanol has been relatively strong in 22 years. With the support of cost, the decline of plasticizer price is limited, and the DOP price in 22 years is fluctuated and adjusted at about 9500 yuan / ton.

In the short term, the new year is approaching, plasticizer manufacturers have a strong willingness to clear the warehouse, manufacturers actively ship, and plasticizers may be sold at reduced prices; In terms of supply and demand, January 22 was still the off-season in the market, but in late January, customers prepared goods in advance during the Spring Festival holiday, and the parking practice of DOP units during the Spring Festival had a certain positive support for the market demand. During the Winter Olympic Games, it may affect the production of some DOP chemical plants in Hebei and other places, and the expected supply of DOP decreased, which supported the rise of DOP; In terms of cost, DOP in 22 years is still greatly affected by the price fluctuation of isooctanol. In December, the price of isooctanol has approached the lowest price in 21 years, the profit of isooctanol has been reduced to the lowest level in the year, and the manufacturers of isooctanol are willing to support the price in the future. Overall, DOP prices are expected to fall slightly before the festival. After the festival, the plasticizer market may usher in a small rise.

According to the data monitored by the business society, the PP market trend fluctuated and weakened in December, and the spot prices of various brands fell slightly. As of December 31, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) from domestic manufacturers and traders was about 8130.00 yuan / ton, up or down – 2.52% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: in terms of upstream propylene, domestic propylene is stable and small this month. The raw material procurement of downstream factories is mainly based on rigid demand. The market wait-and-see mood is strong. The overall demand for propylene is general. In terms of supply, the on-site supply is sufficient, and the enterprise has great pressure to take goods. At present, the propylene market is in a stalemate, the forecast of future demand is general, and the propylene is expected to fluctuate downward in the short-term future.

In the upstream, the price of propylene raw material fluctuated, the recent weak operation of dynamic coal, the news was relatively negative, and the PP cost support was poor. In terms of supply, the supply of PP is basically abundant, and the operating rate of the industry is stable. At the end of the month, the inventory of two barrels of oil decreased moderately. In terms of demand, at present, the demand of terminal enterprises is relatively weak, the preparation before the festival is slow, there is no large-scale purchase follow-up, the merchant’s offer confidence is poor, and the profit on the site mainly depends on direct upstream propylene.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the data monitored by the business society, as of December 31, the spot price trend of domestic fiber PP fluctuated after falling. The mainstream offer price of Z30S (fiber) from domestic manufacturers and traders was about 8116.67 yuan / ton, with an increase or decrease of – 5.44% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month and a decrease of – 2.40% year-on-year. Recently, the demand for PP fiber materials has remained stable, the consumption of end products has been stable and small, and the profits of the main downstream non-woven enterprises have decreased slightly. The load of terminal enterprises shows a slight upward trend. The production situation of PP enterprises is mainly the completion of early orders. It is expected that the fiber material market may continue to consolidate steadily after the festival.

In terms of melt blown materials, the melt blown PP market was weak this month. As of December 31, the average quotation of domestic melt blown material sample enterprises monitored by the business society was about 9516.67 yuan / ton, up or down – 1.72% compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month. During the period of high incidence of recent rebound in health events in various countries, the number of local diagnoses in some areas of China has increased. However, the supply of meltblown materials in the field is sufficient, and dilution has a pulling effect on the spot market of meltblown cloth. The saturation pattern of domestic melt blown materials and cloth enterprises remains unchanged. It is heard that there is still capacity transfer out this month and other brands of PP. the industry competition is strong and the spot price is difficult to rise.

Future forecast

PP analysts of business society believe that the domestic polypropylene market was generally stable in December, the dynamic coal market was empty, the cost side was stable and weak, and the upstream support for PP was OK. The demand follow-up of terminal enterprises is general, the market is long and empty, and the demand is slow. It is expected that the PP market may still be weak in the short term.

In December, the domestic asphalt market first fell and then rose, and the market began to recover slowly in the second half of the month. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the spot price of domestic asphalt at the beginning of the month was 3147 yuan / ton, and the market price of domestic asphalt at the end of the month was 3191 yuan / ton. The price increased by 1.40% during the month and 29.59% year-on-year.

At the beginning of June, affected by the sharp decline of international crude oil and weak market demand, the market price continued to decline.

In the middle of June, the price of domestic asphalt market fluctuated between regions: affected by the rise of crude oil price and the reduction of executable contracts in North China, the offer of some low-end resources increased. The prices of some refineries of Sinopec in East China and Shandong decreased by 50-100 yuan / ton, driving the decline of high-end prices in the market. Some traders in Northeast China took the initiative to reduce prices to the warehouse, and the price of Kuti fell.

In late June, the price of domestic asphalt market fluctuated between regions: the price of some main refineries of Sinopec in East China increased by 30 yuan / ton, driving the market quotation to rise slightly. The price of PetroChina Qinhuangdao in North China decreased by 250 yuan / ton, which led to an obvious decrease in high-end prices; With the weakening demand in Shandong, the low-end quotation fell slightly; The price in Northeast China decreased by 25 yuan / ton, mainly due to the preferential shipment of individual refined asphalt, driving the price downward.

At the end of the month, the international crude oil was slightly strong, driving the whole asphalt spot market, and the overall stock demand in the asphalt spot market increased.

Annual comparison chart of asphalt price from 2017 to 2021:

Monthly K column chart of asphalt domestic production price:

Weekly K column chart of asphalt domestic production price:

Comparison chart of crude oil and asphalt price trend of business society:

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices in December 2021, there were 6 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the energy sector, including 3 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 18.8% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were petroleum coke (20.70%), WTI crude oil (16.33%) and Brent crude oil (14.88%). A total of 9 commodities decreased month on month, and 6 commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 37.5% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were liquefied natural gas (- 30.46%), thermal coal (- 24.19%) and methanol (- 14.26%). The average rise and fall this month was – 3.2%.

The trend of international crude oil price is upward, which drives the atmosphere of asphalt futures market in the short term. In terms of spot, it is driven by conventional demand. With the change of weather, the demand may fall into a stalemate. Asphalt analysts of business society expect that the domestic asphalt market will be mainly consolidated.

Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business society, the sulfur price trend first fell and then rose in December, and the overall market was upward. As of December 31, the average ex factory price of sulfur market in East China was 2026.67 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.33% in the month compared with the average ex factory price of 2000.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

In December, the domestic sulfur market was consolidated and operated, and the price showed an overall upward trend in the month. At the beginning of the month, the market supply was sufficient, the downstream demand was weak, the phosphate fertilizer market was weak, the terminal consumption did not support sulfur, and the focus of on-site negotiation shifted downward. In the middle and late December, the trend of downstream products rose, the export of enterprises increased, the sulfur sales were smooth, the shipping atmosphere was good, the downstream market supported the upward sulfur market, and the quotation of sulfur enterprises rose.

Downstream market of industrial chain

The downstream sulfuric acid market first fell and then rose in December. The quotation increased from 628.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 645.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, up 16.67 yuan / ton, or 2.65%. During the month, the prices of mainstream sulfuric acid manufacturers in Shandong increased, the manufacturers produced at low load and had less inventory. In addition, the enterprise’s shipment performance was good, the operator’s mentality was positive, and the quotation was increased according to the trend. The market trend in the month was upward.

In terms of phosphate fertilizer, the market of winter storage is weak. In December, the market of Monoammonium and diammonium is weak, the downstream demand is general, and the trading atmosphere on the floor is weak. Diammonium enterprises mainly maintain early orders, and the price trend runs smoothly. The market demand for monoammonium is low, the enthusiasm for downstream procurement is weak, the market orders are small, and the price trend continues to decline.

Future forecast

According to the sulfur analyst of business society, the current sulfur price is stable and wait-and-see operation, the inventory of refineries in domestic areas remains low, the downstream just needs to follow up, the enterprise shipment is smooth, and the market transaction is weak. It is expected that the sulfur market will wait-and-see consolidation, and it may rise in the later stage. Pay attention to the downstream demand.