As can be seen from the above figure, the factory price of isooctanol in Shandong has fluctuated and dropped sharply this month. The price of isooctanol dropped from 9200.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 9166.67 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a drop of 0.36%. A year-on-year decrease of 23.61%.

On November 29, the isooctanol commodity index was 67.40, down 1.72 points from yesterday, down 50.98% from the cycle’s highest point of 137.50 (2021-08-08), and up 91.75% from the lowest point of 35.15 on February 1, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the price of mainstream isooctanol manufacturers in Shandong rose first and then fell this month, and the manufacturer’s inventory was average.

The upstream support is increased, and the downstream demand is general

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chains, the upstream propylene market rose slightly this month, with the propylene price rising from 7036.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 7540.60 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 7.16%. Compared with the same period last year, it fell 1.01% year on year. The cost support increased, which had a positive impact on the price of isooctanol. Downstream DOP prices fell in shock. The DOP price dropped from 10150.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 10000.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a drop of 1.48%, 13.23% YoY compared with the same period last year. Downstream market fell slightly, and downstream customers’ purchasing enthusiasm for isooctanol weakened.

The market rose slightly after shocks

In the first ten days of December, the domestic isooctanol market may rise by a small amplitude, mainly finishing. The upstream propylene price rose slightly, the cost support increased, the downstream DOP market fell slightly, and there was an upward trend at the end of the month. The downstream manufacturers were generally enthusiastic about purchasing isooctanol, and the product trend rose under the contradiction between supply and demand. The isooctanol analysts from the business community believe that the domestic isooctanol market may rise slightly due to the impact of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects in the short term.

According to the price monitoring data of the business community, as of December 5, 2022, the price reference of domestic n-propanol was 8550 yuan/ton. Compared with December 1 (the reference price of n-propanol was 8616 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 66 yuan/ton, or 0.77%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that the domestic n-propanol market fell slightly in early December (12.01-12.05). Recently, the shipping price of n-propanol of Shandong Dachang decreased slightly, driving the overall market focus downward. In terms of cost, in December, the cost support for n-propanol was loose due to the downward trend of raw material market. In terms of demand, the downstream demand of n-propanol is mainly the purchase of rigid demand, and the overall support of the demand side is general. On December 5, the market price of n-propanol in Shandong Province was around 8100-8550 yuan/ton. The barreled market price is around 9100-9500 yuan/ton. Distributors in different regions have reservations about the price. The price is difficult to monitor, which may lead to differences in the specific negotiation. Each region also has differences, and the actual negotiation is the main thing.

Prediction of the future market trend of n-propanol

At present, many places across the country have received good macro news. The market circulation in many places has changed a lot compared with the previous period, and the mentality of the industry has changed. Although the n-propanol market is generally supported on the supply and demand side, the n-propanol data engineer of the business community believes that, under the good atmosphere of the general environment, in the short term, the domestic n-propanol market can mostly adjust and operate in a narrow range, and the risk of a sharp decline in the market is small. More attention should be paid to the changes in the information on the supply and demand side for the specific trend.

1、 Price trend

Business agency: domestic maleic anhydride market price fluctuated and fell in November

According to the data of the business community, the average price of maleic anhydride as of November 30 was 7000.00 yuan/ton (tax included), down 6.42% from 7480.00 yuan/ton on November 1.

On November 30, the maleic anhydride commodity index was 65.94, unchanged from yesterday, down 60.38% from the highest point of 166.43 (2021-12-15) in the cycle, and up 28.84% from the lowest point of 51.18 on April 14, 2020. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

In November, the domestic benzene maleic anhydride market continued to shut down. Zhejiang Dachang is expected to shut down in December. At the beginning of the month, it is in the stage of stocking up. The price of the main maleic anhydride factory continues to fall. The resin is operated cautiously and mainly purchased on demand. At the end of the month, the logistics in many places across the country was blocked, and the supply of maleic anhydride in major factories was sufficient. However, Jiangsu and Zhejiang manufacturers began to close their doors and wait. Shandong manufacturers reduced their production, and the price of maleic anhydride showed an upward trend. As of the 30th, the solid anhydride in Shandong was about 6700 yuan/ton, and that in Jiangsu was about 6750 yuan/ton. There was no new price outflow from Shanxi and Hebei, and that in South China was about 7200 yuan/ton.

In November, the trend of international crude oil prices was volatile and downward. The Federal Reserve suggested that the interest rate increase was far from over and was not close to the end of monetary tightening. At present, the interest rate increase of the Federal Reserve has limited impact on inflation, which is not enough to reduce inflation. The Federal Reserve may need to take more tightening measures to curb inflation in the future, which will affect the decline of crude oil prices. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) once again lowered the growth expectation of global crude oil demand in 2022. With the risk of global economic recession intensifying, the future slowdown of demand growth is a certainty, and fuel demand will also face pressure. The most important thing is that the overall economy is weak. The severe epidemic situation in Asia continues to drag down demand expectations. The prospect of energy demand is still not optimistic, and economic weakness depresses oil prices.

In November, the hydrogenation benzene market showed a downward trend. The ex factory price in North China was 7733.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 6916.67 yuan/ton at the end of the month, down 10.56% month on month. The hydrogenation benzene market as a whole is still weak in the near future. The performance of crude oil and styrene is still weak. The market is in a strong wait-and-see mood. Affected by the decline of pure benzene, the price of hydrogenation benzene continues to decline. There are some bargain hunting purchases in the market, and the deal is fair. In terms of supply, East China has a relatively sufficient supply of imported goods, which has a certain drag on the market mentality.

3、 Future market forecast

Maleic anhydride product analysts from the business community believe that the domestic maleic anhydride market continued to decline in November. At present, the domestic maleic anhydride market suffers from a serious deficit in benzene oxidation process. The factory has been shut down for maintenance, and the market circulation of goods is small. Zhejiang Dachang is expected to stop in December. In the first ten days of this year, it was in the stage of stocking up. The price of the main maleic anhydride factory continued to fall. The resin was operated cautiously, and it was mainly purchased on demand. At present, the logistics in many places across the country is blocked, and the supply of maleic anhydride in the main factories is sufficient. However, the manufacturers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have begun to close the offer and wait, while the production of Shandong manufacturers has decreased, and the price has an upward trend at the end of the month. Maleic anhydride market is expected to rise in the near future.

The market of dichloromethane was weak in late November. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of November 30, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong was 2272 yuan/ton, 7.72% lower than 2462 yuan/ton on November 21, and the low point in the cycle was 2237 yuan/ton. As of the 30th day, the market price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong was between 2200 yuan and 2400 yuan/ton.

The pressure on the supply side of dichloromethane remained in late November.

In late November, the spot market of methanol fluctuated in a narrow range, and the cost of dichloromethane did not change much. According to the business community, as of November 30, the spot price of methanol was 2768 yuan/ton, down 0.89% from 2793 yuan/ton on November 21, with a high point of 2811 yuan/ton and a low point of 2751 yuan/ton.

When winter comes, the domestic household air conditioning industry is in the low season of production and sales. The demand for mainstream refrigerants R32, R22 and R410A is weak, and the sales of refrigerants are low; The demand of film, thinner and pharmaceutical industries is weak, and the transaction of methylene chloride market is generally flat.

Future forecast: The analysts of the methane chloride data of the business community believe that the domestic supply of methane chloride is mainly loose, and the demand is weak. It is expected that the dichloromethane market will fluctuate and consolidate in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid rose sharply in November. As of the end of the month, the market price of hydrofluoric acid was 12242.86 yuan/ton, 10.30% higher than the price of 11100 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, down 12.74% year on year.

Supply side: The domestic price of hydrofluoric acid rose sharply in November. As of the end of the month, the mainstream price of hydrofluoric acid negotiated by various regions in China was 12200-12600 yuan/ton. Recently, the epidemic situation in some northern regions has been repeated, some devices have been stopped, and the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid has decreased. Some manufacturers in the south maintained that overall, the operating rate of hydrofluoric acid declined and the supply of goods was tight, which affected the price trend to rise.

Raw material side: The market price of raw material fluorite continues to rise. As of the end of the month, the average price of domestic fluorite was 3225 yuan/ton, 1.57% higher than the price of 3175 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. Since April, the price of fluorite has risen unilaterally. At present, the price is at the peak of the year. The operating rate of fluorite mines remains low. Mining enterprises are facing increasingly stringent safety and environmental protection requirements, resulting in insufficient operation of fluorite mines. There is a shortage of domestic fluorite raw materials. The commencement of fluorite flotation is limited, and the spot supply is insufficient. In addition, the export volume of fluorite has increased significantly. With the decline of temperature, the production enterprises in the north have stopped working, the supply of fluorite is very tight, the price of fluorite continues to rise, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid has risen significantly due to the cost.

Demand side: The market of downstream refrigerant products of the terminal is fair, and the operating rate of the refrigerant industry remains low. At present, the price trend of refrigerant R22 is temporarily stable, and the market supply is normal. The demand in the application field of R22 market is guaranteed, and the market quotation of R22 is in the range of 18000-20000 yuan/ton. The domestic R134a price has declined slightly, the trichloroethylene price has risen, and the cost support is still in place. The R134a trading center has declined slightly. At present, the R134a market quotation is in the range of 25000-26000 yuan/ton. Previously, downstream refrigerant enterprises were all trading at a loss in order to compete for HFC production quota. With the implementation of the three generation refrigerant quota, the history of quota competition in the refrigerant industry is coming to an end, which also provides a basis for the price increase of the industrial chain. The price of hydrofluoric acid market has risen greatly supported by the strong cost.

Future market forecast: the upstream supply of fluorite is tight, the fluorite price continues to rise, coupled with the shutdown of some hydrofluoric acid devices for maintenance, the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is tight, and the downstream refrigerant product price is temporarily stable. Chen Ling, a hydrofluoric acid analyst from the business community, believes that the price trend of the hydrofluoric acid market will continue to rise in the future.

This week (November 19 to November 26), the market price of 1 # electrolytic manganese was temporarily stable. The spot market price in East China was 17250 yuan/ton last weekend and 17250 yuan/ton this weekend, unchanged.

Manganese ore: This week, the trend of the manganese ore market was different from north to south. Tianjin Port maintained a weak operation, and there were not many inquiries on the whole. At the beginning of the week, the ore price gradually loosened from 0.2-0.3 yuan/ton, until Thursday, when the futures volume rose and the external quotation rose, the confidence of the spot market slightly increased, and the low price sales decreased; The quotation of Qinzhou Port manganese ore continues to be firm. Downstream manufacturers mostly purchase on demand. The supply of high-grade oxidized ore is small and concentrated. In addition to the strong upward trend of silicon manganese futures in recent days, the quotation of oxidized ore on Friday rose again, about 1 yuan/ton higher than the quotation at the beginning of the week.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the weekly and monthly electrolytic manganese K-bar chart above that since March 2022, the electrolytic manganese has continued to decline. After a slight rise in the price at the end of August, it continues to stabilize temporarily. Since the end of September, the price has risen slightly. Since October, the price has remained unchanged for a long time, and fell slightly in November.

The price of electrolytic manganese market is temporarily stable this week. At present, the price of mainstream market is 15,600-15,800 yuan/ton, which is slightly improved compared with the previous period. The market has a strong attitude of price fixing. Some enterprises have a strong attitude of price fixing, and they are reluctant to sell. In terms of supply, under the call for production reduction, the recent operating rate is still low, the market supply is limited, and some quotations are high, but the overall transaction is limited, and the game psychology of both the supply and demand sides is still strong. The downstream demand is still soft in the near future, and the market is dominated by just needed procurement. In terms of steel recruitment, the performance was average, the price was higher than in the early stage, and the market mentality was slightly improved. In general, the electrolytic manganese market lacks the support of actual demand. Under the pattern of weak supply and demand, it is expected to maintain a temporary stable operation in the short term. In the long run, the implementation of production restriction by subsequent enterprises may be beneficial to the market, and the supply and demand game mentality is strong.

Manganese and silicon: This week, the demand of silicon manganese market was weak, and the news of steel mills stopping production and reducing production kept coming out. On the other hand, some factories said that there were not many stocks in stock, and the industry was more resistant to low prices. Under the mixed information, the silicon manganese alloy market was deadlocked, and the actual transaction price was slightly adjusted. According to the price monitoring of the business community, the market price of silicon manganese in Ningxia (specification: FeMN68Si18) was about 7050-7150 yuan/ton on November 25, The average market price was 7083 yuan/ton, down 0.58% from Monday.

The price of domestic fluorite rose slightly. As of the 25th, the average price of domestic fluorite was 3218.75 yuan/ton, 0.59% higher than the price of 3200 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. Since April, the price of fluorite has risen unilaterally. At present, the price is at the highest point in the year.

Supply side: the mine is difficult to start and the spot supply is tight

The operating rate of domestic supply side remains low, and backward mines will continue to be eliminated. In terms of new mines, mineral survey is still difficult. Mining enterprises are faced with increasingly stringent safety and environmental protection requirements, resulting in insufficient commencement of fluorite mines, shortage of domestic fluorite raw materials, and limited commencement of fluorite flotation. With the decline of temperature, fluorite enterprises in the north are gradually stopped, and the spot supply continues to decline. In addition, the epidemic situation in some areas is serious, fluorite transportation is difficult, fluorite supply is very tight, and fluorite prices rise slightly.

Demand side: Hydrofluoric acid market rose, refrigerant market temporarily stabilized

The price trend of downstream hydrofluoric acid market rose. As of the 25th, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market price was 12071.43 yuan/ton. This week, the price rose by 6.42%. The domestic hydrofluoric acid market trend rose. In some northern regions, the epidemic situation was repeated, some devices were stopped, and the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid was reduced. The rising price of hydrofluoric acid market formed a certain positive support for the upstream fluorite market, and the fluorite market price rose slightly.

The market of the downstream refrigerant products of the terminal is fair, and the operating rate of the refrigerant industry remains low. At present, the price of refrigerant R22 has risen slightly, and the market supply is normal. The demand for R22 in the application field of the market is guaranteed, and the market price of R22 is in the range of 18000-20000 yuan/ton. The domestic R134a price has not changed much, the trichloroethylene price remains unchanged, the cost support is still in place, and the R134a trading focus remains stable. At present, the R134a market quotation is in the range of 25000-27000 yuan/ton. Previously, downstream refrigerant enterprises were all trading at a loss in order to compete for HFC production quota. With the implementation of three generation refrigerant quota, the history of quota competition in the refrigerant industry is coming to an end, which also provides a basis for the price increase of the industrial chain.

In addition to the traditional demand of the refrigerant industry in the downstream, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material for modern industry, has been continuously developed in emerging fields. It is also used in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as in national defense, nuclear industry and other fields, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF, graphite cathode, photovoltaic panels, etc. With the demand of new energy, semiconductor and other fields driving, the outlook of the fluorochemical industry chain has been supported in the long run.

Future market forecast: North fluorite enterprises have entered a production suspension period. In addition to the recent shortage of raw material fluorite ore supply, hydrofluoric acid enterprises are in a high stock mood. New energy, semiconductor and new material industries are developing rapidly, supporting the long-term demand for fluorite. Chen Ling, an analyst of the business community, believes that fluorite market prices are easy to rise but difficult to fall.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of caustic soda was temporarily stable this week. At the beginning of the week, the average market price in Shandong was 1098 yuan/ton, and at the weekend, the average market price in Shandong was 1096 yuan/ton, down 0.18%, and up 16.6% compared with the same period last year. On November 17, the caustic soda commodity index was 157.70, down 0.29 points from yesterday, down 40.60% from the cycle’s highest point of 265.47 (2021-10-27), and up 142.21% from the lowest point of 65.11 on October 9, 2020. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the survey data of the business community, the domestic caustic soda price was consolidated this week. At present, the average market price in Shandong is about 1050-1100 yuan/ton. The factory quotation of 32% liquid caustic soda mainstream in Hebei is about 1100-1300 yuan/ton. The price of caustic soda in the market is stuck, and the supply has increased recently. Most enterprises maintain high load production. However, the downstream market is mainly in a wait-and-see mood, and more cautious purchasing is required. The purchasing mood is general, and the market is in a stalemate.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the 45th week of 2022 (11.7-11.11), there were 1 rising commodity, 2 falling commodities and 2 zero rising and falling commodities in the price list of chlor alkali industry. The main commodities that rose were: PVC (1.07%); The main commodities falling were calcium carbide (-2.61%) and light soda ash (-0.23%). The average rise and fall this week was -0.35%.

Analysts from the business community believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda is in a stalemate, and the downstream alumina, viscose staple fiber and other industries are under normal operation, so the purchasing mood is not high. It is mainly wait-and-see operation, cautious purchasing, and the overall support is limited. It is generally expected that caustic soda will be put into operation next week, depending on the downstream market demand.

The price trend of domestic phthalic anhydride market was temporarily stable. As of the 18th, the price of phthalic anhydride was 9150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the price of 9150 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year increase of 19.22%.

The phthalic anhydride unit operates stably and the supply of goods is normal

There are two main production processes for phthalic anhydride, one is phthalic anhydride produced by o-benzene method, and the other is phthalic anhydride produced by naphthalene method. Recently, the price of naphthalene phthalic anhydride has risen slightly, and the price difference with neighboring phthalic anhydride has narrowed to about 200 yuan/ton. Affected by this, the price trend of neighboring phthalic anhydride has temporarily stabilized. The supply of phthalic anhydride in the adjacent process is normal, the operation of domestic devices is stable, the domestic phthalic anhydride operating rate remains more than 50%, and the phthalic anhydride price trend in the site is temporarily stable.

The price trend of raw material o-benzene is stable

The price trend of domestic ortho benzene is temporarily stable. By the end of the weekend, the price of ortho benzene was 9000 yuan/ton, which was more stable than that at the beginning of the week. Some units in the plant are still under repair. According to the manufacturer, the supply of raw materials, ortho benzene, is still tight. The price trend of the external market is stable, and the market of ortho benzene is temporarily stable. Affected by this, the market of phthalic anhydride is stable.

Plasticizer market rose slightly

The downstream DOP market price trend of phthalic anhydride has risen. At present, the domestic DOP price is 10100 yuan/ton. The domestic DOP enterprises have started to work steadily. For phthalic anhydride, the purchase is mainly on demand, and the mainstream DOP price is 10000-1200 yuan/ton. The rising downstream market is a positive impact of the phthalic anhydride market, and the phthalic anhydride market trend is stable.

In the future, the price trend of o-xylene is stable in the short term, the demand of downstream plasticizer industry is general, the terminal demand is weak due to frequent outbreaks, and the supply of phthalic anhydride is sufficient. It is expected that the price of phthalic anhydride will decline slightly in the later period.

441 # silicon price trend

The price of silicon metal continued to fall slightly this week, the market transaction atmosphere continued to be cold, and the manufacturer’s inventory pressure increased, so the actual transaction price gradually fell. As of November 18, the average price of 441 # metal silicon in the domestic market was 20910 yuan/ton according to the price monitoring of the business community.

The price of 441 # silicon in each region on the 18th is as follows:

The price range of # 441 silicon metal in Huangpu Port area is 20800-21000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 20900 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 silicon metal in Tianjin Port is 20800-21000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 20900 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 silicon metal in Kunming is 20500-20600 yuan/ton, with an average of 20500 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 silicon metal in Sichuan is 20500-20600 yuan/ton, with an average of 20550 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 silicon metal in Shanghai is 21,400-21,600 yuan/ton, with an average price of 21,500 yuan/ton.

Factors Affecting the Declining Price of Silicon Metal

Supply:

The production situation in Xinjiang has improved, and the number of open furnaces is stable; Due to factors such as the rise of power cost in the dry season in Southwest China, the enthusiasm for boiler shutdown and maintenance has declined. It is understood that the total number of silicon metal furnaces is 702 at present. As of November 17, the silicon metal furnace opening rate is about 50.43%, 93 in Xinjiang, 66 in Sichuan and 80 in Yunnan.

Cost:

The price of silicon coal raw materials is high, the control in Xinjiang is relaxed, and the supply of raw materials is guaranteed. The southwest dry season is approaching, so the cost will be supported.

The price of aluminum alloy ADC12 was the same as last week, the mainstream quotation was 18600 yuan/ton, the weekly operating rate of aluminum alloy was stable, and for metal silicon, the stock replenishment was still mainly just needed; The organic silicon DMC market rose slightly as a whole. The price reference was around 17,300-18,500 yuan/ton. With the increase of the parking and maintenance equipment at the supply side, the confidence of the operators was restored, but the production was still in a loss situation, and the enthusiasm for metal silicon procurement was poor.

The polysilicon mainstream range reached RMB 298-30900/t, and the silicon chip enterprises’ quotations remained stable,. The mainstream transaction price of M10 was stable at 7.37 yuan/piece, but downstream demand slowed down, and silicon chip manufacturers showed signs of stock accumulation, which did not rule out the possibility of continuing to reduce prices.

Future market forecast

At present, production in Xinjiang has resumed, to a certain extent, filling the supply gap in the southwest dry season. However, the cost increase in Yunnan and Sichuan may continue to reduce production. The manufacturers are reluctant to sell, and it is expected that the silicon price will fall by a limited margin