According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from July 8th to 12th, the domestic ethanol price rose from 6032 yuan/ton to 6040 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.12% during the week and a price decrease of 10.52% year-on-year. Some regions have tentatively increased, but downstream purchases are mostly on demand, with average transaction volume. Under high costs, most companies bear the pressure of losses and are unwilling to lower prices to place orders. Considering the current weak demand, the domestic ethanol market has only maintained a slight upward trend.

In terms of cost, the surplus grain at the grassroots level has bottomed out, and downstream procurement will be carried out in stages, with a limited amount of imported grain powder. The corn market is operating at a high level. The cost of ethanol is influenced by favorable factors.

On the supply side, there are significant differences in the operating rates of production enterprises in different regions. The supply of ethanol is affected by favorable factors.

On the demand side, in the off-season of Baijiu consumption, the anhydrous purchase volume of methyl ethyl ester will increase; Ethyl acetate starts production to reduce negative load. Short term ethanol demand is influenced by bearish factors.

In the future, some regions are expected to have favorable cost performance, which will support the firm ex factory prices of production enterprises. The weak demand in most regions has affected the atmosphere of the ethanol market. The ethanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the short-term domestic ethanol market will be mainly dominated by weak consolidation.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 31st, the average market price of compound fertilizer was 3075 yuan/ton, and on May 1st, the average market price of compound fertilizer was 3060 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.46% compared to the beginning of last month.

Upstream raw material trends

urea

This month, domestic urea prices have fluctuated and risen. On May 1st, the price of urea was 2435 yuan/ton, and on May 31st, the price of urea was 2493 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.36% compared to the beginning of the month.

Firstly, the urea futures market has performed well, and the spot market has also moderately risen. More importantly, the supply and demand fundamentals remain positive. On the one hand, there are more supply side maintenance companies, and multiple units in Shandong, Henan, and Shanxi have not yet started construction. The inventory of urea enterprises remains at a low level. On the other hand, on the demand side, agricultural demand maintains a good momentum, and there is still a gap in agricultural demand. The shipment volume of urea manufacturers is at a high level, with prices generally rising. The upward momentum of urea prices at the end of the month is insufficient, and there may be a pullback.

Ammonium phosphate market

The market price of monoammonium phosphate has risen, while diammonium phosphate has been steadily consolidating and operating. The price of raw material phosphate ore is high and firm, with support from the cost side.

Monoammonium phosphate

It is 2853 yuan/ton. As of May 31st, the average market price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate in China was 3150 yuan/ton. The market price of ammonium phosphate increased by 10.4% this month.

Diammonium phosphate

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate in China was 3896 yuan/ton on May 1st. On May 31st, the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate in China was 3883 yuan/ton. This month, the market price of diammonium phosphate decreased by 0.34%.

Currently, the demand for diammonium phosphate in the market is light, and new transactions are limited.

Potassium sulfate

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of potassium sulfate with a 50% content at the beginning of this month was 3176 yuan/ton, and the price of potassium sulfate with a 50% content at the end of this month was 3264 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 2.76%.

In May, domestic potassium sulfate prices showed an upward trend. Resource based potassium sulfate manufacturer Guotou Luokang entered a comprehensive maintenance state at the end of this month and plans to resume production by September. As a result, the supply of goods has sharply decreased, and the spot supply in the hands of traders is also tight. The operating rate of potassium sulfate plants in Mannheim is mostly maintained at over 70%. The manufacturers have a high number of orders in the early stage and are currently not accepting orders at high prices. Most factory orders can continue to be shipped until late June or even July. Processed potassium sulfate manufacturers are relatively active in purchasing raw materials for potassium chloride. Driven by rigid demand, they mainly purchase on demand based on orders.

In terms of compound fertilizer, due to the rising prices of raw materials such as urea, ammonium phosphate, potassium fertilizer, etc., the cost of compound fertilizer has significantly increased, and the price of compound fertilizer has shown a fluctuating upward trend this month.

In terms of supply and demand

From a demand perspective, as the summer market approaches its end, the amount of compound fertilizer used is decreasing, and even if the price of compound fertilizer continues to rise, it will not be too high. From the inventory situation, some dealers have low inventory and usually purchase the required varieties through order based procurement according to the needs of market entities. Therefore, although the demand for compound fertilizers will weaken in the future, low inventory may make the price of compound fertilizers relatively stable.

Future Market Forecast

It is expected that after the summer market ends in mid June, the supply and demand of compound fertilizers will gradually weaken. However, due to low inventory levels and stable costs as the main influencing factor, the operation of the compound fertilizer market is not expected to experience significant fluctuations. There may be a slight adjustment in price, and the price difference between high and low prices may be further reduced.

In May, the market for butadiene rubber saw a significant increase. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 31, the market price of butadiene rubber in East China was 14090 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.26% from the beginning of the month at 13260 yuan/ton.

In May, downstream tire production fluctuated slightly, with demand mainly supported by the rigid demand for butadiene rubber and downstream stocking based on demand; The market price of raw material butadiene fluctuates at a high level, while the cost center of butadiene rubber remains high; The overall load of butadiene rubber is not high, and the pressure on the supply side of butadiene rubber is not high; The futures price of butadiene rubber was significantly boosted by natural rubber, and the ex factory price of butadiene rubber enterprises gradually increased in late May. As of May 31st, the mainstream price of butadiene rubber market in East China was 13900~14300 yuan/ton.

In May, the production of butadiene rubber remained at a low level, and there was not much pressure on the market supply. As of the end of May, the domestic butadiene rubber plant construction was around 5.7%.

In May, the price of butadiene remained high, and there is still strong support for the cost of butadiene rubber. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 31st, the price of butadiene was 11875 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.39% from 11712 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and an increase of 7.10% from the low point in the cycle.

Demand side: Downstream tire production fluctuates slightly, providing rigid support for butadiene rubber. It is understood that as of the end of May, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was around 80%; The production of all steel tires by tire enterprises in Shandong region increased from 6.4% at the beginning of the month to 6.8% in the middle of the month, and then slightly decreased to around 6.6% at the end of the month; Downstream customers tend to stock up on demand, resulting in lackluster market transactions.

Market forecast: Business Society analysts believe that the price of raw material butadiene is still at a high level, and the cost support for butadiene rubber is still strong; The overall production of butadiene rubber remains low, and there is no pressure on the supply side of butadiene rubber; At present, downstream tire companies have experienced slight fluctuations in production, with the main support for the rigid demand for butadiene rubber. Overall, the butadiene rubber market is expected to rise and consolidate in the later stage under the support of cost and low production.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the stearic acid market fluctuated in May, with a benchmark price of 8560 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. As of May 31st, the benchmark price of stearic acid was 8900 yuan/ton, an increase of 125 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month. Increase by 1.42%. In early May, stearic acid rose and then fell, followed by a second increase in late May. As of the last day of May, stearic acid increased by 4.97% compared to April. On the cost side, palm oil fell and rose in May, and the current situation shows that some stearic acid production enterprises still have low profits.

2、 Market analysis

Cost side: In early May, the palm oil futures market experienced a rebound, and after the rebound, it gradually rebounded. On May 10th, the average price of palm oil in the market fell to 7770 yuan/ton, a decrease of over 3% compared to the beginning of the month. In mid May, due to the increasing production cycle of Malay palm oil, palm oil experienced a pullback after rising. Long and short intertwined, palm oil saw a relatively large increase of nearly 1.5%. On May 30th, the average price of palm oil in the market was 7940 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.45% compared to May 20th. Starting from June, the weather has warmed up, and the demand for terminal oils has declined. The upward space for palm oil is still limited.

Supply and demand side: In May, the production and operation of the stearic acid factory approached a load level of 6.6, which was almost the same as the previous month. The factory operation was stable, and the shipment volume remained at a stable level. The domestic supply of goods was also quite stable, supplemented by imported goods to replenish inventory. In April, the import volume of stearic acid in China was 21450.756 tons, and from January to April, the total import volume of stearic acid in China was 96063.289 tons. At present, there is sufficient inventory of stearic acid.

Downstream PVC: The spot market price of PVC rose in May. On May 1st, the average price of PVC in China was 5556 yuan/ton. On May 28th, the average price was 6026 yuan/ton, and the price increased by 8.46% within the month. This month’s news is mainly positive, with the rise of futures driving prices in the spot market. Downstream product enterprises hold a wait-and-see attitude.

3、 Future Market Forecast

The stearic acid market fluctuated in May, with some fluctuations in the cost of palm oil, but overall the market slightly declined. Cost support is slightly weak. The improvement in demand for PVC downstream is limited. It is expected that the stearic acid market will continue to be weak and consolidate in the later period.

On May 29th, the crude benzene commodity index was 118.54, an increase of 0.78 points from yesterday, a decrease of 10.09% from the highest point in the cycle of 131.84 points (2013-01-28), and an increase of 288.15% from the lowest point of 30.54 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-09-01 present).

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, in May 2024, the crude benzene market first fell and then rose. The domestic ex factory price of crude benzene was 7690 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 7570 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly decrease of 1.56%.

Crude oil prices: Business Society crude oil analysts believe that the future crude oil supply and demand game will continue. On the supply side, the OPEC ministerial meeting will be held on June 1st, at which time the organization will discuss production reduction policies. Currently, the policy tends to continue the previous production reduction scale. In addition, countries such as Iraq and Kazakhstan have submitted compensatory production reduction plans for exceeding quotas, and Russia’s technical excess has also promised compensatory production reduction. There will not be too much change on the supply side in the future. From the demand side, future demand may have two sides. On the one hand, gasoline demand in the United States is expected to increase as the summer driving season begins. At the same time, China is currently implementing intensive economic stimulus measures, and there is also some potential for future demand. On the other hand, in the medium to long term, oil demand is still constrained by the high interest rate environment in the United States, and there is a certain degree of uncertainty on the demand side. Overall, the short-term decline in crude oil prices is a squeezing effect of amplified bearish sentiment on both supply and demand sides. However, the future supply and demand fundamentals do not support the maintenance of low oil prices. It is expected that there is still room for upward movement after the adjustment of oil prices. On May 28th, international crude oil futures rose. The settlement price of the main WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $79.83 per barrel, an increase of $2.11 or 2.7% from last Friday. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract was $83.94 per barrel, up $1.06 or 1.3%.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the pure benzene market has seen more ups and downs in recent times.

In May 2024, Sinopec’s listed price for pure benzene increased by a total of 200 yuan/ton, with a current implementation of 9000 yuan/ton.

Other companies: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 9000 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 8800 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 9003 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 9000 yuan/ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 8800 yuan/ton.

In terms of the industrial chain, the overall pure benzene market has steadily increased this month, with market prices steadily rising. The overall increase in the first half of the month was limited, but by the end of the month, the supply of pure benzene in East China was tight, driving up the sentiment in the spot market. Sinopec raised its listing price to 9000 yuan/ton at the end of the month, once again boosting market sentiment. The mainstream ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene has also risen to 9000-9100 yuan/ton, and manufacturers have a strong attitude towards price support. The overall market atmosphere is strong.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. After entering 23 years, the hydrogenated benzene market has seen more ups and downs. In May, the market continued to decline for two consecutive months, while in July and August, it continued to rise for two consecutive months. The weekly K-bar chart shows that the hydrogenated benzene market has seen more gains than losses in recent times.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. After entering 23 years, the hydrogenated benzene market has seen more ups and downs. In May, the market continued to decline for two consecutive months, while in July and August, it continued to rise for two consecutive months. The weekly K-bar chart shows that the hydrogenated benzene market has seen more gains than losses in recent times.

Although crude benzene belongs to coal chemical commodities, the downstream commodity of crude benzene, hydrogenated benzene, serves as a substitute for pure benzene. Therefore, the market trend of crude benzene is mainly influenced by the pure benzene industry chain, and the trend basically follows the fluctuations of the pure benzene market. In terms of supply, the profits of coking enterprises recovered in May, and the operating rate steadily rebounded. Currently, the overall supply of crude benzene is relatively stable. Affected by the recovery of the coke market, the operating rate will remain relatively stable in the near future, and the supply of crude benzene will be relatively stable in the future. In terms of demand, hydrogenated benzene enterprises have been boosted by the industrial chain, with recent profit recovery and a slight increase in operating rates, indicating good demand for crude benzene. Overall, boosted by the overall rise of the industrial chain, the crude benzene market has maintained a stable, medium to strong trend in recent times.

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 28th, the average market price of methyl acetate was 4462 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.71% compared to the beginning of the month.

In terms of cost

Methanol: Domestic methanol prices rose first and then fell this month. On May 28th, the price of methanol was 2794 yuan/ton, and on May 1st, the price of methanol was 2651 yuan/ton, an overall increase of 5.39%. After the holiday, maintenance of methanol plants and unexpected shutdowns of some plants have led to a tight overall supply, mainly driving the upward movement of the mainland market. In mid month, the situation abroad was unstable, and the arrival volume of methanol at ports was affected. The inventory in ports and mainland China was relatively low, and downstream procurement was still in demand. The tight supply situation led to a significant increase in the methanol market. At the end of the month, the supply at the port gradually resumed, and the equipment in the northwest production area gradually resumed. The overall wait-and-see sentiment in the methanol market was strong, and prices fell from high levels.

Acetic acid: The domestic price of acetic acid rose first and then fell this month. On May 28th, the price of acetic acid was 3100 yuan/ton, and on May 1st, the price of acetic acid was 3250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.6% from the beginning of the month. In the first half of the month, the supply and demand of acetic acid were strong, inventory continued to decline, and prices remained strong, with a mid month increase of 4.49%. However, as downstream acetic acid companies resisted high prices, the market price of acetic acid gradually fell in the second half of the month.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, in the first half of this month, the price of dual raw materials increased, supporting the upward trend of methyl acetate prices. In the middle and second half of the month, raw materials fell, and the methyl ester market remained stagnant. Downstream markets were mostly bearish. Given the difficulty in improving short-term fundamentals, it is expected that the methyl acetate market will operate weakly in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of Business Society, as of May 28th, the price of high-quality power type lithium iron phosphate is 43350 yuan/ton, and the price of energy storage type lithium iron phosphate is 42066.67 yuan/ton. This week, the overall weak operation of the lithium iron phosphate factory was the main trend, with a stable and weak price trend. Upstream iron phosphate prices remained strong, while lithium carbonate prices fell weakly with limited growth. The cost support for lithium iron phosphate was weak, and the supply and demand balance of the lithium iron phosphate market was mainly in the short term.

2、 Market analysis

In terms of cost: This week, upstream lithium carbonate was mainly weakly operated, with increased production and high inventory levels, resulting in continuous market supply pressure. In addition, some manufacturers have a strong willingness to lower prices, leading to a continued downward shift in spot prices. It is expected that lithium carbonate will maintain a stable, moderate, and weak trend in the short term.

3、 Future Market Forecast

In summary, from a cost perspective, upstream prices have risen and fallen, while lithium iron phosphate prices maintain their current trend. Currently, inventory is operating at a high level, and companies have a clear willingness to lower prices. Inventory reduction is the main focus, and it is expected that lithium iron phosphate will maintain its current trend in the short term. The price of high-quality power grade lithium iron phosphate will remain around 43612 yuan/ton, and the price of energy storage type lithium iron phosphate will remain around 42300 yuan/ton.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, palm oleic acid remained stable this week. As of May 24th, the mainstream price of palm oleic acid (purity ≥ 70) in China was 11466.67 yuan/ton, which remained unchanged from last week and increased by 0.29% compared to April 1st.

2、 Market analysis

Cost side:

Starting from mid May, palm oil has risen, and the demand for summer oil consumption has weakened. The bearish sentiment has suppressed the continuous upward momentum of the palm oil market. After the rise, it gradually experienced a pullback. Due to the fact that Malaysian palm oil is in the production cycle and the external market is not good, the overall palm oil market has slightly fluctuated and risen. As of May 24th, the average price of palm oil in the market exceeded 7900 yuan/ton.

Supply and demand side:

This week, the load rate of the oleic acid industry was at 4.6 levels, slightly lower than last week. There is abundant supply on site, and downstream oleic acid amide prices remain unchanged from last week. The willingness to purchase raw materials is not high, and transactions are weak, with many orders being for essential goods. Market demand has weak support for prices.

3、 Future Market Forecast

This week, the market for palm oleic acid has stabilized. The overall palm oil market in the upstream has fluctuated slightly and increased, with some support for the cost of palm oleic acid. Downstream demand enterprises have weak purchasing willingness and weak transaction volume; It is expected that the price of palm oleic acid will be weak in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the butyl rubber market has stabilized this week. As of May 24th, the mainstream price of domestic butyl rubber (1751) was 17600 yuan/ton, which is unchanged from last week and a decrease of 260 yuan or 1.46% compared to May 1st.

2、 Market analysis

Cost side:

Cost side: The isobutene market has seen a narrow decline this week, with the mainstream price of isobutene (≥ 99, loose water) in China as of May 23 at 12050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan or 1.23% compared to last week. The upstream MTBE market continued to operate weakly, with international oil prices falling narrowly overall, weakening support for the isobutene market. It is expected that the recent isobutene market will be weak and mainly consolidation.

Supply and demand side:

The power consumption of downstream steel tires has slightly increased compared to last week, with a load rate of around 6.5 floors for the entire steel tire industry and around 8 floors for the semi steel tire industry. This week, the steel tire industry is operating at a high level, and some companies in the steel tire industry have parking and maintenance plans. The load rate of the steel tire industry will decrease. The demand for raw materials has decreased.

3、 Future Market Forecast

The market for butyl rubber has stabilized this week. The narrow decline in the upstream isobutene market has weakened support for the butyl rubber market. On the supply and demand side, imported goods are gradually arriving at the port to fill in inventory. With the arrival of summer, butyl rubber is facing seasonal production reductions. In the downstream steel tire industry, with maintenance plans in place, the industry’s load rate may decrease, leading to a decrease in demand for upstream raw materials. The trend performance under the long short game is not obvious, and it is expected that the recent butyl rubber market will mainly fluctuate and consolidate.

The domestic phenol market continues to be weak, mainly due to the sluggish demand and difficult to change atmosphere. According to monitoring data from Business Society, the market offer on May 17th was 7850 yuan/ton, and on May 22nd it was 7725 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.59%.

The factories have lowered their listing prices, with Sinopec East China Phenol executing 7700 yuan/ton and Sinopec North China Phenol Factory executing 7650-7700 yuan/ton. The price of Lihua Yiwei Yuanphenol has been executed at 7700 yuan/ton, and factories have lowered their listing prices. The market’s wait-and-see atmosphere has increased, and there is a clear sentiment of buying up but not falling at the end, resulting in insufficient trading on the market.

On May 22nd, the quotations for phenol in various markets nationwide are as follows:

Region/ Quotation/ Daily fluctuations

East China region/ 7630./ 0

Shandong region/ 7700./ -100

The surrounding areas of Yanshan/ 7700./ -100

South China region/ 7820./ -80

From the perspective of Business Society, the price of raw material pure benzene has fallen, with a transaction price in East China at 9000 yuan/ton, a slight drop of 80 yuan/ton in a single day. Crude oil has fallen within the day, and the market for styrene has loosened, indicating a significant change in industry sentiment. Downstream bisphenol A has slightly increased, with a reference price in East China ranging from 9700 to 9800 yuan/ton. However, the industry operating rate has not changed much, and the demand for raw materials is stable. It is expected that the phenol market will operate weakly, and attention will continue to be paid to the supply and demand fundamentals.