1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, after the continuous rise of stearic acid prices in March, there are now signs of a pullback. As of March 29, the mainstream price of domestic stearic acid (1840) was 17700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.58% from last week, an increase of 1.78% from March 1, and an increase of 4.62% from January.

2、 Market analysis

Cost side: In March, palm oil prices first rose and then fell, with the highest point overall rising by nearly 7%, and the average price rising to 8400 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the external futures market weakened, and the oil palm oil futures market fell one after another, with spot prices mainly following the downward trend. The average price of palm oil in the market has dropped to 8260 yuan/ton, a decrease of over 3%,

Demand side: The PVC spot market prices have fluctuated this month and ended with a downward trend. The price range is between 5608 yuan/ton and 5580 yuan/ton. From the demand side, although domestic demand has basically recovered to pre holiday normal, the overall performance is still slightly weak. The market inquiry enthusiasm is average, and downstream markets are mostly wait-and-see, just in need of goods

3、 Future Market Forecast

The overall performance of upstream stearic acid in March was still good, with solid support provided by the cost side at the beginning of the month. At the end of the month, the external futures market weakened, and the support from the cost side gradually weakened. The import volume of stearic acid in February was 18337.57 tons, and the imported goods continued to arrive at the port, while inventory remained abundant. However, downstream factories have shown some resistance towards high priced raw materials during procurement. It is expected that the stearic acid market will remain strong in April due to the impact of lower costs.

Recently (3.20-3.31), the market price of butadiene rubber has been weak and declining. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of March 31, the price of butadiene rubber in the East China region was 13610 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.37% from 13940 yuan/ton on March 20. The high price of raw material butadiene provides support for the cost of butadiene rubber; The supply of butadiene rubber has slightly declined; Downstream tire production remained stable at a high level, and caution was exercised in the procurement of butadiene rubber. The price of butadiene rubber surged significantly and then fell back.

Recently (3.20-3.31), the price of butadiene has stabilized at a high level, with strong cost support for butadiene rubber. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of March 20th, the price of butadiene was 11532 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.03% from March 12th’s 11528 yuan/ton.

Recently (3.20-3.31), the production of butadiene rubber has slightly decreased.

Demand side: In the near future (3.20-3.31), downstream tire production has remained stable, providing some support for butadiene rubber. It is understood that as of late March, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was around 790%; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region is close to 70%; But in the middle of the month, the price of butadiene rubber increased significantly, and downstream consumers resisted the high price, resulting in a slowdown in procurement efforts.

Market forecast: Business Society analysts believe that the price of raw material butadiene is still at a high level, and the cost support for butadiene rubber is strong; While some devices are being shut down and reduced in load, there are still other maintenance plans in the later stage, and the expectation of starting production of butadiene rubber is further reduced; The cost and commencement of production support the market for butadiene rubber. However, the current downstream resistance to the high priced supply of butadiene rubber has slowed down, putting pressure on the butadiene rubber market. Overall, the current butadiene rubber market is expected to maintain a high consolidation level in the short term.

Recently (3.18-3.27), the market situation of nitrile rubber has slightly improved. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of March 27th, the price of nitrile rubber was 15450 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.16% from 15425 yuan/ton on March 18th. The high price consolidation of raw material butadiene and a slight increase in the price of acrylonitrile have continued to support the cost of nitrile rubber; Downstream factories often purchase according to demand, with weak support from the demand side for nitrile rubber. General inventory of nitrile rubber enterprises; Alantai Rubber’s 30000 ton/year nitrile rubber plant is scheduled to be shut down for maintenance in early April, and the supply of nitrile rubber is expected to further decline. As of March 27th, the mainstream market price for Lanhua 3305 in East China is around 14500-14600 yuan/ton; The mainstream market price for Russian nitrile 3665 is around 14400-14600 yuan/ton; The mainstream market price for Nandi Nitrile 1052 is around 17000-17500 yuan/ton.

Recently (3.18-3.27), the high price of raw material butadiene has been consolidated, and the price of acrylonitrile has slightly increased. The cost of nitrile rubber continues to support. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of March 27th, the price of butadiene was 11525 yuan/ton, which is 0.07% lower than the price on March 18th; As of March 27th, the price of acrylonitrile was 9862 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.33% compared to the price of 9637 yuan/ton on March 18th.

Recently (3.18-3.27), the overall stability of domestic nitrile rubber plants has been achieved, and some plants have plans for shutdown and maintenance in the later stage.

Recently, the production of downstream nitrile rubber hoses in China has remained around 6.2%, while the production of insulation foam has slightly decreased to around 6.3%. The demand is facing weak support from the nitrile rubber market.

Market forecast: Business Society nitrile analysts believe that currently, the high cost of butadiene and acrylonitrile raw materials for nitrile rubber is supported by high prices; Downstream construction is temporarily stable, inquiries are cautious, maintaining weak support for nitrile rubber; The supply of nitrile rubber is expected to decline in the later stage, and it is expected that the nitrile rubber market will fluctuate and consolidate in the later stage.

According to data monitored by Business Society, carbon black prices have been weak this week. As of the 25th, the domestic N220 carbon black market price was 10133 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw materials, the coal tar market continued to be weak this week. As of the 17th, the price of coal tar was 4512 yuan/ton, a decrease of over 200 yuan/ton compared to March 1st. Continuous production restrictions by coke companies have led to six rounds of decline in coke prices, increased losses for coke companies, and low operating loads, resulting in tight supply in the high-temperature coal tar market; However, the downstream coal tar market is weak, and terminal procurement attitudes are negative, forming a strong pressure on coal tar. The overall demand support is insufficient, resulting in a decline in coal tar prices and weakening support for the cost of carbon black.

Construction status: Most carbon black enterprises have maintained stable construction this week.

In terms of terminals, there are sufficient domestic and foreign sales orders in the tire industry, and the downstream tire industry has a strong atmosphere of speculation, which has played a certain promoting role in sales. However, due to the fact that most merchants have already reserved inventory in advance, the actual transactions in the replacement market are not active, and the procurement of raw material carbon black is limited to rigid demand.

Import and export data from January to February: According to customs data, China imported 26000 tons of carbon black in January 2024, an increase of 38.98% year-on-year and 8.28% month on month. In February 2024, China imported 22400 tons of carbon black, an increase of 10.17% year-on-year and a decrease of 13.84% month on month; From January to February 2024, China imported a total of 48400 tons of carbon black, an increase of 23.97% compared to the same period last year, with imports increasing by approximately 9400 tons.

In January 2024, the top three regions of carbon black import quantity are Russia, South Korea and Taiwan, China; They account for 70.9%, 7.6%, and 4.7% of the total import volume, respectively. The top three regions in terms of carbon black import quantity in February 2024 are Russia, Belgium, and South Korea; They account for 73.7%, 7.3%, and 5.2% of the total import volume, respectively.

According to customs data, China’s carbon black exports in January 2024 were approximately 99400 tons, an increase of 97.35% year-on-year and 31.95% month on month. In February 2024, China’s carbon black exports were approximately 70600 tons, an increase of 47.65% year-on-year and a decrease of 28.96% month on month. From January to February 2024, China’s cumulative exports of carbon black reached 170000 tons, an increase of 73.14% compared to the same period last year, and the export volume increased by approximately 71800 tons.

The top three regions in terms of carbon black export quantity in January 2024 are Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesia; They account for 35.2%, 20.7%, and 10.9% of the total export volume, respectively. The top three regions in terms of carbon black export quantity in February 2024 are Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesia; They account for 31.9%, 19.3%, and 12.8% of the total export volume, respectively.

Looking ahead to the future, due to the decline in the price of high-temperature coal tar market, the support for the cost of carbon black is gradually weakening; At the same time, downstream tire industry merchants generally have a mentality of buying up rather than falling. Currently, there is a strong resistance to carbon black prices, and inquiries are mainly focused on price pressure. Therefore, it is expected that the carbon black market will generally show a weak operating trend in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the price of baking soda was weak this week, with an average market price of 2383.4 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 2361.2 yuan/ton on the weekend, a decrease of 0.93% and an increase of 8.56% year-on-year. On March 21, the baking soda commodity index was 156.72, a decrease of 1.38 points from yesterday, a decrease of 33.55% from the highest point in the cycle of 235.84 points (2021-11-10), and an increase of 77.55% from the lowest point of 88.27 points on December 22, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2020 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the price of baking soda is running weakly, and downstream markets are purchasing on demand in the near future. Currently, the price of baking soda in China is running weakly, with the mainstream market quotation of around 1900-2400 yuan/ton. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of soda ash has been weak this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 2040 yuan/ton, while the weekend market price was 1980 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.94%, a decrease of 28.52% compared to the same period last year.

Analysts from Business Society believe that the price of baking soda has been weak in recent times, while the upstream raw material soda ash has temporarily stabilized. Downstream pharmaceutical, textile, food and other sectors of baking soda have recently made more purchases according to demand, replenishing inventory in an appropriate amount, without any positive support. It is expected that baking soda prices will mainly fluctuate in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

Recently (3.5-3.18), the market for trichloromethane in Shandong Province has initially risen and then stabilized. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of March 18th, the price of trichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2780 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.25% from 2666 yuan/ton on March 5th. In early March, due to the continuous recovery of downstream production and positive inquiries, the price of trichloromethane significantly increased. Since mid March, on the one hand, downstream stocking has basically come to an end, and terminal procurement performance has been mediocre. On the other hand, raw material prices have remained stable with little movement, and the cost support for trichloromethane has slowed down. The trichloromethane market has remained stable with narrow fluctuations.

This week (3.5-3.18), the domestic supply of methane chlorides has slightly increased.

Recently (3.5-3.18), the price of raw material methanol has fluctuated and stabilized, while the price of liquid chlorine has remained stable. There is still support for the cost of dichloromethane. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of March 18th, the spot price of methanol was 2701 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.37% from 2691 yuan/ton on March 5th, and the highest point in the cycle was 2750 yuan/ton. As of March 18th, the acceptance price of liquid chlorine tank trucks in Shandong region has remained around 300 yuan/ton.

Recently (3.5-3.18), the refrigerant market has seen a rapid rebound in shipments after the holiday. The expected production volume of air conditioning enterprises in March is around 20-22 million units. In addition, the increase in export demand orders has provided strong support for the refrigerant market. Refrigerant enterprises have mainly consumed inventory recently, and inquiries for trichloromethane have been flat. Demand has slightly weakened in the face of trichloromethane support.

Business Society methane chloride data analysts believe that raw material prices have narrow consolidation, and there is still support for the cost of trichloromethane; The downstream refrigerant industry is still in the peak season of production, but in the short term, inventory consumption is the main factor, supporting the demand for trichloromethane slightly weaker than in the early stage. Overall, the high level consolidation of trichloromethane market is the main trend in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of March 18, 2024, the average price of epoxy propane in the domestic market is based on 9150 yuan/ton, which is basically unchanged compared to March 11.

Last week (3.11-3.15), the epoxy propane market remained stagnant and mainly operated through consolidation. Starting from the weekend, manufacturers raised prices and dealers offered stable prices. On March 18th, the reference factory price for Shandong epoxy propane was around 9000-9050 yuan.

Cost side: According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the average price of propylene in Shandong on March 11th was 6992.60 yuan/ton, and on March 15th it was 6948.60 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.63% during the cycle. Recently, the price of propylene raw materials has been declining, and the price of liquid chlorine raw materials has fluctuated weakly. The cost support in the epoxy propane market is weak.

Supply and demand side: At the beginning of last week, inventory on the supply side was at a median level, and downstream purchasing intentions were insufficient, resulting in a weak market stalemate. In the middle of the week, the downstream followed up moderately, and factory shipments were still acceptable. Some inventory pressures were slightly relieved, but the market purchasing mentality was cautious. With price reductions in some regions, market shipments rebounded again, and factories offered high prices over the weekend. On Monday of this week, downstream follow-up was average, and the market wait-and-see atmosphere was strong.

The epoxy propane analyst from Business Society believes that the current market for raw materials propylene and liquid chlorine is weak, and short-term cost support may be limited. The demand side mainly follows up on demand, and factory shipments are average. It is expected that in the short term, the epoxy propane market may remain stagnant and operate, and more attention should be paid to market news guidance.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8207 yuan/ton on March 11, and the average price on March 15 was 8195 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 0.14% in the quotation during this period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic price of LDPE (2426H) was 9237 yuan/ton on March 11th, and the average price on March 15th was 9237 yuan/ton, with prices remaining unchanged during the period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic price of HDPE (5000S) was 8475 yuan/ton on March 11th, and the average price on March 15th was 8450 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 0.29% in the quotation during this period.

This week, polyethylene has undergone a narrow adjustment with relatively small fluctuations. The international oil price fluctuates strongly, and the cost side supports the polyethylene market; Domestic polyethylene inventory supply is sufficient, and there is significant pressure on the supply side, causing petrochemical enterprises to face pressure to destock. Downstream factories are gradually increasing their production, but they are mainly focused on rigid demand, with insufficient procurement efforts, limited new orders, and insufficient boost in demand.

On March 15th, the polyethylene l2405 contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange opened at 8172 yuan and closed at 8280 yuan, up 135 yuan, with a maximum of 8290 yuan and a minimum of 8172 yuan, up 1.66%.

Polyethylene supply is loose, and currently there is insufficient support on the demand side. As the peak season for plastic film production approaches, there is a positive expectation on the demand side. In the short term, it is expected that polyethylene will fluctuate and rise narrowly.

According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the price of calcium chloride remained stable this week. As of March 14th, the market price of 94% anhydrous calcium chloride was at an average market price of 1357 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week.

The prices in various regions are as follows: the reference price in Shandong is 1250.00 yuan/ton; The reference price for the Northwest market is 1250.00 yuan/ton; The reference price for the central and southern regions is 1750 yuan/ton.

Trend of raw material hydrochloric acid:

According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, in terms of raw materials, the price of soda ash is weak. Although there is still a slight increase in the price of raw material hydrochloric acid, the increase is difficult to transmit to the calcium chloride market.

Downstream cement:

In early March, the downstream cement industry of calcium chloride in East China was affected by cloudy and rainy weather, resulting in poor construction of construction sites and mixing plants, slow recovery of market demand, and cold downstream procurement.

Some domestic calcium chloride factories have high inventory, and the industry is operating at a low level. There has been no significant change in the overall supply of calcium chloride in the industry, and there is no supply pressure. The domestic market atmosphere is dull, mostly driven by demand for goods, and various factors lead to price stability.

Overall, the expected changes in supply and demand are not significant. It is expected that the price of calcium chloride will continue to be weak next week.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the domestic PTMEG price has slightly decreased this week. As of March 12th, the PTMEG price was 20933 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 0.94%.

In terms of equipment

At present, the overall operating rate of the domestic industry is stable around 85%.

Upstream aspect

From the upstream raw material market of PTMEG, the market for 1,4-butanediol has remained stable this week, with a price of 9428 yuan/ton. Recently, some devices have undergone maintenance and replacement, but due to the accumulation of inventory during the Spring Festival, the current supply is still sufficient.

At present, the price of maleic anhydride is 7110 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 0.25%. The supply is relatively sufficient, and the market has a strong wait-and-see attitude, with limited new orders signed.

In terms of demand

The main downstream spandex price is 31000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.4% year-on-year from the beginning of the month. The overall demand in the tourism industry is generally following up, suppressing the trend of raw materials.

Future Market Forecast

Cost support is average, spot trading is light, and the overall market situation is stagnant and consolidating. It is expected that PTMEG prices will continue to operate weakly.