1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market on February 24th was 963 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.66% compared to the average price of 938 yuan/ton on February 17th.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic ammonium sulfate market prices have shown a strong upward trend. The operating rate of coking enterprises remains stable, and the operating rate of their internal equipment is at a high level. Downstream urgent procurement, stable demand for urea, and strong market transaction atmosphere. As the price of ammonium sulfate continues to rise, downstream procurement tends to be cautious, and distributors operate cautiously. As of February 24th, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 950 yuan/ton. Domestic grade ammonium sulfate, the mainstream ex factory quotation in Shandong region is around 965-995 yuan/ton.

3、 Future forecast

An ammonium sulfate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the recent trend of ammonium sulfate market has stabilized after rising, and the overall trading atmosphere in the market is good. At present, the market demand is good, and downstream demand for replenishment is urgent. As the price of ammonium sulfate continues to rise, the market’s cautious attitude increases. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic ammonium sulfate market will be dominated by strong price consolidation and operation.

According to the analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of February 21st, the benchmark price of hydrofluoric acid in Shengyi Society was 11500.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of the month.

Supply side: The market situation has remained stable this week, with enterprises actively starting production, and some regions experiencing tight supply of goods.

On the raw material side: The price of raw fluorite remained stable this week, but the cost remained under high pressure. The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, national departments need to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. Although the rectification action is coming to an end, the affected area has not narrowed. The difficulty of operating fluorite mines has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. The supply of fluorite sources is still tight. According to the analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of February 21st, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s fluorite was 3628.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.35% compared to the beginning of this month (3616.25 yuan/ton).

Recently, the price trend of raw material sulfuric acid in the market has risen, providing favorable support for the hydrofluoric acid market. According to the analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of February 20th, the benchmark price of sulfuric acid in Shengyi Society was 430.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 11.69% compared to the beginning of this month (385.00 yuan/ton).

Demand side: Downstream refrigerant quotas are abundant, and downstream refrigerant companies may increase their procurement of hydrofluoric acid. Some companies have a strong reluctance to sell, resulting in price increases and strong support from the demand side for refrigerants.

Market forecast: The recent rise in raw material prices has driven the hydrofluoric acid market to a stronger trend. It is expected that the hydrofluoric acid market will continue to operate steadily and strongly in the future, and more attention should be paid to the news of leading enterprises and market supply and demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of lithium carbonate slightly declined in mid February. As of February 17th, the average price of domestic battery grade lithium carbonate was 78100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.89% from 78800 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and a decrease of 2.11% from 79780 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; The average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate is 74800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.09% from 76400 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year and a decrease of 2.35% from 76600 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

The significant growth on the supply side has driven down prices

After the holiday, the news of the resumption of production projects by top enterprises in Yichun area has been basically implemented, and our company has also analyzed the incident:

Business Society: What is the impact of Ningde Times’ resumption of lithium mine production in Jiangxi on the price of lithium carbonate

It is expected that the production of lithium carbonate at the end of lithium mica will significantly increase after mid February.

In terms of imports, the export volume of lithium carbonate from Chile in January 2025 was 25600 tons, of which 19100 tons were exported to China, a month on month increase of 43.1% and a year-on-year increase of 94.7%. It is expected that the domestic arrival volume will further increase in February and March.

Weak demand with no significant growth

The production of positive electrode materials and battery terminals decreased in February. The month on month growth of positive electrode and battery production in March was within the range of 10% -20%, but due to the small production base in February, there was no substantial year-on-year increase in production in March.

Business Society’s lithium carbonate data analyst believes that the current supply and demand of lithium carbonate are weak, with prices falling and no positive news in the market. It is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from February 5th to 14th (as of 15:00), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic market first increased from 2653 yuan/ton and then fell to 2578 yuan/ton, with a price decline of 2.83% during the cycle, a month on month decline of 5.84%, and a year-on-year decline of 2.34%. The domestic methanol market rose and then fell back. The overall inventory of methanol enterprises shows a trend of destocking, but due to the impact of transportation capacity, some regions have seen a slight increase in inventory. In addition, traditional downstream industries are still in the recovery stage, which makes them somewhat resistant to high priced inventory.

As of the close on February 14th, the closing price of methanol futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has fallen. The main contract 2505 for methanol futures opened at 2539 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2561 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2523 yuan/ton. It closed at 2526 yuan/ton in the closing session, a decrease of 34 yuan or 1.33% from the previous trading day’s settlement. The trading volume is 615633 lots, the position is 780601 lots, and the daily increase is 25560 lots.

On the cost side, the current supply of thermal coal in the market is gradually increasing, with prices steadily decreasing and port inventories accumulating at high levels. Downstream demand growth is weak. In the foreseeable future, the thermal coal market will still face significant downward pressure. The cost of methanol is influenced by negative factors.

Demand side, downstream acetic acid: reduced demand for acetic acid; Downstream formaldehyde: The demand for formaldehyde has increased significantly; Downstream MTBE: MTBE demand increases; Downstream dimethyl ether: Demand for dimethyl ether is increasing. Downstream chloride: There is little change in demand; The impact of methanol demand is mixed.

On the supply side, the overall loss exceeds the recovery, resulting in a decrease in capacity utilization. The supply of methanol is affected by favorable factors.

In terms of external markets, as of the close of February 13th, the closing price of CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was 361.50-362.50 US dollars/ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market was 113.00 to 114.00 cents per gallon, down 1 cent per gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 335.50-336.50 euros/ton, up 1 euro/ton.

Future forecast: Traditional downstream production will continue to increase, with attention paid to fluctuations in freight rates and downstream stocking. The methanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the domestic methanol spot market will mainly experience narrow fluctuations.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the aggregated MDI market has been operating at a high level recently. The mainstream price for Shanghai goods (44V20, M20S, 5005) is 18100-18200 yuan/ton, while the mainstream price for domestic goods (PM200) is 18300 yuan/ton. Recently, domestic facilities have been running smoothly, foreign maintenance plans have been introduced one after another, and mainstream factories have announced price increases, further supporting the MDI market. As the Spring Festival approaches, on-site purchases and sales have returned to a flat state. It is expected that the short-term aggregated MDI market will continue to operate strongly, and we will closely monitor changes in future news.

The market price of epichlorohydrin first decreased and then increased in January. According to the monitoring and analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of January 20th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epichlorohydrin was 9025.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.28% compared to the beginning of this month.

Price influencing factors:

On the raw material side, prices of propylene and liquid chlorine have fluctuated, supported by high prices of glycerol. Overall, there is still pressure on the cost side. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of January 20th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 7008.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.52% compared to the beginning of this month (6835.75 yuan/ton).

Supply side: At the beginning of this month, the equipment was restarted one after another, and with the release of some new production capacity in Shandong, the market supply increased significantly. The market price competition was fierce, and some factories mainly focused on shipping, resulting in a decline in prices; In the middle of the month, some areas experienced equipment load operation and shutdown, with an overall operating rate of about 50%, resulting in a tight supply of goods. In addition, downstream suppliers actively stocked up before the holiday, and demand improved, leading to a gradual increase in prices.

Downstream demand side: As the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream epoxy resin market is in a low season of demand. In addition, some units are shut down for maintenance, resulting in a decline in overall production capacity and output, which makes it difficult to form favorable support for epichlorohydrin. Market demand is weak, trading atmosphere is cold, prices remain relatively stable, and the main focus is on stocking up for essential needs.

Market forecast: Analysts from Shengyi Society believe that as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream demand will decrease, but cost support still exists. In addition, some supply side enterprises have a low operating rate of about 50% overall, and low-priced goods in the market are gradually decreasing. Traders’ quotes are firm, and it is expected that the market price of epichlorohydrin will remain stable in the near future. More attention still needs to be paid to changes in market supply and demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the TDI market in East China has been operating strongly this week, with a broad upward trend. As of January 17th, the average market price in East China was 14000 yuan/ton, and on January 13th, the average price was 13500 yuan/ton. Within the week, it rose by 3.7% and fell by 16.67% year-on-year.

This week, there have been continuous positive news in the TDI market, with a significant boost in news coverage. There have been frequent price adjustments in factories during the week, with the latest TDI execution price of 14100 yuan/ton for a large factory in Shanghai, an increase of 800 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. The prices of ASEAN Wanhua MDI and Wanhua TDI will be increased by $200/ton. The TDI distribution channel of a large northern factory has a fixed price of 14000 yuan/ton on January 20th, with discounted supply. The tight supply situation on site has not improved, and the supplier’s mentality is good, with a strong atmosphere of high prices. Downstream market entry is cautious, with insufficient stocking willingness and a lack of actual order support for high priced goods.

Supply side: The operation of Gansu Yinguang’s equipment is unstable, resulting in reduced load operation. The 150000 ton TDI plant of Hanhua in South Korea is scheduled to undergo routine shutdown and maintenance in mid February 2025, with a planned maintenance period of one month. Other devices maintain medium to high load operation.

Cost wise: Upstream toluene has recently seen a significant increase, providing stronger support for TDI.

According to the analysis of the future market, the TDI data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the current TDI market supply filling is slow, and some factories prioritize export orders. Considering that TDI prices have risen to a high level, it is expected that the TDI market will mainly digest the increase in the short term and closely monitor changes in market supply and demand.

1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Business Society, as of January 10th, the average quotation price of domestic high-quality DMF enterprises was 4250 yuan/ton. DMF prices continued to rise this week, and prices remained stable compared to the same period last week, with little fluctuation.

2、 Market analysis

This week, DMF prices have remained stable and are approaching the end of the year. Downstream demand for DMF is not high, and companies have gradually stopped production and production, with limited preparation for holidays.

In terms of cost, the upstream methanol production rate is around 86%, with an increase in supply and average demand. Inventory shipments are smooth. As of now, the production profit of coal to methanol in Northwest China is around 30 yuan/ton, and the operating load of the domestic methanol market has increased.

3、 Future forecast

DMF analysts from Shengyi Society believe that currently DMF inventory is being shipped normally, prices are running steadily with minimal fluctuations, and it is expected that the DMF market will maintain its current trend in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash continued to decline in December. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of light soda ash was 1556 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average market price was around 528 yuan/ton. The price decreased by 28 yuan/ton during the month, a decrease of 1.80%. On December 31st, the Business Society’s light soda ash index was 78.36, a decrease of 0.51 points from yesterday, a decrease of 58.56% from the cycle’s highest point of 189.10 points (2021-11-07), and an increase of 24.09% from the lowest point of 63.15 points on November 18, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the soda ash market has been weakly declining this month. The utilization rate of on-site soda ash production capacity remains high, the market supply is sufficient, and the sales pressure of spot soda ash factories is high. Downstream glass prices are relatively strong and consolidating, but mainly consuming inventory, the demand for soda ash is not high, and the market purchase is limited. Market trading is poor, and the focus of soda ash transactions continues to shift downwards.

As of December 31, 2024, the mainstream market price of light soda ash in East China is around 1450-1550 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; The mainstream market price of light soda ash in Central China is around 1350-1550 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 30-50 yuan/ton; The mainstream market price of light soda ash in North China is around 1550-1630 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 50 yuan/ton.

On the demand side: According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the price trend of glass has fluctuated and risen this month. The average market price of glass at the beginning of the month was 16.20 yuan/square meter, and the average market price at the end of the month was 16.40 yuan/square meter, an increase of 1.23%. The capacity utilization rate of the glass market has decreased, and the spot market is fluctuating at a high level. Downstream market entry follows suit according to demand, and the trading atmosphere in the market is still acceptable. The glass inventory has increased, and the price market is consolidating.

According to the price monitoring of Shengyi Society, the price comparison index of Shengyi Society’s soda ash and glass products on December 31 was 79.32, a decrease of 0.52 points from yesterday, a decrease of 29.41% from the highest point of 112.37 points during the cycle (October 6, 2023), and an increase of 4.03% from the lowest point of 76.25 points on November 17, 2024. (Note: Cycle refers to January 1, 2012 to present)

Market forecast: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of light soda ash has been stable and slightly weak in the near future. The downstream glass market price is stable, but the support for soda ash is limited. The utilization rate of soda ash production capacity on the supply side is high, and the inventory of spot alkali plants is sufficient. The sales pressure of enterprises is high, and there is a lack of good market conditions. It is expected that the price of soda ash will be weak in the later stage, depending on the downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the overall TDI market in East China rose in December, with a step-by-step increase. At the beginning of the month, the average TDI market price was 12650 yuan/ton, and on December 31, the TDI price was 12850 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.58% during the month and a decrease of 23.51% year-on-year.

In December, the TDI market in East China was significantly affected by the supply side. Since the beginning of the month, mainstream factories have been undergoing maintenance and temporary shutdowns, resulting in a temporary shortage of spot goods and slow filling of TDI sources, leading to a rise in prices. Mainstream factories have a strong willingness to raise prices. In mid December, with the resumption of equipment operation and an increase in production load, downstream resistance to high priced sources of goods became apparent, resulting in a slight decline in TDI prices. Subsequently, the market stabilized and operated until the end of the month.

Supply side: Shanghai Kesi Chuang restarted on December 11th, Yantai Wanhua stopped on December 20th, and restarted on December 26th. The TDI units of Xinjiang Juli and Fujian Wanhua are operating unstably and will start operating at medium to high loads at the end of the month.

The upstream toluene market fluctuated and rose. As of December 30th, the domestic average price of toluene was around 6052 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.33% from the price of 5800 yuan/ton on December 1st. The overall trend of crude oil fluctuated and rose within the month, driving an improvement in the atmosphere of the spot market. The demand for gasoline in Shandong has improved, and the purchasing enthusiasm of diversified enterprises has also rebounded to some extent. The overall ex factory prices of refineries in Shandong have risen, and the atmosphere in the spot market is good.

According to the analysis of the future market, the TDI data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that some factories experienced a decline in settlement in December, which led to an unstable focus of the TDI market, mediocre downstream demand performance, mainly completed contract customers, and a lack of new orders. It is expected that the TDI market will operate weakly in the short term.