According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic price trend of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid slightly declined in February. As of the weekend, the market price of hydrofluoric acid was 10016.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.66% from the beginning of the week price of 10083.33 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year increase of 1.91%.

Supply side: In February, the domestic price of hydrofluoric acid slightly decreased, and some manufacturers started operating normally during the Spring Festival holiday. In addition, downstream demand follow-up was insufficient, resulting in high inventory of hydrofluoric acid manufacturers. The mainstream price of hydrofluoric acid negotiated in various regions of China is 9800-10200 yuan/ton, and there are still devices parked for market. The spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is sufficient, and the order situation for hydrofluoric acid from manufacturers is not good. The production of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid is more than 50%, The market price of hydrofluoric acid has slightly declined.

Cost side: In February, the domestic price of fluorite fluctuated, with an average price of 3350 yuan/ton as of the end of the month, an increase of 0.19% from the beginning of the week’s price of 3343.75 yuan/ton. The game situation in the domestic fluorite industry still exists, and overall, the operating rate of enterprises remains low. The main reason is that upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be phased out, and in terms of new mines, mineral investigation work is still difficult, In addition, fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental requirements, and some mines are conducting safety hazard inspections. The difficulty of operating fluorite mines has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has restricted the operation of fluorite enterprises. In addition, most manufacturers are on vacation before and after the Spring Festival, which has affected the market price of hydrofluoric acid and has not changed much.

In February, the price trend of sulfuric acid in the market increased. As of the end of the month, the average domestic sulfuric acid price was 203.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.75% compared to the initial price of 187.5 yuan/ton. The upstream sulfur market of sulfuric acid is on the rise, and the cost price is rising. Downstream customers of sulfuric acid are more enthusiastic about purchasing sulfuric acid, and the price trend of sulfuric acid is rising. As a result, the decline in the domestic hydrofluoric acid market is limited.

On the demand side, the market for downstream refrigerant products has increased, and the operating rate of the refrigerant industry has not changed much. Refrigerant R22 manufacturers have raised their factory prices due to quota issues, and distributors have been more active in purchasing. The price trend of R22 has increased, and the mainstream of negotiations is between 24000-27000 yuan/ton. The quota cycle in the refrigerant market has begun, and it is difficult for enterprises to change their reluctance to sell. The quota for R134a in China is relatively tight, and some manufacturers have raised their factory prices. Currently, the market quotation for R134a refrigerant is mostly in the range of 31000-33000 yuan/ton. The overall transaction in the refrigerant industry is still good, but the production in the refrigerant industry remains sluggish, and there is no actual improvement in the procurement of hydrofluoric acid. The hydrofluoric acid market has slightly declined.

Market forecast: In the near future, upstream raw material fluorite enterprises will gradually resume work, and there will be strong bullish sentiment on the market. In addition, sulfuric acid prices are showing an upward trend; In March, the downstream refrigerant industry gradually entered the peak production season, and overall, favorable factors still exist. There are also opportunities for a rebound in the price of hydrofluoric acid in the later stage.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic aggregated MDI market rose in February. From February 1st to 29th, the domestic aggregated MDI market price increased from 16200 yuan/ton to 1578317050 yuan/ton, with a monthly price increase of 5.25% and a year-on-year price increase of 2.96%.

At the beginning of the month, the domestic aggregated MDI market showed a strong follow-up. As the Spring Festival holiday approached, the actual order follow-up was significantly weakened compared to the previous period. Logistics transportation was nearing its end, with concentrated delivery as the main focus, and new order follow-up was relatively limited. Manufacturers are guiding prices to rise one after another, with a pace of controlling quantity. The filling of spot goods is slow, and the supply is limited. Traders are quoting high prices, and the market inquiry atmosphere is good. Actual transactions are average. Towards the end of the month, production companies announced their high listing prices for next month, which boosted the overall boost and led to a significantly stronger market following suit.

The supply side is affected by favorable factors such as reduced supply from production enterprises.

On the cost side, raw material pure benzene: In February, the price of pure benzene continued to rise significantly, but slightly declined in the latter half of the year. As of February 29th, the benchmark price of pure benzene in Shengyishe is 8567.17 yuan/ton. Raw material aniline: After the price increase of aniline in February, it was sorted out. As of February 29th, the benchmark price of aniline in Shengyishe was 10987.50 yuan/ton. The cost of short-term aggregated MDI is influenced by favorable factors.

On the demand side, due to the cooling weather in the north, the downstream factory entry rhythm is slightly slow, and the consumption capacity is limited. The consumption power of the supply of goods is pushed back passively. With the temperature rising gradually, the downstream factory entry is in place after the Yuanxiao (Filled round balls made of glutinous rice-flour for Lantern Festival) Festival, and the consumption support of stock and demand. The short-term aggregate MDI demand side is temporarily affected by favorable factors.

In the future market forecast, cost benefits will support the market, and the market will mainly digest the increase. Business Society’s aggregated MDI analyst predicts that the domestic aggregated MDI market will mainly consolidate at a high level.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference average price of domestic caprolactam on February 1st was 13735 yuan/ton, and on February 29th, the reference average price of domestic caprolactam was 13900 yuan/ton. This month, the market price of domestic caprolactam increased by 1.20%.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic price of caprolactam fluctuated and increased this month. The price of raw material pure benzene has increased this month, leading to increased cost support. Driven by raw materials, the market trend of caprolactam is on the rise. Before the holiday, some caprolactam enterprises reduced their load operation, resulting in a decrease in market supply. Downstream replenishment is mainly based on demand, and the market transaction atmosphere is good. At the end of the month, the pure benzene market fell, and the price of caprolactam slightly decreased. Last week, Sinopec settled a price of 14500 yuan/ton for caprolactam, which is a high-quality liquid product.

Raw material pure benzene market. The domestic price of pure benzene has increased this month, and since the beginning of the month, the price of pure benzene has been continuously rising. At the end of the month, the price has slightly declined. On February 1st, the price was 7967 yuan/ton, and on February 29th, it was 8478 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.41% from the beginning of the month. This month, Sinopec’s pure benzene price is 8550 yuan/ton.

Downstream PA6 market. This month, the domestic PA6 market has strengthened, with some spot prices rising. As of February 29th, the domestic reference price for PA6 is 15200 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.88% compared to the beginning of the month.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to caprolactam analysts from Business Society, the recent decline in raw material pure benzene prices has weakened cost support. Downstream demand is stable, and a cautious mindset is increasing. It is expected that the market price of caprolactam will be weak in the short term, and consolidation will be the main trend.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of new pentanediol in the mainstream domestic market slightly increased in February. The price of neopentyl glycol increased from 10200 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 10475 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 2.70%, and the price at the end of the month decreased by 5.06% year-on-year. On February 28th, the new pentanediol commodity index was 50.24, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 51.51% from the highest point in the cycle of 103.61 points (2021-09-22), and an increase of 16.70% from the lowest point of 43.05 points on November 28th, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2021 to present)

From the supply side perspective, mainstream distributors of new pentanediol have seen a slight increase in their quotes this month.

From a cost perspective, the market price of isobutyraldehyde increased significantly in February. The market price of isobutyraldehyde increased from 8466.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 8850 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 4.53%, with a year-on-year increase of 18% at the end of the month. The upstream raw material market prices have significantly increased, and due to the impact of supply and demand, the support for the price of new pentanediol has increased.

In the future, the overall trend of the new pentanediol market in mid to early March may experience slight fluctuations and gains. The upstream isobutyraldehyde market has seen a significant increase, with increased cost support. The downstream paint market is average, and downstream procurement enthusiasm has weakened. Business Society’s new pentanediol analyst believes that in the short term, the market for new pentanediol may experience slight fluctuations and increases due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

1、 Trend analysis

According to monitoring data from Business Society, copper prices in February showed an inverted “N” – shaped trend. At the beginning of the month, the copper price was 69131.67 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the copper price dropped to 68715 yuan/ton, with an overall decline of 0.6% and a year-on-year increase of 0.36%.

According to the current chart of the Business Society, copper spot prices in February were generally higher than futures prices, and the main contract was the expected price in two months. The overall future copper price is bearish.

According to LME inventory, LME copper inventory slightly decreased in February. As of the end of the month, LME copper inventory was 126525 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.99% compared to the beginning of the month.

Macroscopically, the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting indicate that it is unlikely that the Fed will cut interest rates soon, and market focus is shifting towards the upcoming release of US inflation data. On the domestic side, the LPR significantly decreased by 25 basis points in the first week after the holiday, marking the most aggressive rate cut in history, releasing strong market signals and injecting great confidence into the market. In addition, multiple regions have released a “whitelist” of real estate projects, and multiple banks have quickly provided new financing and loan extensions, boosting the sluggish real estate market.

On the supply side

The disturbance at the offshore mining end has not yet subsided, and market concerns about the mining end continue. The closure of Cobre copper mine until May 2024 has affected production by approximately 175000 tons; The Sossego copper mine has suspended operations, further impacting copper mine supply. The decrease in spot processing fees for copper concentrate may affect the domestic supply of refined copper at the end of the first quarter, and have a negative impact on the spot and long-term contract signing of copper concentrate.

Downstream aspect

After the end of the Yuanxiao (Filled round balls made of glutinous rice-flour for Lantern Festival) Festival, the consumption verification stage has basically entered. At present, the situation of new energy vehicles and air conditioners remains resilient, but the infrastructure and real estate sectors are still weak, and the overall demand is estimated to be relatively neutral. The spot market transactions remain sluggish, and the downstream procurement frenzy has not yet begun. Most companies are still consuming their pre Spring Festival stock of raw materials and long order supply, and some market participants are only maintaining a low price to purchase goods. Overall, consumer sentiment is poor, which suppresses market trading activity.

Comparison chart of annual copper prices

According to the annual price comparison chart of copper, in the past five years, except for the decline in copper prices in March 2020 due to the epidemic, copper prices in March of other years have been relatively strong.

Overall, due to the Spring Festival, copper trading in China has stagnated and inventory has slightly accumulated. After the Yuanxiao (Filled round balls made of glutinous rice-flour for Lantern Festival), with the recovery of downstream demand, copper prices are supported by the disturbance of copper mines. At the same time, the release of favorable policies in China will continuously enhance investor confidence. However, macro uncertainty factors still exist, and it is expected that copper prices will experience strong fluctuations in March.

According to the data from the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, since February, the hydrogen peroxide market has remained stable with a slight increase, and the market is still operating at a low level. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 776 yuan/ton. On February 26th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 783 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.86%.

Terminal demand is in a recovery period, and the hydrogen peroxide market has slightly increased in February

Since February, the domestic hydrogen peroxide market has gradually stabilized, and the stocking market for terminal printing and paper manufacturers has come to an end. The market purchasing and sales are sluggish, and there is currently no fluctuation in the hydrogen peroxide market. As of February 8th, the mainstream price in Shandong region is around 780 yuan/ton, which is stable, while the mainstream price in Anhui region is 830 yuan/ton, which is generally stable.

After the Spring Festival, the domestic hydrogen peroxide market remained stable with a slight increase. The terminal printing and paper industry have gradually resumed operations, and terminal demand has increased. As February approaches the end, the hydrogen peroxide market is gradually recovering, with prices slightly increasing. The average market price is 800 yuan/ton, with a price increase of about 50 yuan/ton.

Chemical analysts from Business Society believe that in March, terminal printing and papermaking manufacturers have gradually resumed production, and the hydrogen peroxide market is expected to see an increase.

As of February 2, 2024, the domestic market price of first-class sponge titanium is between 50000-53000 yuan/ton. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of February 2nd, the benchmark price of domestic first-class sponge titanium is 51500.00 yuan/ton.

Excessive production capacity leads to a sharp increase in production

China has an overcapacity of sponge titanium and a sharp increase in production. It is expected that the new production capacity will reach over 300000 tons in 2023, and the new construction and planning in 2024 will reach over 400000 tons. In 2023, the economy is still in the recovery stage, and the downstream titanium material market is operating weakly. Demand is weak, and the order volume has decreased, making it difficult to digest such a large capacity supply. The market is experiencing an imbalance between supply and demand. In the second half of the year, some sponge titanium production enterprises have reduced production, timely avoiding the current wave of overcapacity. The main reason for the current market stalemate is the oversupply.

A decrease in import volume and an increase in export volume

According to customs data, the import volume of unwrought sponge titanium in 2023 was 133.844 tons, a decrease of 98.8% compared to last year. The export volume of unwrought sponge titanium in 2023 was 5478.542 tons, an increase of 231% compared to last year. In 2023, there was an oversupply of sponge titanium production and an improvement in quality. Most enterprises cleared their inventory and had an advantage in price compared to imports. Therefore, downstream demand for imported sponge titanium decreased accordingly, and the export volume of sponge titanium also increased in 2023.

Downstream titanium material market demand is weak

Downstream customers are mostly wait-and-see oriented. Due to the rapid development of the titanium industry, titanium materials and products have high requirements for quality and price. Although domestic sponge titanium production enterprises have improved product quality, it is still difficult to meet the needs of military industries such as aerospace in the short term. Many large titanium companies have fixed brands and partners, which reduces the survival space of small and medium-sized enterprises and puts too much pressure on them. Most titanium companies maintain a cautious and wait-and-see attitude, waiting for the next round of price reductions due to more intense market competition.

2024 forecast

Business Society Sponge Titanium Analyst believes that due to the high price of sponge titanium raw materials, production pressure on production enterprises is greater, and more production capacity continues to be released in the market, resulting in an increase in production. In the short term, the sponge titanium market in the sea is showing a weak and stable trend. However, the downstream application market is extensive, and more new electronic products are gradually being launched, leading to a rapid increase in demand. The improvement of the economy and policy encouragement may bring vitality to the sponge titanium market.

1、 Trend analysis

According to monitoring data from Business Society, copper prices fell first and then rose in January. At the beginning of the month, the copper price was 69250 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the copper price dropped to 69145 yuan/ton, with an overall decline of 0.15%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.56%.

According to the current chart of the Business Society, copper spot prices were generally higher than futures prices in the first and middle of January. The main contract is the expected price in two months, and the overall copper price in the future is bearish. However, in late January, the main contract price was higher than the spot price, indicating a bullish outlook on copper prices in the future.

According to LME inventory, LME copper inventory slightly decreased in January. As of the end of the month, LME copper inventory was 146475 tons, a decrease of 11.6% compared to the beginning of the month. LME copper has been destocked due to disruptions in the Red Sea shipping industry, but the extent of destocking has been largely offset by the accumulated inventory of domestic exchanges and bonded ports.

Macroscopically, in the early stages, copper prices rapidly lowered due to the optimistic expectations of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates too quickly, the rapid rebound of the US dollar index, and the pressure of China’s January MLF rate cut failing; With the full reflection of early pressure, the US dollar index falling into volatility, and the strengthening of mining support, copper prices have begun to stop falling and rebound, especially with the news of the sudden 0.5 percentage point reduction in reserve requirements by the People’s Bank of China, copper prices have seen a significant rise.

On the supply side

In the past two months, the processing cost of copper concentrate has significantly fallen, considering the closure of some large overseas mines in the early stage, the market’s expectation of supply shortage has increased. However, based on the domestic refined copper production data in December last year, despite a decrease in operating rates, the production remained relatively high and did not show a significant decrease

The refined copper (electrolytic copper) production in December was 1.169 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 16.6%; The cumulative production from January to December was 12.988 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 13.5%.

Downstream aspect

Under normal circumstances, domestic social inventory began to increase around three weeks before the Spring Festival, but before this year’s Spring Festival, there was no significant accumulation of domestic social inventory, indicating that downstream enterprises are still buying on dips. Among them, air conditioning companies saw a higher than expected increase in production in January, and demand for copper pipes will continue to remain strong. Copper pipe companies increased their raw material inventory on dips. As the year-end approaches, downstream stocking efforts and pace have slowed down. However, strong overseas economic data has driven the market from interest rate cuts to expectations of a “soft landing”. In the case of stable actual supply, a tight balance sheet indicates that demand is still at a good level.

Comparison chart of annual copper prices

According to the annual price comparison chart of copper, in the past five years, except for the decline in copper prices in February 2020 due to the epidemic, copper prices in February of other years have been relatively strong.

Overall, from the supply side, the supply of copper concentrate is tight, and TC is rapidly falling, which will affect the production of refined copper in the later stage. This indicates that there is a cumulative increase in inventory before and after the holiday, but the inventory increase may be lower than expected, and the speed of enterprise destocking after the holiday may be faster, which will form upward support for prices. This year’s Spring Festival processing enterprises did not have any extended holidays, which is basically similar to last year’s situation, indicating that the expectation of replenishing inventory for enterprises is strong after the holiday. From a macro perspective, the IMF has raised its global economic growth forecast for 2024, believing that the possibility of a “hard landing” in the economy has decreased, and the expectation of long-term interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve still exists. It is expected that market liquidity will continue to increase. At the same time, the release of favorable policies in China will continuously enhance investor confidence. Therefore, copper prices are expected to perform stronger in the first quarter after the Spring Festival holiday.

According to the bulk list data of Business Society, as of January 31, 2024, the reference price for diethylene glycol in the domestic market was 5660 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.67 yuan/ton or 0.12% compared to the price as of December 31, 2023 (reference price for diethylene glycol is 5666.67 yuan/ton).

From the data monitoring of Business Society, it can be seen that in January, the domestic diethylene glycol market first fell and then rose, showing an overall fluctuating pattern in a range. In the first half of January, the number of ships arriving at the port was concentrated and large. The surplus in December and the goods of this month were interspersed into the port and warehouse. During the off-season of demand, the downstream could not consume all of the ship’s cargo, resulting in a clear increase in inventory. The positive supply in the early stage dissipated, and although there was no obvious bearish trend leading to a decline, the operators still handled this change with caution. Under the guidance of supply and demand logic, the mentality of the operators fell, and the weak range of diethylene glycol in the East China market fluctuated narrowly. After the middle of the month, downstream stocking began, and the shipment volume exceeded the expectations of the industry to a certain extent. Under the guidance of demand logic, the influence of concentrated delivery weakened, and market sentiment was optimistic. Holding merchants reported an increase in prices. In the latter half of the year, the changes in supply and demand were limited, with narrow fluctuations in main port inventory. The overall demand for stocking remained stable, and the market sentiment was mainly affected by shipping conditions. Prices fluctuated within a range of 100 yuan, but with downstream factories gradually stopping for holidays and expectations of weak demand, the market sentiment was cautious. As of the close on the 31st, spot prices in East China closed at 5650-5670 yuan/ton, while spot prices in South China closed at 5790-5810 yuan/ton.

Market forecast: Currently, the main downstream unsaturated resins are mostly shut down, and there is a slight demand for polyester polyurethane during the pre holiday consolidation stage. The lower reaches of South China have basically closed, and the transactions of the holders have come to a close; The demand margin in the East China market is insufficient, and operators are waiting for the market to close, and trading sentiment will gradually cool down. However, the current supply of diethylene glycol is stable, and the supply and demand structure is loose. According to analysts from Shengyishe, the recent trend of domestic diethylene glycol spot prices has loosened, and there is further room for market pressure to fall back.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of January 31, 2023, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China was 8816 yuan/ton. Compared with January 1 (reference price of n-butanol was 8700 yuan/ton), the price increased by 116 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.34%.

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that in January, the overall n-butanol market in Shandong Province, China, experienced a slight increase and end in a fluctuating upward and downward trend. In early January, the n-butanol market experienced mixed ups and downs. At the beginning of the month, the trading atmosphere in the n-butanol alcohol field was light, with limited transactions, and the n-butanol market was weakly declining. With the shutdown and maintenance of some devices in the n-butanol field, the supply of n-butanol was reduced, and downstream inquiries were active. With the support of supply and demand, the n-butanol market was facing an upward trend. In the middle of the month, some facilities resumed production, and the supply of n-butanol gradually relaxed, weakening market support, and the n-butanol market began to decline. As of January 15th, the domestic market price of n-butanol in Shandong region was around 8700-8800 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0.57% in the first half of the year.

In late January, the n-butanol market continued to fluctuate frequently, and the overall market showed a fluctuating upward trend. In the latter half of the year, some units shut down again, and the supply of n-butanol was slightly tight. Starting from the 19th, the overall market price of n-butanol saw a brief upward trend. As the end of the month approaches, many downstream users are entering the Spring Festival stocking cycle, and the overall market atmosphere is good, driving the focus of the n-butanol market up. As of January 31st, the market price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China, was around 8800-8900 yuan/ton, with a 1.93% increase in the latter half of the year.

Future analysis

At present, the trading atmosphere in the n-butanol market is mild, and there are still some users stocking up on the downstream demand side of n-butanol. The overall inquiry atmosphere in the market is good. The n-butanol data analyst from Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong region will mostly operate steadily with a strong bias, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.