Recently, the market price of epichlorohydrin has remained stable with little fluctuation. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of January 15th, the average price quoted by epoxy chloropropane enterprises was 8150.00 yuan/ton, which is unchanged from the price on Tuesday (January 9th) last week.

Price influencing factors:

Cost side: According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market has recently seen a slight increase, with weak and stable prices of raw material glycerol. The cost side has a moderate impact on the market of epichlorohydrin.

Supply and demand side: The utilization rate of production capacity on the supply side is around 50%, and spot supply is tight. Enterprises have weak intentions to sell low, but downstream demand follow-up is insufficient. Inquiries and purchases require small orders to follow up, resulting in a stalemate in the market atmosphere and average transactions. Holders can adjust their prices flexibly according to their own situation, and the focus of negotiations in the epichlorohydrin market is stable with little movement.

Analysts from Business Society believe that the current cost impact is average, and there is currently no pressure on supply side inventory. However, demand follow-up is weak, and the market mentality is cautious. It is expected that the market for epichlorohydrin will stabilize and operate in the short term, and more attention still needs to be paid to market news guidance.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the average ex factory price of Shanxi light potassium carbonate, including tax, was 7480.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. On the weekend, the average ex factory price of Shanxi light potassium carbonate, including tax, was 7440.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.53%. The current price has dropped by 1.46% compared to the previous year, and the current price has dropped by 18.24% year-on-year.

Potassium carbonate

The price of potassium carbonate has fallen this week. From the above chart, it can be seen that the potassium carbonate market has mainly experienced a slight decline in the past two months, and this week’s market continues to decline slightly. The market price of raw material potassium chloride has declined, with poor cost support. Downstream demand generally maintains rigid procurement, and market transactions are light. The market for potassium carbonate continues to decline. According to statistics from Business Society, the mainstream ex factory quotation range for industrial grade potassium carbonate in China this week is around 7200-7400 yuan/ton (for reference only), and the quotation varies depending on the procurement situation.

Recently, the domestic market for potassium chloride and potassium chloride has declined. The prices of potassium chloride in salt lakes and Zangge are temporarily stable. The downstream market of potassium chloride has slightly declined, and downstream demand has weakened, with rigid demand procurement being the main focus. The circulation of potassium chloride is tight, and the supply of goods at the port has slightly increased. Business Society’s potassium chloride analyst believes that domestic potassium chloride import prices may slightly decline in the short term.

Recently, the domestic potassium fertilizer market has been weak and consolidating, with poor cost support and flat potassium carbonate shipments. It is expected that the potassium carbonate market will mainly experience a slight decline in the short term. The long-term market still needs to be watched.

The price of ethylene glycol rose in January

The price of ethylene glycol increased in January. According to data from Business Society, as of January 8th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4406.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.30% from the beginning of the month. Prices in various regions are as follows:

The price range for spot goods executed by mainstream manufacturers in East China is between 4400-4550 yuan/ton; The spot price of ethylene glycol in the South China market is 4350 yuan/ton, and the price range for mainstream manufacturers in Central China is 4400 yuan/ton; The mainstream manufacturers in North China offer a spot price of 4500 yuan/ton for external transactions.

Review of ethylene glycol market

Expectations on the news side are leading the recent upward trend in ethylene glycol prices. At the end of last month, after some parking reports were falsified, prices rebounded. This month, market sentiment once again focused on the expectation of import volume contraction. Last Friday, futures prices rose sharply, and spot prices followed suit. At present, downstream investors are relatively cautious about high priced ethylene glycol, with increased wait-and-see sentiment and average trading volume.

Expected future market for ethylene glycol

The main variables currently affecting the price of ethylene glycol are whether the implementation of import volume reduction has been realized, and whether the underlying cost support brought about by crude oil and coal prices will shift.

The supply and demand fundamentals of ethylene glycol are still in a weak state, and the reality of high inventory suppresses the upward space of prices. Currently, prices have shown significant upward momentum, and in the future, we will focus on the negative feedback effect of terminal demand variables on raw materials. It is expected that ethylene glycol prices will mainly fluctuate in the short term.

1、 Price trend

The domestic price of hexafluoropropylene has declined this week, with an average price of 36800.00 yuan/ton as of the weekend, a decrease of -0.61% compared to the beginning of this month (37025.00 yuan/ton).

2、 Price influencing factors:

Due to weak downstream market demand, market trading volume has decreased; The price trend of raw material fluorite has declined, and the utilization rate of enterprise production capacity is low, resulting in poor sales.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society’s hexafluoropropylene analyst believes that downstream purchases are mostly on demand, market demand is poor, and production capacity utilization is low. It is expected to operate steadily next week.

Domestic price trend:

From the trend chart of para xylene, it can be seen that the price trend of para xylene increased in December. As of the end of the month, the domestic ex factory price of para xylene was 8600 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.61% compared to the initial price of 8300 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year increase of 15.44%.

In December, the spot supply of xylene was normal, and the domestic PX operating rate remained above 80%. However, there were still some equipment repairs, and there was little change in spot supply. In December, international crude oil prices fluctuated and declined, and the country cancelled the preferential tax rate for imported PX from Taiwan. As a result, the price of PX in the foreign market rose. As of the 28th, the closing price in Asia was 1002-1004 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 1027-1029 US dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX plants in Asia has been maintained, and overall, the operating rate of xylene plants in the Asian region is around 80%. The supply of PX goods in the Asian region is normal, but the domestic xylene market prices have increased due to the rise in foreign prices.

The overall trend of international crude oil prices in December has declined. As of the end of the month, the settlement price of the main WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $71.77 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $77.15 per barrel. The crude oil price in December fell by 5.52%. Firstly, the economic data is poor, and the news is bearish for the oil price market. The duration of the Federal Reserve maintaining high interest rates may be extended, and a long-term high interest rate environment may slow down economic growth and suppress energy demand. The unexpected rise in inflation data has further exacerbated the already weak oil market, exacerbating the decline in crude oil. Secondly, the results of the OPEC+production policy meeting did not meet market expectations, and the reduction in production was not as expected. In addition, the voluntary reduction in production is questionable, and the supply side is facing greater pressure in the future. However, due to geopolitical tensions, the transportation of Red Sea vessels has been hindered, affecting the supply of crude oil and providing some support for international oil prices. The combined effects of long and short positions have led to a decline in the overall trend of crude oil prices, with limited price increases in the domestic xylene market.

The domestic PTA spot market in December showed an upward trend, with an average price of 5953 yuan/ton in the East China market as of the end of the month, an increase of 4.90% from the price of 5675 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. From the recent changes in PTA equipment, four sets of main suppliers in East China with a total annual production capacity of 10.8 million tons (design capacity) have seen a decrease in PTA equipment load to 70%. At the same time, one set of 1.2 million tons of PTA equipment in the northwest has been shut down. During this period, the operating load of the PTA industry has been reduced to around 78%, and unplanned PTA equipment load reduction and shutdown indirectly supported the PTA market. Downstream polyester enterprises have completed the raw material replenishment in December, with polyester production stable at around 86%, and the overall accumulation pressure of products is obvious. In terms of polyester, cost support is good, and mainstream factories in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions continue to raise their prices. At the end of the month, factories have a positive attitude towards shipment, and the market transaction focus is strong. However, under the seasonal off-season background, the terminal elasticity, weaving, and printing and dyeing start-up rates have partially declined to below 72%. Affected by the rising trend of PTA market prices, the domestic market price of xylene has risen.

Chen Ling, an analyst at Business Society PX, believes that the current bullish and bearish game in the crude oil market is mainly characterized by range fluctuations in crude oil prices. In recent times, the downstream PTA market trend has risen, and there has been no significant improvement in demand in the textile industry. The increase in orders is not significant, and some terminal textile companies are also relatively cautious. Overall, it is expected that the price trend in the xylene market will remain stable in the later period.

In December, the price of metallic silicon rose and was in an overall upward cycle. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of November 29, 2023, the reference price for the domestic 441 # metallic silicon market was 15620 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.90% from the beginning of the month and a decrease of 18.39% from the same period last year. In December, the fundamentals of silicon metal were in a state of weak supply and demand, with the supply side continuing to contract. This was mainly due to the low inventory of silicon factories in Xinjiang due to environmental restrictions in the north; The Southwest region has officially entered the dry season, and the operating rate remains low. Supply disruptions drive up prices.

Supply side

In December, China’s silicon metal production was about 363510 tons, a month on month decrease of 59510 tons, a decrease of 14.07%, and a year-on-year increase of 59030 tons, an increase of 19.39%. Among them, Xinjiang produced 182300 tons, accounting for 50.15% of the total production; Yunnan’s production is 479780 tons, accounting for 13.69% of the total production; Sichuan produces 23900 tons, accounting for 6.57% of the total production. In 2023, the cumulative production was 3914020 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 411450 tons, an increase of 11.75%.

The supply of metallic silicon has actually contracted, the cost of electricity in Southwest China is too high, the production enthusiasm of silicon plants is low, and the shutdown and reduction of production have increased. The weekly production has basically been at the bottom of the same period in history; Affected by cold wave weather and environmental policies, production in the north has decreased. High energy consuming enterprises in Bayannur, Inner Mongolia have been notified to take turns insulation during the morning and evening peaks. Currently, three silicon enterprises have been affected, with a daily insulation time of 2-4 hours, and there is no clear end time for power restrictions; Some silicon factories in Xinjiang have been notified to maintain a 2-hour daily insulation, while other silicon factories in Ili are temporarily operating normally.

Demand side

In December, domestic polycrystalline silicon continued its downward trend from the previous month, with a slight slowdown in the decline. As of the end of the month, the mainstream range for single crystal dense materials with a model of first-class solar energy is maintained at 55-6000 yuan/ton. Silicon material manufacturers are maintaining a reasonable level of operation, and maintenance equipment has been gradually started before. The addition of new production facilities gradually reaches mass production, bringing about stable supply increment. The increase in supply leads to the accumulation of inventory in enterprises, weakening the bargaining power of silicon material manufacturers, lowering prices to clear inventory, and coupled with the decrease in winter installation demand, polycrystalline silicon enterprises still have the possibility of continuing to lower prices.

In December, the overall domestic organic silicon DMC market showed a weak downward trend, with the market center constantly moving towards a low level. At the end of the month, the market price was around 13500-14200 yuan/ton. Some organic silicon DMC factories have reduced their operating costs and actively adjusted their operating rates to adapt to the current weak market. However, due to demand constraints, the overall supply pressure on organic silicon DMC factories still exists. With the continuous exploration of market prices, downstream demand has improved to a certain extent, bringing a slight upward trend to the market. It is expected that the short-term market will mainly operate steadily

In December, the price of aluminum alloy fluctuated and increased, with a slight increase in the price of aluminum alloy ADC12. The current quotation is 20100 yuan/ton, and aluminum alloy factories will have a moderate amount of inventory by the end of the year. It is also difficult to place large quantities of orders during the process of silicon price increase, and there is a lot of wait-and-see sentiment.

According to customs data, industrial silicon exports in November reached 47600 tons, an increase of 9.17% compared to the previous month and a decrease of 3.25% compared to the same period last year. Exports slightly increased compared to October, but the export price of metallic silicon increased due to the improvement in foreign market demand and the rise in the RMB exchange rate.

Future Market Forecast

The decrease in operating rates of silicon factories in the north and south has effectively alleviated the overall supply pressure on the metal silicon market. In December, the market sentiment was slightly optimistic, with prices rising slightly. In terms of demand, the price of polycrystalline silicon is prone to decline but difficult to rise, but with the release of new production capacity, production remains high, and there is still a good demand for metallic silicon; With the weak market situation, the operating rate of organic silicon has slightly declined, and there is a possibility of further decline in the operating rate of organic silicon factories in the future; The price of aluminum alloy has increased, but the purchase of metallic silicon remains in high demand. Overall, in the short term, the supply of metallic silicon in the market will be less than demand, and market sentiment has been boosted. It is expected that silicon prices will continue to fluctuate strongly in January.

As of December 28, 2022, the DMF market has shown a volatile downward trend, with a decline of 21.14% throughout the year. The overall DMF market is weak, with insufficient demand, weak upstream support, and insufficient price upward momentum. The high point of DMF prices in 2023 was at the beginning of the year at 6150 yuan/ton, and the low point was in July at 4550 yuan/ton. The overall market supply and demand balance is the main factor.

In 2023, the DMF market experienced ups and downs. In January, there was a clear upward trend, followed by a subsequent decline in prices. The downward trend continued until July, when prices bottomed out and rebounded. From August to September, there was a clear upward trend, followed by a downward trend in prices. The overall transaction atmosphere of the DMF market in 2023 was poor, with a sluggish market and slow shipments, and most manufacturers operating under pressure. So, what is the trend in 2024? Will spring come?

DMF is an important industrial solvent widely used in industries such as synthetic fibers, plastics, films, textiles, paints, and coatings. It is also a commonly used hydrogenation reaction reagent and extractant, and has important applications in organic synthesis, drug synthesis, and electronics industries. Its use is very extensive and closely related to daily life. Since 2022-2023, the DMF market has been showing a weak downward trend, with slow economic recovery, Most manufacturers restock on demand and place orders cautiously. The overall market sentiment is insufficient, and enterprises are operating under pressure. The cost side is hovering, and prices continue to decline, but there is still no improvement. 2024 is approaching, and with the economic recovery, DMF is expected to break through the dull trend.

The overall trend of upstream methanol is similar to that of DMF. Overall, the price trend of DMF is closely related to methanol. Methanol showed a fluctuating downward trend in the first half of the year, but in the second half of the year, the price stopped falling and rebounded. As the end of the year approaches, the price showed a fluctuating operating trend. The trend of DMF in 2024 depends on the specific trend of upstream methanol and the increase in downstream demand.

In 2023, DMF experienced a volatile downward trend, with slight support from the cost side and insufficient demand from downstream customers, resulting in enormous pressure on DMF enterprises to operate under pressure throughout the year. Currently, prices are at a low level in recent years, and DMF prices are expected to rebound in 2024. With the recovery of the economy, people’s mentality has shifted from confusion and observation to full confidence, believing that DMF will have new vitality in 2024.

Commodity Market: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the mainstream market price of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China has slightly declined recently. On the 18th, the market reported around 13260 yuan/ton, and on the 26th, it reported around 13240 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.15%. The raw material acrylonitrile remains stable overall, with a slight decline in acrylic acid prices and a slight decline in polyacrylamide costs. Enterprises in the main production areas are operating normally, with abundant market supply and weak downstream demand. The circulation of goods is slow, and the mainstream market trend of polyacrylamide is mainly consolidating.

Raw material acrylonitrile: According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the acrylonitrile market has remained stable recently, and as of December 26th, the loose water price in the acrylonitrile market is 9862 yuan/ton. At present, the mainstream price for self extraction of acrylonitrile from tanks in the market is between 9700 to 9900 yuan/ton. Rising raw material prices, cost support for acrylonitrile prices; The weak market trend in the main downstream ABS market continues, with spot prices of various brands fluctuating, and production slightly declining; The supply side of acrylonitrile units is loose, while the demand side is weak. The acrylonitrile market is in urgent need of inquiry support, and the market is consolidating.

Raw Material Acrylic Acid: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the overall acrylic acid market has slightly declined recently. As of December 26th, the average quoted price for acrylic acid in East China is 6175 yuan/ton. At present, there is strong cost pressure, and some regions have plans to park their facilities. However, during the off-season of demand, there is limited follow-up on inquiries and procurement. It is expected that the acrylic acid market will remain stagnant and operate in the short term.

Liquefied natural gas for production. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of liquefied natural gas in China has recently increased significantly. Frequent cold air attacks in China have been affected by cooling weather in many areas, leading to a significant increase in downstream replenishment demand and a continuous rise in liquefied natural gas prices. After snowfall, traffic flows smoothly. In terms of sea and gas, some receiving stations have raised prices. The slight increase in raw gas prices has increased cost support, driving up liquid prices.

Market forecast: In the near future, the overall raw material prices have slightly declined, the fuel market has significantly increased, and the cost of polyacrylamide has fluctuated. On the supply side, enterprises in the main production areas have normal production and sufficient market supply; On the demand side, downstream procurement and supply remain flat, with little change in market transactions. It is expected that domestic polyacrylamide sorting will be the main focus in the near future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the asphalt market fluctuates narrowly. From December 18th to 25th, the price of asphalt in Shandong Province dropped from 3466 yuan/ton to 3459 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.19%, a month on month increase of 0.34%, and a year-on-year decrease of 2.72%. Although international crude oil rebounded, the fundamentals of asphalt remained weak, with low-priced resources being the main source of transactions. Under the influence of rainy and snowy weather in the north, actual demand was hindered, with inbound demand being the main source. Some resources were mainly from the south and waterproof procurement.

On the supply side, in terms of major production enterprises, Qilu Petrochemical has intermittently switched production, coupled with the shutdown of Landbridge. The comprehensive operating rate of the asphalt industry has decreased compared to the previous month, which has had a positive impact on the supply side.

On the cost side, during the same period, international crude oil futures prices have slightly rebounded and consolidated, but overall they are still operating at a low level. As of December 22, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract was 78.80 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 0.36 US dollars or 0.5%.

On the demand side, the main demand is in various regions, with small transactions being the main focus. Affected by the factors of rain, snow, and cooling weather, the demand in the northern region is frozen, with some inbound demand being the main demand. The demand in the southern region has also weakened, and the demand in the asphalt market is affected by negative factors.

As of the close of December 22, the petroleum asphalt futures market has risen. The main asphalt contract 2403 opened at 3718 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 3751 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 3736 yuan/ton. It closed at 3736 yuan/ton in the end, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day’s settlement, an increase of 0.13%. The trading volume was 250679 lots, and the position was 331487 lots, with a daily increase of 9303 lots.

In the future market forecast, due to the expected factors of international crude oil rebound and shortage of raw materials, asphalt futures prices are slightly stronger. Some inquiries for forward contracts have high enthusiasm, but currently there is abundant spot supply, and demand is really flat. Business Society asphalt analysts predict that the domestic asphalt market will operate weakly in the short term.

Business Society: Narrow fluctuations in the asphalt market

Recent price trends of calcium carbide

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region has slightly increased this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China increased from 2966.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2983.33 yuan/ton over the weekend, an increase of 0.56%, and the weekend price decreased by 19.73% year-on-year. On December 24th, the calcium carbide commodity index was 78.17, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 63.17% from the highest point in the cycle of 212.23 points (2021-10-26), and an increase of 40.87% from the lowest point of 55.49 points on March 14th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to present)

Upstream support is average, while downstream demand increases

From the supply side perspective, the ex factory prices of calcium carbide in the northwest region have slightly increased this week, and the inventory levels of manufacturers are average.

The upstream blue charcoal market is consolidating at a low level, while the downstream PVC market prices have slightly increased. This weekend, the price of Shenmulan charcoal medium material is around 1160 yuan/ton, and the price is temporarily stable, with average cost support. The PVC market price has slightly increased this week, rising from 5698.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 5702.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.07%. Weekend prices fell by 6.78% year-on-year. The PVC market price has slightly increased, and downstream customers have increased their enthusiasm for purchasing calcium carbide. The downstream PVC market has a positive impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Calcium carbide may experience a volatile decline in the future market

In late December, the calcium carbide market may experience narrow fluctuations and mainly rise. The downstream PVC market has slightly increased, downstream demand has increased, raw material blue charcoal prices have stabilized at a low level, and cost support is average. Due to weather conditions, transportation in the north is slow and market circulation is tight. In the future, it is expected that the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region will fluctuate narrowly and rise in late December, with consolidation being the main trend.