After entering in September, the caprolactam market once again ushered in a wave of strong rebound, next week will usher in the National Day holiday, after a continuous rise to the current high, after the holiday caprolactam market, what are the main trends, the market can continue strong The We have a little analysis:

Driven by demand, steady prices before the holiday

From the figure we can see that since May, the domestic benzene market price as a whole to maintain stable trading situation, Sinopec listing price long maintained at 6100 yuan / ton, and the latest listing of 6250 yuan / ton, nearly five months The rate of shock is only 150 yuan / ton, the rate of change is only 2.5%, while the caprolactam market after the shock in August after the downlink, by the terminal market demand driven, coupled with supply of raw material ketone supply slightly tight impact, caprolactam spot The market appears in short supply situation, manufacturers continue to try to raise prices, profits are the same time the cost of the same situation again rose sharply.

After the holiday positive factors more, the market or continue to run high

1. Although some of the pre-maintenance device plans to gradually restart, but because of the overall supply of raw materials ketone is limited, the overall load is limited, the overall supply of goods is expected to grow more difficult;

2. At present, when the terminal spinning market demand season, the downstream section of the factory without shipping pressure, considerable profits, raw materials, caprolactam access plate will be acceptable, and there is no large raw material inventory, high demand;

3. After the ninth day of the festival held soon, the surrounding provinces and cities part of the production enterprises or the convening of the General Assembly due to parking restrictions, etc., the supply of goods within the field or will once again face the test, the downstream will be pre-stocking mood or will continue high.

Comprehensive above three points in the gold nine silver ten demand season, caprolactam market or will continue upward trend, the market to accept the attitude is relatively good.

Overall, the current caprolactam market to catch the demand of the “Express”, the price appeared steady upward, and the current state may continue until after the National Day holiday caprolactam market or will continue upward trend.

August 29, the US regional ethylene market closing price rose 39 US dollars / ton, FD US Gulf prices closed at 617-628 US dollars / ton.

August 29, the Asian region ethylene market prices stabilized, CFR Northeast Asia closing price unchanged, to close at 1279-1281 US dollars / ton; CFR Southeast Asia closing price unchanged, to close at 1124-1126 US dollars / ton.

August 29, 2017 LME spot cobalt closed 60,000 US dollars / ton, unchanged from the previous day.

August 29, the Cobalt Commodity Index was 153.96, up 0.36 points from the previous day, down 0.16% from its peak at 154.20 (2017-08-23), up from 69.84 points on Friday, July 06, 120.45%. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 so far).

People say that product prices, are derived from the price of raw materials, the wrong, which in the paint industry, is the most obvious phenomenon. However, many of the dilemma of paint products, are really derived from titanium dioxide and other raw materials wrong?

This year, the price of raw materials, paint a few times to deepen the paint industry sentiment, titanium dioxide, TDI, MDI, acrylic and other major raw material market price trend of the confusing, so that the paint industry faintly see the dawn of cost pressures decline. However, counterproductive, raw material prices did not as expected, have entered the price down channel, but always in high and volatile, and then continue to rise.

Has just been deeply “carcinogenic” whirlpool of titanium dioxide, in the industry strong “rumor”, by the international titanium dioxide giant gossip, Tenova, Japan’s Ishihara collective announced that since July 1 once again raised the price of titanium dioxide products, domestic enterprises There is no price adjustment action, but the major companies have no notice of price reduction; early in June to stop the TDI, recently announced by the China Chemical Co., Ltd. since June 15, will improve the North American and Caribbean WANNATE? TDI product prices, BASF announced since June 19 days, to improve the North American region TDI product prices; MDI products in the past two weeks, the price increase is more than 5%; and affected by supply and demand, after entering in May, acrylic products began a new round of price increases and so on.

Excess capacity and industry constraints is the main reason for the predicament

In the case of raw material prices to maintain volatility, the coatings industry will continue to be shrouded in cost pressures this year, production capacity and prices will be affected by the cost of sales will be affected by the price seems to be undoubtedly the status quo. But the refurbishment of the market to visit the staff feedback back to the situation is not the case, they said that the terminal, this year the paint market is indeed very serious, but not much of the relationship between raw material prices. Because the market price war is still prevalent, not affected by price increases, which caused the price war is the most important reason for excess capacity.

“The current paint market, reducing the supply of 50% of the product, the market may still be in a saturated state. Competition is so intense, how do we not fight the price war?” Although his This argument is more subjective inference, but from the data point of view, only January-April 2017, China’s cumulative production of paint has reached 5.9615 million tons, production capacity increased by 2.6%.

In fact, the demand for raw materials such as acrylic acid and titanium dioxide is consistent with the increase in paint production, and it is precisely the tendency of the coatings industry to guide raw materials to a certain extent and increase the tendency of raw material prices. The coexistence of the two in a certain range, determines the relevance of the interests, rather than inhibition. Moreover, compared with the impact of raw material prices, paint companies affected by the industry itself is much greater impact.

There are media reports that “because of the financing difficulties, less projects, policy pressure, and now the small and medium-sized paint business is not already closed down, that is, on the road leading to collapse.” Despite the results of exaggeration, but small and medium enterprises The current situation is difficult but also the truth. In the traditional coating products, homogenization of serious, worrying business; in the transformation and upgrading, but often stretched.

Now environmental protection is the industry trend, in order to seek a breakthrough, a lot of paint companies are in the direction of environmental protection to move closer, so water-based paint, art paint and other enterprises to get together in the field. But because of the lack of adequate financial support, there is no effective financing channels, making small and medium enterprises or because of forced support for water-based paint research and development into a financial dilemma, or for survival to consider, only the symbolic introduction of water-based paint concept, The name of the name of the first environmental protection, the main paint products.

In the hot art of paint, small and medium enterprises is also difficult to paint a little cake. Due to the lack of corporate reputation and brand influence, small and medium enterprises in the promotion of art paint products, and not to the big brands that have the inherent dealer channels can be arranged, only from the beginning of the investment agency, art paint high-end positioning, Store image and shop address (many require an area of ​​100 or so, configure the Red Star Macalline and other high-end stores) demanding, leading to high threshold agent, it is difficult to investment. And once the lower threshold, in the building materials market blossom everywhere, but also lost the product advantages, and ordinary paint products become the same competition.

Than the cut-off open source to create sustained vitality

Even in the layout of water-based coating, art paint and other environmentally friendly products in the field of great advantages of the mainstream enterprises, but also has a deep-rooted industry limitations. Paint industry every year so much capacity supply, are basically the domestic market in the effect, the proportion of exports is very small, the impact of the well-known domestic paint brand is also difficult to pass abroad, let alone set up factories in overseas. Although in recent years there are Boders and other foreign brands, overseas investment and construction and other acts, the paint industry also has the export action, but with the paint industry, the base is too small compared to the tiny. Therefore, the paint production capacity is difficult to open source, only in the domestic market continues to accumulate.

And then look at the field of paint raw materials, not only many have a wide range of overseas market resources, and enterprises also have a wide range of world influence. Among them, the titanium dioxide industry in 2016 production of 2.257 million tons, net exports of 531,000 tons, and exports maintained a growth rate of about 15%; TDI polyurethane industry is not much better, leading Wanhua Chemical not only in North America and the Caribbean The region has a factory, also became the world’s largest MDI suppliers, production capacity reached 2.04 million tons, accounting for about 1/4 of the global total capacity, so that China’s MDI MDI market to become the benchmark.

So, compared to raw material prices can affect the “throttling”, it is clear that the sale of “open source” on the industry’s impact is more critical and more far-reaching. So why the paint industry can not be more than a reference to the field of raw materials to learn more ways and rhythm of open source, but the total is not the main reason for the dilemma, and can not change the price of raw materials to heart, repeated containment. Further extension, there are many reasons that affect the paint industry, “going abroad” progress, the paint industry also has its own special nature, raw material prices is influential and so on the objective existence, but the downstream real estate industry, although less than the previous boom, but House prices are more and more expensive to sell, as the main brushing supplies, paint the price of the product did not have a substantial increase. But the furniture, bedding and other supporting housing supplies is more and more high-end, easily tens of thousands, more than ten million, ranging from millions, while the field of furniture is the downstream areas of the paint industry, thanks to the furniture products Flourishing, nearly two years of furniture paint sub-field to do particularly good.

To sum up, the coating industry’s dependence is too strong, too passive, creative poor. Always need to chase hot spots (real estate, furniture) to flourish, once attached to the object market decline, itself immediately sluggish. And this is not up and the price of raw materials is not much relationship, after all, with the economic development has been to a certain stage, the paint industry itself also has the demand for price environment. Therefore, the paint industry is not necessary every time the price changes in raw materials, “Pro enemy”, the raw material industry should not bear the “forced” paint industry such “charges”, or from the industry itself, more from the ” Open source “perspective, increase the industry’s creativity and sustained vitality.

Into May, the domestic concentrated nitric acid market continued downward trend, industry profits gradually shrink. With the continued infiltration of low prices in the northern market, the southern market showed low prices. With the continued imbalance between supply and demand, some factories limited production stability, the market outlook is still difficult to optimistic.

May domestic concentrated nitric acid market to undertake the downward trend, nitric acid “profiteering era” end. The main reason for the downlink is: high-load operation of the plant, the supply continued to increase, due to acid consumption capacity overwhelmed, acid prices were row row. Coupled with raw material ammonia market downturn, expanding the concentrated nitric acid market down space. Until the deadline, the domestic 98% concentrated nitric acid mainstream to discuss the average price around 1361 yuan / ton, the chain fell about 4.96%. Buy up or not to buy the atmosphere limit, the downstream purchase enthusiasm weakened, the latter part of the demand side performance is particularly important. Nitric acid market decline and the performance of upstream and downstream products are inseparable, the following related products for the market to do a brief analysis of the status quo.

Concentrated nitric acid-related products across the board collapse, but the profit margins are acceptable. With some of the plant shutdown, liquid ammonia supply situation slightly alleviated, liquid ammonia prices remain low hovering. The increase in supply, and the continued decline in prices of benzene, to promote the price of aniline lower. Up and down bad news, acid city pessimistic atmosphere gradually stronger. Coupled with the imbalance between supply and demand fundamentals to expand, the inevitable trend of the city under the city.

The main downstream of the aniline factory operating rate slightly improved, with the aniline profitability enhancement, aniline enterprise device load increase, the purchase of raw materials to become moderate. In the middle of May, “the area along the way” conference held, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and the surrounding small and medium-sized micro-chemical enterprises to stop production more, such as military, nitrocellulose, emulsion explosives, and the current fertilizer demand off-season, nitro-compound fertilizer and other weak demand, Facing the city weakened.

Aniline recent market prices began to fall into the channel, “zone along the way” Summit Forum opened, part of the enterprise limited production down, coupled with hazardous chemicals in local areas to limit the transport, the aniline market rhythm will be expected to slow down. Benzene, Sinopec in the two successive months after this cut, the market outlook, pure benzene market sentiment is getting stronger. At the same time, aniline production profit is currently maintained at a high level, to ensure that the aniline to follow the pure benzene prices fell profit margins. Production of tons of aniline with about 0.8 tons of concentrated nitric acid, according to Zhuo record understanding, strong profitability of aniline, the current East China region per ton of aniline gross profit of about 1,800 yuan / ton.

TDI recent domestic plant to meet the very market, coupled with the beginning of Shanghai Ke Si Chuang and southeast electrochemical device accidental parking, the market prices have rebounded. Part just need to enter the market income, industry mentality calm, random take the goods. Late transaction is relatively calm, traders cost savings under the pressure to take the goods, Rangli relatively reduced. As of the closing, the mainstream market in mainland China to discuss the mainstream 26,200 yuan / ton, Shanghai cargo mainstream talks in 26,500 yuan / ton, the chain rose 0.38%. Production of a ton of TDI about 1.4 tons of concentrated nitric acid, it is understood that the current domestic TDI industry considerable profits, a ton of profit is still up to million or more. In summary, concentrated nitric acid market long and short message filled, which oversupply situation still dominated. The price of raw materials liquid ammonia to maintain a low level of hovering for the nitric acid plant to provide a means to increase the cost of support for the supply and demand, supply and demand of raw materials, Contradictions within the short-term difficult to ease, low-cost local transactions show that the recent North-South spread to 50-100 yuan / ton.

Dongxing Securities report optimistic forecasts, 2016 this cycle of dry bulk, dry bulk shipping cycle recovery has been opened. 2017 BDI big trend is expected to exceed expectations, is expected to an increase of 33%-63%, in the long term there is still room to rise.

Used or BDI index, it is expected to usher in a super cycle?

“The container sector has bottomed out, a short time to carry freight rising with the off-season coming eased, to solve the problem of global excess capacity still needs time.” The Kawasaki (Kline) said.

CITIC Securities commodity business line senior manager Xu Xiao pointed out that the BDI base is quite low, moderate rebound is not out of the shipping market and, after falling bottoming out higher risk. In addition, the rise of the market is usually made by the new requirements appear to provide. President Barack Trump’s $500 billion infrastructure projects have been on the market a number of agencies that benefit the global ore trade, 2017 will be the catalyst of the dry bulk market.

According to the calculation results of an organization, Trump’s $500 billion infrastructure investment plan once effective incremental demand for shipping a year will give an additional 1.5%-2.6%.

However, Xu Xiao pointed out that considering the current fleet facing obsolescence or loss, overcapacity leads to long-term rates at low levels, and the ship financing more expensive and difficult; at the same time, the development of the industry is also facing the challenge of global economic uncertainty, oil prices continued to remain low, also should avoid overly optimistic.

“In fact, the shipping cycle has been from the second quarter of last year began to recover, the shipping cycle recovery lag the recovery of the global economy almost half a year or so, commodities are periodic recovery characteristics from the beginning of last year, the global economic data also show that the 2016 recovery is good, this is the basis of shipping cycle recovery. But we think it is a weak recovery, the future will be repeated, at least not back to the level of the first quarter of last year.” Jiang Xingchun said.

leading enterprises in Anhui Huaihua

operation of concentrated nitric acid with an annual output of 450 thousand tons of

nitric acid plant, offer 1550 yuan / meal, a small amount of inventory, sales in good

condition.

finance January 22nd domestic ethylene oxide price to 9550 yuan / ton (including tax), strong price. At present, the domestic downstream operating rate of ethylene oxide 5-6, with the holidays approaching, the logistics transportation is coming to an end.

In January 23rd, some areas of domestic ethylene oxide Market overview:

PetroChina Northeast company: Jilin petrochemical ethylene price quotation in 9200 yuan / ton, Fushun petrochemical price implementation of 9400 yuan / ton; Liaoyang petrochemical EO price of 9400 yuan / ton.

Shanghai Zhenhai Refinery, petrochemical, Yangzi Petrochemical Ethylene oxide factory implementation of 9600 yuan / ton.

Sanjiang chemical EO in the normal operation of production of an annual output of 520 thousand tons of equipment, implementation of factory price 9600 yuan / ton, plan to discuss the downstream transaction price shall prevail.

Tianjin petrochemical factory, sand petrochemical ethylene oxide 9600 yuan / ton.

Normal Wuhan ethylene 150 thousand tons / year EO unit, EO price of the latest implementation of 9600 yuan / ton.

Market summary: domestic ethylene oxide market steady – factory price cautious, downstream demand mainly follow up. The downstream domestic operating rate of ethylene oxide 5-6, with the holidays approaching, the logistics transportation is coming to an end, the end of the downstream terminal manufacturers to stop stocking, delivery. Now in the end stage, having stable epoxy ethane.