According to business agency data monitoring: lithium carbonate prices this week slightly explored, but most companies offer basically the same. On April 2, the average price of industrial lithium carbonate in East China was 87000 yuan / ton, which was 0.46% higher than that of the early Zhou Dynasty (on March 29, the average price of industrial lithium carbonate in East China was 86600 yuan / ton). On April 2, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 90600 yuan / ton, which was 0.44% higher than that of early Zhou (on March 29, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 90200 yuan / ton). On February 2, the comprehensive quotation of industrial lithium carbonate market was around 82000-90000 yuan / ton, and the comprehensive price of battery grade lithium carbonate market was 85000-92000 yuan / ton.

According to the observation of market changes, lithium carbonate price this week slightly explored, with relatively small fluctuation range, and most enterprises’ quotation price was basically the same as last week. At present, the market lithium carbonate suppliers have strong willingness to support the price, and the price is still stable under the condition of relatively weak demand. From March to may, the domestic lithium carbonate will continue to increase, and the pattern of short supply has been improved obviously, so it is difficult to see the price rise.

The downstream lithium hydroxide price is relatively stable, the market is in high position and stable operation. The enterprises mainly deliver the pre orders, and the downstream demand is relatively stable. In the aspect of the power market, the price is also gradually stable, with the market demand slowing down, the rising space is limited.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the commodity index of lithium carbonate on April 1 was 221.66, up 0.51 points from yesterday, down 45.28% from the highest point 405.10 (January 07, 2018), and 124.94% higher than the lowest point of 98.54 on October 16, 2014. (Note: the period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Analysts of lithium carbonate in business agency believe that the market demand is stable in the near future, downstream enterprises are basically in the state of just need to buy, the price rising trend is slightly weak, and it is expected that lithium carbonate price will continue to be high in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business club’s block list, the average ex factory price of powdered monoammonium was 2566.67 yuan / ton on March 26, and 2560 yuan / ton on March 22, with a year-on-year increase of 20.31%.

According to the data of the business club’s block list, on March 26, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium was 2900 yuan / ton, and on March 22, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium was 2900 yuan / ton, up 30.34% year on year.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of monoammonium phosphate rose slightly, the manufacturers made more stable adjustments, limited new orders, main orders, little shipping pressure, and the willingness to support the market is still relatively strong. At present, the downstream demand is stable, just need to purchase, the cost support is acceptable, and the short-term market is relatively stable. Anhui Province 55% ammonium powder factory offer 2450-2460 yuan / ton. The price of 55% ammonium powder in Hubei Province is 2500-2600 yuan / ton. The price of 55% ammonium powder in Henan Province is about 2500-2700 yuan / ton. The price of 55% ammonium powder in Sichuan is about 2400-2550 yuan / ton.

This week, DAP market is temporarily stable, market price guidance is not strong, most enterprises still stop reporting, continue to send orders. At present, the manufacturers mainly supply export orders, but there is still a gap in the domestic market supply, so the good news still exists, and the short-term market is relatively stable. In the domestic market, 64% of diammonium enterprises in Hubei Province stopped reporting, while 64% of diammonium enterprises in Gansu Province quoted 3150 yuan / ton. The price of 64% diammonium in Yunnan is 3300-3430 yuan / ton. In Guizhou, 64% diammonium is priced at 3250-3300 yuan / ton, while in Heilongjiang, the first arrival price of 64% diammonium is about 3300 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw materials, the domestic sulfur market is mainly wait-and-see, the inventory of domestic refineries in various regions remains low, the market sulfur price is high and firm, the enthusiasm of downstream factories to purchase in the market is weak, the quotation of domestic refineries is basically stable, and the shipment is acceptable. During the week, refineries in various regions of China made big steady and small moves, with the exception of Sinopec’s solid sulfur price increase of 20 yuan / ton in East China, the overall market quotation was stable. As of March 26, the reference price of sulfur was 1476.67, up 7.52% compared with March 1 (1373.33).

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of ammonium phosphate from business news agency believe that at present, the cost support is still in the market, domestic phosphate fertilizer export is good, enterprises mainly deliver early orders, the market arrival is low, which is good support. Monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate tend to be strong in the short term, and with the weakening of favorable factors, the later price may face a callback.

On March 29, international oil prices rose and fell repeatedly, domestic oil products fell steadily, and MTBE market prices remained stable. According to the data of business news agency, the price of MTBE was 5710 yuan / ton on March 29, and it was stable in the past seven days.

The upgrading of epidemic prevention and control measures in many European countries and the slow progress of vaccine promotion have cast a shadow on the prospects of economic recovery. In addition, the United States had inventory growth and international oil prices fell, but the Suez Canal ships were blocked, resulting in freight growth and international oil prices rose again. WTI crude oil prices fluctuated widely in the past seven trading days, ranging from US $57.5 to US $61.5 per barrel.

International oil prices fluctuated repeatedly, domestic gasoline market prices fell slightly, and demand for intermediate materials such as MTBE decreased, but the overall price of MTBE market remained stable. The MTBE market in Shandong maintains a rigid demand, while the oil distributors in southern market have a relatively negative intention to enter the market. On the whole, the price of MTBE in domestic market is stable and declining.

MTBE product analysts of business society energy branch think: the upward strength of crude oil price is insufficient, mainly in a wide range shock, coupled with the domestic refined oil reduction on March 31, gasoline price is about to decline, and the price of intermediate materials such as MTBE is expected to decline.

PE spot three varieties in February after experiencing a sharp rise in the market, March will enter the stage of consolidation after the rise. On the whole, the three major PE spot varieties were first high and then low in March. Among them, LLDPE in East China fell more than rose, with a decrease of 3.33% in March. LDPE and HDPE in East China rose more than fell, with a small increase in March as a whole. Here are the details:

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the average ex factory price of LLDPE (7042) in East China was 9000.00 yuan / ton on March 1 and 8700.00 yuan / ton on March 29, with a decrease of 3.33% in March and an increase of 8.98% compared with February 1.

According to the data monitoring of business association, the average ex factory price of LDPE (2426h) in East China was 12075.00 yuan / ton on March 1, and 12162.50 yuan / ton on March 29, with an increase of 0.72% in March, up 12.75% compared with February 1.

According to the data monitoring of the business association, the average ex factory price of HDPE (5000S) in East China was 9216.67 yuan / ton on March 1 and 9300.00 yuan / ton on March 29, with an increase of 0.90% in March and 13.88% compared with February 1.

It can be seen from the trend chart of business community that the overall trend of PE spot market in March can be divided into the first half of the month and the second half of the month. In the first half of the month, three kinds of PE spot continued the rising trend in February, and the overall center of gravity moved up. In the second half of the month, the three PE spot varieties all fell to varying degrees, among which LLDPE was greatly affected by the futures market, and the decline was the most obvious.

In the first half of the month, the overall small rise of PE market was the main, and the rise of three kinds of spot products was different, among which the increase of LDPE in East China was the most prominent. The overhaul of Maoming high-voltage device in March brought some support to the high-voltage market. In addition, the operating rate of agricultural film and plastic film increased significantly in March, and the increase of linear demand brought some support to the market. Secondly, the upstream enterprises went to the warehouse slightly, and the overall two barrel oil inventory was still low on a year-on-year basis. In terms of international crude oil, the main players in the first half of the month brought good results to the market. Spot three varieties have continued to rise in February, the focus continues to move up.

In the second half of the month, the overall PE market fell mainly. Except for Fushun Petrochemical in East China, which increased by 100 yuan / ton, other varieties decreased by 50-500 yuan / ton, among which LLDPE decreased the most. In the second half of the month, the futures market continued to fall, bringing some pressure on the spot market. Downstream, the film industry has gradually entered the off-season, and the plastic film market has not yet opened, market demand follow-up is insufficient. The ex factory quotation of petrochemical enterprises has declined, and the market trading atmosphere is poor. Merchants shipping blocked, more go with the market, let profit declaration. International crude oil fell in the second half of the month, which brought Limited benefits to PE market. Downstream mentality cautious, wait-and-see mood is strong, the terminal more on-demand to make up for the main, solid offer focused on a single talk.

The upstream ethylene external market rose first and then fell in March, and the recent external ethylene market as a whole showed a downward trend. As of the 25th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at US $1047-1055 per ton, and CFR Southeast Asia closed at US $992-1000 per ton. The price of ethylene market in Europe fluctuated and fell. As of the 25th, FD in northwest Europe closed at US $1219-1233 / T, CIF in northwest Europe closed at US $1199-1208 / T. The price of ethylene in the United States dropped slightly, reaching US $1216-1229 per ton as of the 25th. Recently, the market of ethylene in Europe, the United States and Asia showed a slight downward trend. Generally speaking, the external market of ethylene is cold and the market tends to go down.

On March 29, the opening price of polyethylene futures 2105 was 8645, the highest price was 8810, the lowest price was 8560, the closing price was 8605, the former settlement price was 8580, the settlement price was 8675, up 25, or 0.29%, the trading volume was 459785, the position was 255633, and the daily increase was 6117. (quotation unit: yuan / ton)

At the end of the month, the international crude oil rose slightly, and the futures market turned red, which was good for the market mentality. The two oil stocks are still at a low level year on year. In terms of demand, the operating rate of agricultural film has dropped due to seasonal influence, and the pipe materials and packaging film have improved. However, the mentality of the lower reaches is general, multi-dimensional holds replenishment on demand, and the enthusiasm for entering the market is not good. The operation rate of upstream enterprises continued to maintain a high level, and the output increased slightly. Overall, PE spot market has little room to fall, and it is expected to rise in April or shock.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of sodium bicarbonate has been running at a high level recently. From the beginning of the week to the end of the week, the average price in the domestic market is 1616.67 yuan / ton. On March 25, the commodity index of sodium bicarbonate was 107.30, unchanged from yesterday, down 11.82% from 121.68 (2020-10-21), the highest point in the cycle, and up 21.56% from 88.27, the lowest point on December 22, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2020 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the business community, the price of sodium bicarbonate is running at a high level, and the shipment in the downstream market is fair. At present, the price of sodium bicarbonate in Henan is about 1550-1700 yuan, which is the mainstream quotation in the market. The downstream demand is acceptable. It is expected that the price will be slightly consolidated in the near future. The price of baking soda in Hebei is about 1550-1650 yuan / ton, which is the mainstream price in the market, and the downstream demand is acceptable.

Raw materials: according to the monitoring data of the business community, the domestic soda price is strong. The main market price of light soda is about 1750-1850 yuan / ton. In Central China, the main market price of light soda is about 1600-1750 yuan / ton. In East China, the main market price of light soda is about 1650-1750 yuan / ton. The demand of downstream glass for soda is relatively stable. It is expected that the price of soda will be strong in the short term.

Demand side: downstream medicine, textile and food demand for sodium bicarbonate is fair, and the price of sodium bicarbonate has been strong recently. Analysts from business news agency believe that: in the near future, soda ash as a raw material has been sorted out temporarily and operated strongly, while the demand of downstream market is acceptable. In general, the price of sodium bicarbonate may maintain the consolidation trend in the short term, and the specific demand of downstream market.

The strong rebound in oil prices was abruptly suspended due to signs of weak demand in major markets, the Financial Times website reported March 19, entitled “oil prices have suffered the biggest weekly drop since October last year due to concerns about demand.”. Oil prices have experienced the biggest weekly decline since october2020.

Brent crude oil prices closed down nearly 7 per cent this week to $64.53 a barrel. The US West Texas Intermediate base crude oil price also fell similar to $61.42 a barrel.

The drop, the report said, has put the brakes on the almost uninterrupted rebound in oil prices this year. Since the beginning of November 2020, with the reopening of the world’s measures to lift the epidemic blockade, the prices of Brent crude oil and West Texas Intermediate base crude oil have risen by more than 60%.

But analysts said oil prices had already oversupped after Brent crude broke the $70 a barrel last week, the report said. Traders are focusing again on signs of a resumption of blockade measures in parts of Europe and the continued weakness of real demand between China and the United States.

“I think oil prices are catching up in terms of the actual demand for crude oil from China and the United States,” said Christopher page, senior oil market analyst at Rustad energy in Norway

Meanwhile, US oil stocks have increased as it takes longer than expected for petrochemical plants to return to operation after Texas’s energy production sector has been frozen. The energy information agency reported an increase in oil inventories of 2.4 million barrels.

“The market feels a bit too much for the time being, and macro conditions and general optimism about vaccines have helped to support the rise in oil prices,” said Paul hosnell, head of commodities research at Standard Chartered Bank, the report said. The severe test of the fall in oil prices has been a long time since, so it takes just a few things to act as a catalyst to get the ball rolling. ”

Some analysts say the weakness in the oil market is unlikely to continue. They believe that oil demand could still rebound strongly later this year as the vaccine program accelerated (despite short-term problems in Europe) boosted travel and broader economies.

Analysts say the fall in oil prices may be partly related to the rise in US Treasury yields, which have curbed investors’ risk appetite.

Michael tran, commodity strategist at RBC Capital Markets, advised investors to “wait for the fall to end,” the report said.

“The market is rarely straight and we think global oil demand will see a strong rise in the summer and the current weakness period should not affect our forecast for this outlook,” he said

The report also said that after four consecutive days of falling, Brent crude oil and West Texas Intermediate base crude oil prices rose by about 2% on the 19th, partly because a refinery in Riyadh, Saudi capital, was attacked by drones.

Saudi energy ministry said oil supply was unaffected. But before that, other attacks on the country’s oil facilities have been made in the near future. Iran backed Yemeni Husser claimed responsibility for the attacks.

Goldman Sachs and other Wall Street banks forecast further oil prices to rise, based on long-term concerns that oil demand in major economies around the world is stronger and new supply investment is being cut too much. Goldman said it still believes Brent crude oil prices will rise to $80 a barrel this summer.

Trade name: ammonium sulfate

Latest price: March 19: 916.67 yuan / ton

The main points of analysis were March 19, and the domestic ammonium sulfate was mainly in the process of consolidation. At present, the main factory quotation of powdery ammonium sulfate in Hebei Province is about 800 yuan / ton, that of internal grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong is about 830-850 yuan / ton, and that of internal ammonium sulfate in Hunan is about 1100 yuan / ton. Business agency ammonium sulfate analysts believe that the current regional differences of ammonium sulfate are obvious, and the performance of each region is different. Overall, downstream demand is general, traders mainly watch, downstream manufacturers who take it. It is expected that the price of ammonium sulfate will be mainly adjusted in the short term.

In the BDO market continues to rise, “at a glance of the mountains” after the recent domestic BDO market into a “cooling off period.”. According to the sample data monitored by the business association, as of March 15, the average price of domestic BDO producers was 31150 yuan / ton, up 82.55% month on month and 218.90% year on year. In terms of market price, the mainstream price in East China market is 29000-30800 yuan / ton.

This week, the domestic BDO market fell slightly, with more news about the release of upstream and downstream devices, increased market wait-and-see sentiment, and weak real order trading. The bidding price of Yanchang oil has gradually declined, the view of the middle and lower reaches on the future market is short, and the enthusiasm to enter the market has weakened. The game between the supplier and the demander continued, and some profit makers were negotiating with a narrow margin, and the focus of the negotiation fell.

In terms of units, Dongyuan’s 100000 ton unit load is about 90%, and the catalyst is planned to be replaced in April. Due to the shortage of raw materials, the load of Panjin Dalian was reduced to 50%. The operation of Yanchang oil plant is unstable, and the load is about 30-40%, which is suspended due to unstable hydrogenation. Shaanxi Ronghe plans to restart on March 20. Tianye plans to restart a 60000 ton plant in late March. Great wall energy is scheduled to be overhauled in April, but the time is uncertain. Shaanxi Chemical Co., Ltd. plans to replace the catalyst in April, but the time is uncertain. Xinye plans to replace the catalyst in mid and late March.

In order to maintain the reasonable and healthy development of the whole industrial chain, it is necessary for BDO market to return to rationality. BDO business analysts expect that the domestic BDO market in the short term high volatility.

In the week of March 12, the price of polysilicon continued to rise by 2.50%; since March, the price of polysilicon has increased by nearly 10%. The main reason for the increase is that under the background of stable supply, the demand for downstream silicon wafers continues to increase, and after the price of silicon wafers is increased, the tolerance for the high price of upstream silicon materials is increased. According to the monitoring of business news agency, as of March 12, the mainstream price of domestic polysilicon primary material market was 67000-70000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of imported material was 75000-90000 yuan / ton. At present, the price of polycrystalline silicon has reached the highest point in nearly two years.

At present, the domestic silicon market is still in short supply. Since the middle and last ten days of February, the operating rate of domestic polysilicon manufacturers has tended to be normalized. At present, about 10 domestic polysilicon manufacturers are in normal operation, and only one device is maintained, which affects a small amount of output. Among them, manufacturers in Sichuan, Ordos, Inner Mongolia and other regions contributed about 80% of the output. However, even if silicon material manufacturers started at full speed, it did not bring ease to the supply side. Large enterprises signed orders in good condition. Most large factories signed orders in March, and some began to sign new orders next month. The tight supply of silicon material manufacturers to raise prices to provide a prerequisite. The deep reason is inseparable from the demand side.

The demand for downstream silicon wafers only increases, and the price of silicon wafers continues to rise. Under the cost transmission effect, the tolerance of silicon wafer manufacturers to high price raw materials gradually increases, which does not affect the demand. At the beginning of this month, the leading silicon companies Longji and Zhonghuan announced new brand prices one after another, and the prices rose in an all-round way. This week, the quotation of silicon wafers fluctuated slightly. After the leading enterprises raised their quotation in an all-round way, the whole industry chain was on the rise, and the price rise of silicon wafers eased the cost pressure brought by the early silicon material rise. Moreover, there is a strong demand for silicon wafers in terminal batteries, and silicon wafers are in short supply. The linkage of industrial chain is the fundamental reason for the rise of silicon materials.

According to the business association, the current market logic is that the rise of silicon materials is transmitted to silicon wafers, and then to components. The shortage of raw materials leads to irrational price rise. Moreover, the middle and lower reaches of enterprises begin to gradually reduce the operating rate to relieve the pressure. Later, the demand may be restricted, and the impact on the upstream will gradually appear. Under the game between cost and supply and demand, the upward space of silicon materials is limited It will be compressed to a certain extent, but the supply and demand fundamentals are still good for silicon materials. At least in the near future, the price of silicon materials is easy to rise but difficult to fall.

1、 Price trend of lithium hydroxide

(Figure: p-value curve of lithium hydroxide product)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the market price of lithium hydroxide rose. As of March 7, the average price of domestic industrial grade lithium hydroxide enterprises was 66666.67 yuan / ton, up 3.09% compared with the beginning of the week, 16.28% compared with February 7, and 16.96% compared with the same period last year, according to the data from the business club’s block list.

Recently, the spot supply in the market is tight, the demand side performance is acceptable, the downstream inquiry enthusiasm is improved, the business mentality is firm, and the quotation continuously goes up. According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the price of lithium hydroxide of some enterprises in the near future is summarized as follows: the external quotation of Shanghai Yulun industrial grade lithium hydroxide is 75000 yuan / ton; the quotation of Shanghai oujin industrial grade lithium hydroxide is 72000 yuan / ton, and the quotation of battery grade lithium hydroxide is 75000 yuan / ton. The spot price of the merchants follows the market, and the actual transaction price is mainly through negotiation.

The price of lithium carbonate in East China has risen recently. According to the price monitoring of the business community, as of March 7, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 82800 yuan / ton, which was 6.70% higher than that at the beginning of the month (the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 77600 yuan / ton on March 1). On March 7, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 87800 yuan / ton, which was 6.04% higher than the average price at the beginning of March (the average price of carbon in East China was 82800 yuan / ton).

According to the price monitoring of the business community, on March 5, 2021, in the list of commodity prices, there were 14 kinds of commodities in the chemical industry sector that rose month on month, of which 2 kinds of commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 2.2% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities were sulfuric acid (6.62%), ammonium chloride (5.17%) and hydrochloric acid (2.90%). A total of 14 kinds of commodities declined on a month on month basis, with DOP (- 3.66%), ISO octanol (- 3.52%) and cyclohexanone (- 2.55%) as the top three products. The average daily rise and fall was 0.05%.

3、 Future forecast

According to the lithium hydroxide analysts of business club, the recent cost support is strong, the spot supply is tight, and the demand is good, which supports the mentality of manufacturers. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic industrial lithium hydroxide market may rise, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the market information guidance.